This blog has been a little slow lately because of preparation for the 2009 season.  It will be more updated for 2009 soon.

I want to point out now an awesome application at Advanced NFL Stats for the NCAA tournament.  It shows a graph for each game with the current probability that either team will win.  It’s hard to describe, but you can check it out here: Live tournament win probability.

The team I picked to win it all, Memphis, almost blew it.  You can see in the time-series win probability that most of the game they had a below 50% chance of winning until the last few minutes.

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