ADP Update: Aging Wide Receivers

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There were twelve rookie wide receivers selected in the first two rounds of the NFL draft this year, and much has been written about their landing spots and potential production in their first year.

However, the heavy focus on rookies may be an opportunity for savvy fantasy football drafters to find older veterans at a discount.  This ADP update focuses on a few of these aging wide receivers and their current ADP in redraft 12-team standard leagues.

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Wes Welker (DEN), ADP - 4.05

Welker had a hot start to 2013, scoring 8 touchdowns in the first 6 weeks.  However, he slowed down in the second half of the season and missed the last three games due to a concussion. At age 33, he should have enough gas left in the tank to get through one more season.  The Bronco's loss of Eric Decker and addition of Emmanuel Sanders will probably not have a net effect on Welker.   The only thing to be concerned about is a slight regression to the mean for an offense that scored a record 55 passing touchdowns last year.

Larry Fitzgerald (ARI), ADP - 4.06

Fitzgerald, one of the most talented wide receivers in the league, has been held back by sub-par quarterback play for the past two years.  However, Carson Palmer and the rest of Cardinals' offense started to click toward the end of last season once they adjusted to Bruce Arian's complex offense.  Early reports say that this year the team is "light years" ahead of where they were last year, so that momentum should continue into this 2014.

Andre Johnson (HOU), ADP - 4.11

Andre Johnson is another top-notch talent whose fantasy production has been limited by bad quarterback play.  However, his situation has not improved, and he's skipping OTAs in what could turn into a prolonged holdout.  He has a few too many question marks to make it worth gambling on him with a 4th round draft pick.

Roddy White (ATL), ADP - 5.05

Roddy White was a 3rd round fantasy draft pick last year before he suffered an ankle injury that caused him to end his consecutive games played streak at 133.  White has typically had a reputation for being reliable though, and if he plays all 16 games, he should be a lock for 85 receptions, 1200 yards, and 8 TDs.  He could be a great value pick in the 5th round of your draft this year.

Conclusion

These veteran receivers have all previously been valued higher than their current ADP at some point in the past.  They could provide high-upside WR2 value for you this year if you adopt a RB/RB strategy in the first two rounds.  Try a mock draft now to see where you can draft them.

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Categories: ADP, advice