Bad news.  The cat is out of the bag for several sleeper picks this year.  Make sure you don’t wait too long to snag one of these fast-rising players.

The data below are from 12-team standard-scoring ADP from Sept. 2nd and Sept. 3rd, 2011.

Tim Hightower

He’s got a hold on the starting running back job.  If he can just keep a hold on the football, he could put up his best year ever.

Six weeks ago, Hightower’s ADP was in the 13th round.  Now he’s being drafted at the end of round 5. The Washington offense isn’t going to put up huge numbers this year though, so his upside is limited a bit.

Mike Tolbert

Any way you break down the stats from last year, Tolbert was more productive than Ryan Matthews.  All signs point to a similar year again in the San Diego backfield.  Only this time, most people have caught on and you’ll actually have to spend a 7th round draft pick on Tolbert.

Mario Manningham

The Giants’ receiving corp has been in flux for the past few years, and it can be hard to keep track of who’s got the hot hand.  Hakeem Nicks is the obvious leader, but his ADP is in the 2nd round.  Mario Manningham could end up being a much better value than Nicks this year.

Manningham started slow in 2010, but over the last three games he averaged 5.3 catches, 115 yards, and 1.3 touchdowns.  He’s a late fifth-round pick with a lot of upside.

Philadelphia Defense

And finally, the biggest fantasy draft pick that benefited from free-agency is… the Philadelphia Defense.  After they signed Nnamdi Asomugha and traded for Dominique Rodgers-Cromartie, the Philly D rocketed up 5 rounds to become the #3 fantasy defense by ADP.

With the best cornerbacks in the league, they’ll surely put a stop to the big passing plays they allowed last year.  But will they have much more of a fantasy impact than cutting the points per game allowed?

Last year, Philadelphia was already 3rd in the league in defensive interceptions with 23.  How many can they expect to have this year, 50?  Yes, the improved pass coverage can give the D-line more time to cause sacks (and fumbles).  And maybe they’ll get an additional pick-6 or two.

The problem is that good fantasy defenses aren’t always good in real-life also.  Last year, the #1 fantasy defense was the Arizona Cardinals, who were near the bottom of the league in points allowed per game.  Also, the Raiders were the 3rd-best fantasy defense, and they were an average defense at best.

But wait… didn’t both of those teams have their #1 cornerback sign with the same team this past off-season?  Which team was that again…

It’s time to get up to speed on your signal callers.  This edition of the Fantasy Football Calculator Average Draft Position update will highlight a trend that you need to be aware of.  Many early and late-round quarterbacks are rising in ADP.  If you’re targeting a specific quarterback, he may be drafted sooner than you expect.

(All graphs below use data from 12-team mock drafts, with the most recent update on Sunday, August 21st.)

Late-round Risers

Some of the biggest risers are the young guns Matthew Stafford and Sam Bradford.  They have moved out of the backup fantasy QB role and are now being considered as low-end QB1s as the 12th and 14th QBs taken off of the board.

Another late-round pick that’s getting more popular is Kevin Kolb.  He’s the 15th QB off the board in round 10.  Considering that he has Larry Fitzgerald to throw to, expectations still seem somewhat low for the unproven quarterback.

Early-round Risers

Not only are late-round sleepers climbing out of the cellar, but stud QBs are becoming even more expensive as well.  Drew Brees, Philip Rivers, and Tom Brady are all showing increases in ADP:

Is Anyone Falling?

Yes, there are some quarterbacks who are actually falling in the drafts.  Peyton Manning, due to his latest neck injury concerns, is the most notable quarterback falling in the drafts.  He’s now slipped into the beginning of the fourth round.

In addition to Manning, Jay Cutler and Joe Flacco are getting cheaper to draft every day.  The change in their ADP may be due to lack of upside.  They’ve been passed up by Stafford and Bradford, who both have higher ceilings.

Draft Them Early!

Regardless of who you’re targeting as your fantasy QB, he’s probably increasing in value.  Keep an eye on his ADP and make sure you know when to pull the trigger.

The first average draft position update for 2011 is out!

Below is a list of the top 15 overall players.  You can view the full data on the ADP page.

Not surprisingly, Arian Foster shot up the list and is currently tied with Adrian Peterson for the first overall pick.

Andre Johnson, Calvin Johnson, and Roddy White are the first wide receivers being taken off the board.  Although Andre Johnson is still the #1 receiver, he has dropped from last year when he was being taken at 1.06 on average.  For comparison, you can view the 2010 ADP data on the historical view of the ADP page.

The top quarterback right now is Michael Vick, coming off of his huge comeback year in 2010.  If you want to draft him, you’re going to have to snag him early in the second round.

Of course, these rankings will probably change after the NFL draft and during free agency, so make sure to check the ADP often.

For the third year in a row, wide receivers with 90+ receptions outnumbered running backs with 300+ carries.

Continuing the analysis from 2009 and 2008, below is an updated graph showing the number of high-use WRs and RBs each year:

In 2007, there was a monumental shift that favored stud WRs over stud RBs.  This continued trend is at the heart of why there are so many second round WRs being targeted this year.  If you leave the first two rounds without a stud WR, you may be at a disadvantage.

The WR is the new RB, and it may stay that way for quite a while.

For the past three seasons, Wes Welker has been a reception machine for the Patriots.  His touchdowns may be few, but he’s averaged 115 catches and 1,229 yards since joining New England.

His torn ACL and MCL at the end of last season had many people skeptical of a timely and fully healthy return for 2010.  As a result, Welker was being drafted in the sixth round back in April, and his replacement, Julian Edelman, was being taken just a few draft picks after him.

