Man, there is a ton of interest in mock drafts already this year. Not only did the number of drafts per hour have to increase two weeks ago, but just today required another increase.
There is now a new draft every two minutes, with extra 8, 10, and 14-team drafts every hour. So far that balance seems to be working well.
Have you ever found yourself in round 6 or 7 without a quarterback and think to yourself:
“Hey, there’s a few decent QBs left. I might be able to stock up on a RB or WR now and also sneak a solid QB in the next round. What a steal that would be!”
Well, that’s what I was thinking in this 10-team draft as team #10. At the turn for rounds 5 and 6, I took a gamble that didn’t pay off.
I selected Willie Parker and DeSean Jackson in rounds 5 and 6 with the hope of finding either Romo, Ryan, or McNabb waiting for me in round 7. Alas, they were all gone. I resorted to drafting a quarterback in my personal 3rd tier of QBs, Matt Schaub, in round 8.
As this team stands, I’m not that happy with it, but it’s not too bad. I have tons of depth in RB and WR that could be used as trade bait if needed.
I think this also demonstrates the well-known problem of drafting at the turn. It’s hard to predict what everyone else will do when you have a long time in between picks.
How about you? Ever wait too long for a QB in a mock or real draft? How did it turn out for you?
In 2007, wide receivers with 90+ receptions outnumbered running backs with 300+ carries. That was the first time it happened since 2002.
At the time, it wasn’t clear if it was a fluke or a new trend in how NFL offenses operate. To follow up the original article with data from 2008, it looks like it probably is a trend.
According to Pro-Football-Reference, there were 6 wide receivers with 90 or more receptions while only 5 running backs received 300 or more carries.
Both high-use wide receivers and running backs dipped last year, with running back studs dropping to a low not previously seen this century.
Based on the previous trend in this graph, these two graphs don’t intersect much. There was a running back bubble period where up to a thirteen running backs received 300 carries or more. However, no one is expecting that to happen this year.
Just like the stock market has bull and bear cycles, the NFL appears to have passing and rushing cycles. Since the next couple of years look to be pass-heavy, it’s easy to imagine Jim Cramer screaming “BUY BUY BUY!” on wide receivers.
Just a quick update that starting now there will be more 12-team drafts, since those have been filling up quickly and there’s been a lot of feedback asking for more. There are now 4 additional 12-team drafts every hour.
Hopefully this update will maintain a good balance for the time being. Feel free to leave feedback if you feel they’re getting out of whack again.
Based on a suggestion by Lucas in a previous blog post, I am going to highlight a recent mock draft, give my thoughts, and see what you guys think. Here’s my first attempt.
This 12-team draft (Draft 474683) a few days ago caught my attention because of the variety of WR strategies.
For example, these three teams at the end of the draft varied widely.
Team 10 staggered 3 WR picks over 8 rounds, Team 11 took 3 WRs right away, and Team 12 took 3 wide receivers in a row in rounds 4, 5, and 6.
I think I prefer Team 10’s more balanced approach the best, but the other two teams aren’t too shabby either. If Team 11 gets lucky with some RBs, he could be pretty dangerous with those awesome WRs. Team 12 has a legitimate #1 RB along with the best fantasy QB this year, so they have a solid team as well.
What do you think? If you have a late draft spot, what is your WR strategy?
Even though it’s early in the year, there are still a ton of people practicing for their drafts already. The draft boards have been filling up fast at peak times, which causes a lot of unnecessary waiting.
I’ve just increased the number of 10 and 12 team mock drafts. If you’re curious, here is the current breakdown of drafts per hour:
And a partridge in a pear tree.
But seriously, the drafts now start twice as often (every 2:30 instead of every 5:00) so you should have an easier time getting into the draft you want.
If you have a free membership that saves your mock drafts and imports your team to the Lineup Calculator (and you should, it’s free), you may have noticed that some of your mock drafts didn’t appear in your dashboard.
That problem has been fixed, and you should now see all those missing drafts in your completed draft history table. There was a bug that was fixed and it should now automatically keep up with your drafts as you finish them.
Sorry for the inconvenience. Send me an email (kevin@fantasyfootballcalculator.com) or use the contact page if you have any problems like that in the future.
With the NFL draft so close it’s time to officially kick off the 2009 season here at Fantasy Football Calculator. Here are some site improvements to get you started.
The long awaited rookies have been added. Right now there are 28 rookies listed as free agents. The rest will be added after the draft next weekend.
You can now keep track of the draft even with the window minimized. As the draft progresses, the title bar displays the last draft pick:
The title bar also changes when it’s your turn and counts down your remaining time to draft:
Hopefully this will result in fewer missed picks. It’s especially useful when you’re at work or doing other browsing online.
Starting this season there is now also a free Basic Membership option. This lets you have all of your mock drafts automatically saved for you along with a projected fantasy score for your lineup.
Sign up here to get started. The premium membership still offers all of the features from last year: Saved mock drafts, Draft Calculator, Draft Simulator, Lineup Calculator, User Dashboard, and Custom Projections. Everything is updated for 2009 and ready to go.
See you in the mocks.
I’m pleased to announce new additions to the site. You can now keep track of your mock drafts and save teams in the Lineup Calculator. It’s all part of the 2008 membership package. To get started now, click here.
Mock Drafts
As a member, your mock drafts will be automatically saved for you and will appear in your user page. The Lineup Calculator is used to automatically calculate a predicted score for each team that you draft. In your user page, you can sort the drafts by best projected fantasy score and filter by league size or draft position:
In the table there is a link to the original draft and a color-coded list of your first eight picks for convenience. It’s pretty handy for evaluating draft strategies.
Additionally, clicking on the team name imports the drafted team directly into the Lineup Calculator for further analysis.
Since it’s never too early to think about the playoffs, the average fantasy points for weeks 14 – 16 are included in the table as well.
Lineup Calculator
A membership also includes the ability to save unlimited teams in the Lineup Calculator. Your saved teams are kept separate from your drafts in the user page. During the season, the projections will be updated daily to reflect injuries and recent performance.
If you haven’t tried the Lineup Calculator yet, it’s an easy-to-use tool for evaluating all sorts of scenarios about your lineup. You can evaluate trades, adds, drops, and draft strategies.
Before the season starts, the Lineup Calculator will be upgraded to let you edit the scoring system. At the moment it still uses the default settings. So if you have a PPR league or a 2-QB league, you won’t have to wait much longer. IDP will not be supported, however.
Get Started!
The membershp only costs $12.95 for the entire season. That’s less than $1 per week to gain an advantage in all of your leagues. Sign up now!
Hi! I’m starting this blog to post updates about the site and to write about other fantasy football related thoughts that I have.
First, I’d like to say thank you to everyone who has participated in the mock drafts. It really is the community that makes the drafts useful and fun. I’ve been in a lot of great discussions on fantasy football in the draft rooms.
I started this site three years ago because I wanted a better live mock draft program. I am incredibly pleased that so many people have found the mock drafts as useful as I have.
This year is also the debut of the Lineup Calculator. I’ll have more posts about that later.
If you have questions or thoughts about the site, leave a comment below or send me an email at FFCalc@gmail.com.
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