Although the Green Bay Packers lost their star Brett Favre last year, not much changed in the Green Bay offense.  Compare the stats of Aaron Rodgers 2008 to Favre 2007:

Rodgers (2008): 4038 yds, 28 TDs, 13 INTs

Favre (2007): 4155 yds, 28 TDs, 15 INTs

Rodgers’ success was a surprise to many, but he’s clearly not surprising anyone this year.  He and the other stars of the Packer offense are all being drafted between the 2nd and 4th rounds this year, as their ADP graph shows.

There has been some fluctuation in their values with with Greg Jennings and Aaron Rodgers rising slightly.

Overall it looks like most drafters are anticipating repeat seasons from these three cheese heads.  Might some of them be overvalued or undervalued though?

Ryan Grant reached 1203 yards on 312 carries last year, but had a disappointing 4 touchdowns.  Jennings was hot at the start last year, but cooled off at the end.  Rodgers needs to prove that his one year with Favre-like stats wasn’t a fluke.

These three players are going to be key to many fantasy teams this year, and each has a lot of upside.  If they can be a little more consistent then they could become a fantasy powerhouse.  They sure have the talent for it.

Man, there is a ton of interest in mock drafts already this year.  Not only did the number of drafts per hour have to increase two weeks ago, but just today required another increase.

There is now a new draft every two minutes, with extra 8, 10, and 14-team drafts every hour.  So far that balance seems to be working well.

It’s been a couple weeks since Brian Westbrook’s ankle surgery was announced, and fantasy footballers everywhere reacted immediately.

After his value dropped almost one full round, it has held steady since then.  Here is his average draft position for 12-team leagues:

As you can see, a consensus on Brian Westbrook was arrived at quickly.  He is now sandwiched between Frank Gore and Brandon Jacobs.

Even though he’s already a known injury risk, there are plenty of people willing to snag Westbrook in the early 2nd round.  If he heals quickly and remains healthy, he could end up a steal for those who take the risk.

Have you ever found yourself in round 6 or 7 without a quarterback and think to yourself:

“Hey, there’s a few decent QBs left.  I might be able to stock up on a RB or WR now and also sneak a solid QB in the next round. What a steal that would be!”

Well, that’s what I was thinking in this 10-team draft as team #10. At the turn for rounds 5 and 6, I took a gamble that didn’t pay off.

I selected Willie Parker and DeSean Jackson in rounds 5 and 6 with the hope of finding either Romo, Ryan, or McNabb waiting for me in round 7.  Alas, they were all gone.  I resorted to drafting a quarterback in my personal 3rd tier of QBs, Matt Schaub, in round 8.

As this team stands, I’m not that happy with it, but it’s not too bad.  I have tons of depth in RB and WR that could be used as trade bait if needed.

I think this also demonstrates the well-known problem of drafting at the turn.  It’s hard to predict what everyone else will do when you have a long time in between picks.

How about you?  Ever wait too long for a QB in a mock or real draft?  How did it turn out for you?

There is going to be a period of planned maintenance downtime on Wednesday, June 24, from 5:00 to 8:00 AM EST.  Mock drafts will be unavailable during the downtime.

There have been so many people eager to practice for their draft this year, the downtime will be used to upgrade the site so that it can be ready for the upcoming draft season.

Sorry for the late notice, and thanks for your patience!

[Edit: The downtime went fine and the drafts were back online by 7:45 AM. ]

In 2007, wide receivers with 90+ receptions outnumbered running backs with 300+ carries.  That was the first time it happened since 2002.

At the time, it wasn’t clear if it was a fluke or a new trend in how NFL offenses operate.  To follow up the original article with data from 2008, it looks like it probably is a trend.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, there were 6 wide receivers with 90 or more receptions while only 5 running backs received 300 or more carries.

Both high-use wide receivers and running backs dipped last year, with running back studs dropping to a low not previously seen this century.

Based on the previous trend in this graph, these two graphs don’t intersect much.  There was a running back bubble period where up to a thirteen running backs received 300 carries or more.  However, no one is expecting that to happen this year.

Just like the stock market has bull and bear cycles, the NFL appears to have passing and rushing cycles.  Since the next couple of years look to be pass-heavy, it’s easy to imagine Jim Cramer screaming “BUY BUY BUY!” on wide receivers.

Just a quick update that starting now there will be more 12-team drafts, since those have been filling up quickly and there’s been a lot of feedback asking for more.  There are now 4 additional 12-team drafts every hour.

Hopefully this update will maintain a good balance for the time being.  Feel free to leave feedback if you feel they’re getting out of whack again.

The typical mantra that running backs are the corner stone of a fantasy football team is slowly fading away.  Even now, with minimal action happening in the NFL, wide receivers are creeping up further in ADP rankings at the expense of running backs.

Here you can see Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson passing Clinton Portis and Marion Barber in 12-team drafts over the past two months.

The driving force for this shift seems to be a perceived lack of quality WRs.  In years past, it wouldn’t be uncommon to see running backs taken in 11 out of 12, or even 12 out of 12 picks in the first round.  This year, there are already 3 wide receivers in the top 12 in ADP (Fitz, Johnson, Moss), and Calvin Johnson is knocking at the door.

The combination of increased passing in the NFL along with more running back committees is making the reliable wide receivers pretty valuable. If you’re used to stocking up on running backs, this might be a good time to evaluate how you’ll structure your team this year.

Based on a suggestion by Lucas in a previous blog post, I am going to highlight a recent mock draft, give my thoughts, and see what you guys think.  Here’s my first attempt.

This 12-team draft (Draft 474683) a few days ago caught my attention because of the variety of WR strategies.

For example, these three teams at the end of the draft varied widely.

Team 10 staggered 3 WR picks over 8 rounds, Team 11 took 3 WRs right away, and Team 12 took 3 wide receivers in a row in rounds 4, 5, and 6.

I think I prefer Team 10’s more balanced approach the best, but the other two teams aren’t too shabby either.  If Team 11 gets lucky with some RBs, he could be pretty dangerous with those awesome WRs.  Team 12 has a legitimate #1 RB along with the best fantasy QB this year, so they have a solid team as well.

What do you think?  If you have a late draft spot, what is your WR strategy?

The flash-and-dash Reggie Bush has just dropped below Pierre Thomas in fantasy football average draft rankings. The graph below shows their ADP trends in 10-team mock drafts.

You can now draft either one in the mid 4th round.  What’s surprising is that Reggie’s value has not decreased much.  The switch has mostly been due to an increase in Pierre Thomas‘ value.

Just yesterday, fantasy writer Tom Kessenich said on Twitter that Thomas could be a monster this year.  Good timing on his part.  Looks like he’s on to something.

The cat is out of the bag now though.  For non-PPR leagues, there is a difficult choice to make between the two Saints running backs.

It will be interesting to see how each of their draft rankings change this summer.  Bush is coming off of knee surgery, and Thomas bruised his left wrist this past Saturday.  With these injuries, this battle may be decided in the trainer’s room.