However, as a continuous stream of good news of Welker’s recovery has come out of Foxboro, Welker and Edelmans’ ADP have slowly drifted apart, as shown in the graph below for 12-team, non-PPR leagues:

Welker is now being drafted at 4.03, and Edelman has plummetted to 10.03.

Welker has risen nearly back to his 2009 ADP, where he was being drafted in the mid-third round at 3.07.  Although he doesn’t appear to be back to 100% yet, he’s now being drafted as if he will be when Week 1 rolls around.

If you were hoping that you could snag him at a discount later in the draft while others were scared off by his injury, you’re too late.  You’ll have to pay full price to get him in your draft this year.

What’s your wide receiver strategy?

If you’re like most other people this year, there is less emphasis on wide receivers in the first round and more emphasis on second round wide receivers.

Thanks to the archived ADP data, we can see that in 2009 for standard 12-team leagues, there were:

• 4 first round WRs
• 4 second round WRs

Fast forward to the 2010 ADP for 12-team standard leagues and we have:

• 3 first round WRs
• 6 second round WRs

The shift could be because people went too crazy with wide receivers last year.  The combination of increased passing and more RBBC in the NFL seems to have caused a mini wide receiver bubble last year.

The lesson from last year may have been that wide receivers are important, but they’re too risky to take in the first round.  The second round offers a much better value for that position this year.

The #1 running back in fantasy football last year has had an up-and-down off-season, at least as far as his fantasy value is concerned.

The combination of his strong pre-season performance and Jonathan Stewart’s injury status has resulted in a slow dip and sharp rise in Williams’ ADP.  In 12-team leagues, he is being drafted at 1.07, right behind Larry Fitzgerald.

There are a lot of questions about whether or not he can repeat his league-leading 18 touchdowns last year.  His great year-end stats hide the fact that he only had 2 TDs in the first 7 games. Is he for real, or did he just take advantage of a few bad defenses at the end of the year?

Fun Trivia

One other thing going for DeAngelo Williams is the fact that since 2000, a stud running back has been the #1 fantasy running back two years in a row.

This article from Fantasy Football Cafe shows that it was Marshall Faulk in 00/01, Priest Holmes in 02/03, Shaun Alexander in 04/05, and LT in 06/07.

Since D-Will was #1 in 2008, does that make him a lock as #1 in 2009?

Not only is Randy Moss snagging touchdowns in preseason, but he also just caught Andre Johnson in the ADP rankings.

Below is a graph of his ADP in 12-team leagues.  He’s slowly but surely been catching up to the Houston star since April.

Although Brady had a small injury scare, his shoulder looks to be okay.  Matt Schaub may be more of an injury risk than Brady at this point, and that could be keeping A.J.’s value from going higher than it is now.

The single-season TD reception holder may still be a steal as the #2 WR off the board.  He’s unlikely to reach 22 touchdowns, but it’s exciting to know that his ceiling is so high.

If so, your dreams may have been smashed.  The talented and promising running back that many thought would carry the load for the Bucs this year may now be part of a complicated platoon that includes Cadillac Williams.

That Rotoworld article has a good breakdown of what could be one of the more important fantasy football-related moves this week.  With a new trend of players taking one or even two wide receivers at the start of their fantasy football draft, Ward has frequently been though of as a solid RB3, and even an RB2 for those more desperate.

Ward’s average draft position has not been steady as drafters have tried to pin down his role this year.  It’s alternated between the late fourth round and the mid-fifth round for 12-team leagues.

Currently at an ADP of 4.11, expect that graph to dip back down again, perhaps as low as the 6th or 7th round.  When you hear the coach describe the running back carries distributed in a 2-2-1 ratio…

“..the starter will get two series, followed by another back playing the next two series and a third getting a single series.”

it’s time to run the other direction. Guys like McFadden and Larry Johnson have their own question marks, but they should at least get the playing time they need to play a valuable role on your roster.

This week created a lot of churn in the quarterback rankings. In order to get a grip on all of it for your draft, make sure to review the latest ADP for quarterbacks.

For convenience, here it is below.  This includes data from 12-team drafts on only Thursday, August 20th. Keep in mind that these rankings could change quickly though depending on how the preseason plays out.

New King

By the slimmest of margins, Tom Brady is neck-and-neck with Drew Brees, and possibly slightly ahead. Not much of a surprise given Brady’s solid game that has eased fears of his knee injury lingering.

Sick of Favre Yet?

Well, there are enough drafters who aren’t sick of him.  Brett Favre is going as the #14 quarterback right now, right after Roethlisberger and before Hasselbeck.  For 12-team leagues, he’s beeing treated as a high-end QB#2.

The good news is that if you had been targeting Hasselbeck as a sleeper backup quarterback, your chances of drafting him have increased a bit.  The bad news is that if you drafted Sage Rosenfels while Favre was “retired,” you’re probably a little ticked off right now.

Hope for Vick?

Vick is getting some attention, and as the 22nd QB off the board, some people are taking a chance on him as a backup.

Poor Bulger

With the news of Marc Bulger injuring his finger, he has dropped from the 24th QB to the 29th.  He is currently targeted to be back by the regular season opener, but this injury puts a dent in his and the rest of the Rams’ fantasy value. He isn’t an amazing quarterback, but he is a league above his replacement, Kyle Boller.

More Changes to Come…

The only constant in the NFL is that nothing is constant.  Between injuries, comebacks, and competition, the quarterback you are excited about drafting today may be yesterday’s news tomorrow. A mock draft or two is a great way to stay on top of the trends and ahead of your competition.