Do You Risk It On A Rookie?
Kevin Day, July 23rd, 2009The Hazean recently wrote about 5 rookies ready to start, which lists the players most likely to be starters at Week 1 this year. The next question is, when exactly do you take them in your draft?
Looking at the 12-team average draft position rankings of some promising rookies, it looks like they haven’t moved much since the dust settled after the NFL draft in April.
Running Backs
Knowshon Moreno is leading all rookies this year. Right now he’s the leading candidate to win the starting job in Denver. As a late fourth-round pick, he could be a steal if he lives up to his potential.
Chris Wells is a slightly bigger risk with Hightower poaching TDs, but he’s a solid RB3 that you can snag in the early 6th round.
Wide Receivers
Michael Crabtree and Percy Harvin each have question marks by their names. With injuries and unknown quarterbacks throwing to them, there are a lot of risks here. Throw in the usual uncertainty involved with rookie wide receivers, and it’s no wonder they’re being drafted in rounds 7 and 9, respectively.
Rookies in 2009?
Last year saw an explosion of rookies with fantasy relevance. Was that a fluke or a new trend? If you’re feeling lucky, you might be able to snag one that carries you to a championship.
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I think last year was a bit of a fluke in terms of impact rookies. A few rookies, like Kevin Smith and Matt Forte, didn’t face any real competition for starting roles. We’ll see if that’s the case this season.
With the NFL trending towards two-back offenses, we may still see some impact rookie running backs, but I think it will be rare for several rookie receivers to have impact seasons like in 2008 (DeSean Jackson, Eddie Royal, Donnie Avery).
Btw, where’s the love for Donald Brown? He may be 2009’s top rookie.
Pat on July 23rd, 2009 at 11:59 pm