Tom Brady had a strong first outing against the Eagles, and it may have earned him the top spot among fantasy quarterbacks.

In 10-team ADP, Brady just beat out Drew Brees using data from drafts on August 19th.

That last column is their overall draft position.  Brady is going at 15.0 on average and Brees at 15.2.  A virtual tie. In 12-team leagues it’s the exact opposite with Brees a hair ahead of Brady.

Dead Heat

It’s a close race between the two right now, but another strong preseason game from Brady may solidify his top spot.

On Draft Day Eve, visions of 50 TDs are floating in fantasy players’ heads…

The Philadelphia Eagles took a chance on Michael Vick. Will you?

From the Eagles

Andy Reid had said that Vick will contribute this year.  He said that both McNabb and Kolb’s jobs are not in jeopardy, and that with Vick’s talent with running and throwing, he’ll find some way to get him on the field.

Vick’s ADP

Right now, Vick is being drafted in the 13th round of 12-team mock drafts.  This data includes some drafts that occurred before the signing was announced, so this position may change within the next few days.  He’s going between Joe Flacco and Brady Quinn right now.

Worth a flier?

It’s hard to say if his value will go up or down the news.  It sounds like the Eagles are looking forward to getting him on the field, but he’s definitely not going to be a starting QB this year.  He may end up as more of a tight end or be active in Wildcat-type plays.

He is still likely to be suspended from games for the first 5 weeks of the season, so his value has a ceiling.  Vick may have a greater fantasy value to you by distracting people in your draft who haven’t paid much attention in the past couple of years.  Cross your fingers that one of your friends grabs him in the 5th round.

What goes through your head when you draft your WR3?  Are you safely filling a roster spot or plotting to find a diamond in the rough?

A lively discussion at Fantasy Football Cafe asked this exact question.  It started out by getting feedback on late round WRs and by page 3 evolved into a philosophical debate. The thread did such a great job covering each side that it’s worth quoting parts here:

Risk and Reward Strategy

In favor of a bold strategy was Kensat30, a longtime member of the Cafe:

“Derrick Mason and Donald Driver are the model of consistency. Do I want them as my WR3? Hell no.
…Devin Hester and Ted Ginn aren’t bye week players, those guys are potentially the next Javon Walker or Steve Smith.”

This strategy views every pick as an opportunity to draft an amazing, championship-winning player.  Taking a player with a low ceiling means missing a chance at a big winner.  In shallow leagues, waiver wire players can often fill in respectably if a risky player totally bombs.

Steady Freddy Strategy

In rebuttal, mattUTD20 replied:

“I think it is pretty foolish just to write off the older guys who have been around the block a few times because of whatever misconception you have of them. Too many people spend too much of their time looking for that pipe dream WR1 in the 10th round.”

The cold-hard facts show that it’s unlikely that a given player in the 10th round will turn into a star. That’s why they’re in the 10th round to begin with.  If you draft your WR3 trying to get a WR1, you may end up with a zero instead.

ADP Comparision

Here is a comparison of the ADP trends of some old guys (Mason and Driver) versus some young guys (Harvin and Ginn) that can all be had in the 8th/9th round of 12-team drafts:

Harvin is the only player moving, but he’ll likely stop in the 8th round for now.  If he makes some big flashy plays this preseason, his value could climb even more.

It is a little odd to see players on such opposite ends of the risk spectrum so close together in ADP.  There is definitely more upside to the younger players, but it requires skill and luck to actually land a great wide receiver who pans out.

To Each His Own

Risk is a big factor in fantasy football, and it should be managed with care.  It’s important to think about which strategy you think will work best for you, because drafts can be won and lost by late round picks.

There is a minor buzz around Eddie Royal these days.  Partly because he’s been playing well, and partly because of doubts surrounding Brandon Marshall.  Marshall wasn’t even listed as one of the top 3 receivers on Denver’s most recent depth chart.  His leg injury and the recent talk that Eddie Royal will be taking a bigger role in the offense have kept him from participating fully at practice.

Looking at the average draft position for both receivers, it appears that Royal is creeping up a bit.  For 12-team drafts, Marshall is going at 4.02 while Royal is being drafted at 5.10.

Ever since Marshall’s blog post vaguely declaring that it is “time for a change”, the trade rumors have been holding back his value relative to his actual talent.  Throw in an injury that has sidelined him since August 2, and it is only a matter of time before his value starts to drop.  Fantasy owners are going to want to see some progress both with his leg and with getting along with his team (whichever one he ends up with).

It’s likely that Royal will continue to climb in the rankings.  He showed a lot of promise last year going for 980 yards and 5 TDs.  Even though Orton is less talented than Cutler, the porous Denver defense will likely keep the offense in a lot of passing situations.

Wide receivers are already hard to predict.  Throw in huge lineup changes to the team and you make it even more difficult to guess how a player might perform this year.

Two such players with huge question marks by their names this year are Roy Williams and Chad Ocho Cinco.  They both happen to be going in the mid-fourth round for 12-team drafts at 4.03 and 4.05 respectively.  Below are their ADP trends since the NFL draft this year.

With T.O. leaving a huge hole to fill in Dallas, Roy Williams has all the opportunities in the world to step up.  Things seemed to be shaky at first, but there are reports that Romo and Williams are starting to click.

