Comments on: ADP Update: Running back stud theory losing popularity?

By: Dub

Dub — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 23:31:55 +0000

Some of the swing toward WRs may have to do with an increasing prevalence of PPR leagues (though a hybrid like LT or West. will dominate even more; maybe even S. Jackson if he can regain 06 form). Also, I think it may have to do with “anchoring” your WR corps with at least one solid guy, then the other two (assuming 3 WRs) can be up and down from week to week but you can count on some production from your #1 (Moss, Wayne, Owens, etc.). Many seasons I’ve aggressively drafted RBs early and often, only to bemoan the fact that I was stuck with Peerless Price, Lavernues C. and Schmo #3–and their 2 catch, 58 yd. games torture me all year.
As for QBs, if you’re in a 6pt per TD pass league (especially if it’s generous with yardage points, like 25 yds/pt.), you witnessed the awesome Fantasy Points display that was Tom Brady last year (and Manning’s the year he set the old TD record). It’s hard to get that out of your mind, come draft day, once the top 3 RBs are gone.

By: smalls

smalls — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 14:43:25 +0000

yes, ‘average’ RBs might be worth less then top WRs but that’s always been the case despite the axiomatic ‘must draft stud RBs’ theory. for instance, in snake drafts the value of WRs will pronounce itself as a new and revolutionary trend. however, in auction leagues it will be the same as it’s always been; you pay $$ for production, bottom line.

when it’s all said and done, i agree with the previous comment that stud RBs are MORE valueable because there’s less of them used exclusively. selecting them is the only way to create distance between your competition.

By: Hal

Hal — Fri, 01 Aug 2008 07:57:11 +0000

I think the opposite is true. Because RB’s are decreasing in production, it becomes even more vital to pick them early. I think there are maybe 5 rb’s in good situations without RBBC, then this vast 2nd tier with RB’s who will vary from 50-75% of the team’s carries. After Fred Taylor, there’s nobody. You don’t want to get stuck with one of the 25% guys as your 2nd, or even 3rd, RB. You still want to pick 3-4 rb’s before the 7th round.

By: Eddie

Eddie — Thu, 31 Jul 2008 14:07:50 +0000

I can confirm this trend. After the big top 5 the remaining RBs status is uncertain or in a definite RBBC. Why go for an uncertain RB when you can get Reggie Wayne, Moss, TO, Edwards, etc….

This preseason will tell us a lot but I think this year we’ll finally see a mixture of RBs and WRs leave the board in the first round.

-Eddie
thefootballmaniac.com

By: Brian

Brian — Wed, 30 Jul 2008 15:47:27 +0000

The reason the RB is losing value is 2 fold. #1) Many teams are using the RBBC approach which is in my opinion the wave of the future and long over due.
#2) todays QB’s are so good that most teams are throwing the ball all over the field and decreasing the role of the RB. Your hybrid RB’s like westbrook and LT are the best bet.

By: b.lee

b.lee — Sat, 26 Jul 2008 14:38:48 +0000

the name of the game has always been “outscoring your opponent” in the past if you didn’t draft 2 studs rb early you would be sunk but with the advent of the rbbc in 75% of the offenses in the league,this has de-valued r/b,once you got outta the top 5 or 6 running backs

so if you wanna win your leagues,you gotta take the best scoring players”despite”position if you wanna win

By: 12 Fantasy Football Quick Reads | Football Jabber

12 Fantasy Football Quick Reads | Football Jabber — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 14:20:07 +0000

[...] something with our Triplets vs. Stud RB Theory and Comparing Draft Theories thoughts. Kevin at the Fantasy Football Calculator Blog has some nice charts that appear to show that ADP trends may be supporting the idea that drafting [...]

By: Lee

Lee — Fri, 25 Jul 2008 03:17:40 +0000

I tell ya Kevin, I have had a couple of drafts recently that I made the move to best available and moved away from the 2 RB’s and it has been hard. We have been programmed with it for so long it makes it tough. Thanks for the linkage!