Chad Ocho Cinco is, well, just being Chad.  Although he’s entertaining and active online, there are concerns about his effort level, Carson Palmer’s health, and the absence of T.J. Houshmandzadeh.  Coles should do well to take some heat off of Chad, but he’s anything but a sure thing this year.

The Hazean recently wrote about 5 rookies ready to start, which lists the players most likely to be starters at Week 1 this year.  The next question is, when exactly do you take them in your draft?

Looking at the 12-team average draft position rankings of some promising rookies, it looks like they haven’t moved much since the dust settled after the NFL draft in April.

Running Backs

Knowshon Moreno is leading all rookies this year.  Right now he’s the leading candidate to win the starting job in Denver.  As a late fourth-round pick, he could be a steal if he lives up to his potential.

Chris Wells is a slightly bigger risk with Hightower poaching TDs, but he’s a solid RB3 that you can snag in the early 6th round.

Wide Receivers

Michael Crabtree and Percy Harvin each have question marks by their names.  With injuries and unknown quarterbacks throwing to them, there are a lot of risks here.  Throw in the usual uncertainty involved with rookie wide receivers, and it’s no wonder they’re being drafted in rounds 7 and 9, respectively.

Rookies in 2009?

Last year saw an explosion of rookies with fantasy relevance.  Was that a fluke or a new trend?  If you’re feeling lucky, you might be able to snag one that carries you to a championship.

Two very different players.

Two wildly different paths to success.

And they have the same average draft position.

Philip Rivers vs. Kurt Warner

What goes through your head when you debate whether to draft Philip Rivers or Kurt Warner?  Although Warner used to be ahead of Rivers, they are now both going at the end of the fourth round in 12 team mock drafts at 4.11.  Below are their ADP trends.

Philip Rivers

Last year, Rivers took a huge step forward.  He threw for 4009/39/11 as compared to his 3152/21/15 in 2007.  As an early 1st round pick in 2005, the expectations have always been high for Rivers.  He is also reliable, starting in all 16 games for each of the past three years.

Kurt Warner

Warner had a comeback season last year, throwing for 4583/30/14.  It was also the first time he started 16 games in a season since 2001 with the Rams.  He’s a scrappy player who fought his way into the league and back into a starting role with the Cardinals.  Even though he gets to throw to the most dangerous receiver in the NFL, his durability is a major concern to fantasy owners.

Conclusion

Both have upside, but only Philip Rivers has consistency on his side.  Neither player is a bad pick for late in the fourth round though.  Your tolerance for risk may be the biggest factor in who you decide for your team.

Although the Green Bay Packers lost their star Brett Favre last year, not much changed in the Green Bay offense.  Compare the stats of Aaron Rodgers 2008 to Favre 2007:

Rodgers (2008): 4038 yds, 28 TDs, 13 INTs

Favre (2007): 4155 yds, 28 TDs, 15 INTs

Rodgers’ success was a surprise to many, but he’s clearly not surprising anyone this year.  He and the other stars of the Packer offense are all being drafted between the 2nd and 4th rounds this year, as their ADP graph shows.

There has been some fluctuation in their values with with Greg Jennings and Aaron Rodgers rising slightly.

Overall it looks like most drafters are anticipating repeat seasons from these three cheese heads.  Might some of them be overvalued or undervalued though?

Ryan Grant reached 1203 yards on 312 carries last year, but had a disappointing 4 touchdowns.  Jennings was hot at the start last year, but cooled off at the end.  Rodgers needs to prove that his one year with Favre-like stats wasn’t a fluke.

These three players are going to be key to many fantasy teams this year, and each has a lot of upside.  If they can be a little more consistent then they could become a fantasy powerhouse.  They sure have the talent for it.

It’s been a couple weeks since Brian Westbrook’s ankle surgery was announced, and fantasy footballers everywhere reacted immediately.

After his value dropped almost one full round, it has held steady since then.  Here is his average draft position for 12-team leagues:

As you can see, a consensus on Brian Westbrook was arrived at quickly.  He is now sandwiched between Frank Gore and Brandon Jacobs.

Even though he’s already a known injury risk, there are plenty of people willing to snag Westbrook in the early 2nd round.  If he heals quickly and remains healthy, he could end up a steal for those who take the risk.

In 2007, wide receivers with 90+ receptions outnumbered running backs with 300+ carries.  That was the first time it happened since 2002.

At the time, it wasn’t clear if it was a fluke or a new trend in how NFL offenses operate.  To follow up the original article with data from 2008, it looks like it probably is a trend.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, there were 6 wide receivers with 90 or more receptions while only 5 running backs received 300 or more carries.

Both high-use wide receivers and running backs dipped last year, with running back studs dropping to a low not previously seen this century.

Based on the previous trend in this graph, these two graphs don’t intersect much.  There was a running back bubble period where up to a thirteen running backs received 300 carries or more.  However, no one is expecting that to happen this year.

Just like the stock market has bull and bear cycles, the NFL appears to have passing and rushing cycles.  Since the next couple of years look to be pass-heavy, it’s easy to imagine Jim Cramer screaming “BUY BUY BUY!” on wide receivers.