Hey everyone!  The NFL season is winding down, so you know what that means.  Get a head start on the 2010 fantasy football season.

The mock drafts are open for business!  Get started now.

The rankings and ADP will take a few days to fully adjust, so feel free to leave comments in the draft room if you think someone is out of place.

The #1 running back in fantasy football last year has had an up-and-down off-season, at least as far as his fantasy value is concerned.

The combination of his strong pre-season performance and Jonathan Stewart’s injury status has resulted in a slow dip and sharp rise in Williams’ ADP.  In 12-team leagues, he is being drafted at 1.07, right behind Larry Fitzgerald.

There are a lot of questions about whether or not he can repeat his league-leading 18 touchdowns last year.  His great year-end stats hide the fact that he only had 2 TDs in the first 7 games. Is he for real, or did he just take advantage of a few bad defenses at the end of the year?

Fun Trivia

One other thing going for DeAngelo Williams is the fact that since 2000, a stud running back has been the #1 fantasy running back two years in a row.

This article from Fantasy Football Cafe shows that it was Marshall Faulk in 00/01, Priest Holmes in 02/03, Shaun Alexander in 04/05, and LT in 06/07.

Since D-Will was #1 in 2008, does that make him a lock as #1 in 2009?

Not only is Randy Moss snagging touchdowns in preseason, but he also just caught Andre Johnson in the ADP rankings.

Below is a graph of his ADP in 12-team leagues.  He’s slowly but surely been catching up to the Houston star since April.

Although Brady had a small injury scare, his shoulder looks to be okay.  Matt Schaub may be more of an injury risk than Brady at this point, and that could be keeping A.J.’s value from going higher than it is now.

The single-season TD reception holder may still be a steal as the #2 WR off the board.  He’s unlikely to reach 22 touchdowns, but it’s exciting to know that his ceiling is so high.

If so, your dreams may have been smashed.  The talented and promising running back that many thought would carry the load for the Bucs this year may now be part of a complicated platoon that includes Cadillac Williams.

That Rotoworld article has a good breakdown of what could be one of the more important fantasy football-related moves this week.  With a new trend of players taking one or even two wide receivers at the start of their fantasy football draft, Ward has frequently been though of as a solid RB3, and even an RB2 for those more desperate.

Ward’s average draft position has not been steady as drafters have tried to pin down his role this year.  It’s alternated between the late fourth round and the mid-fifth round for 12-team leagues.

Currently at an ADP of 4.11, expect that graph to dip back down again, perhaps as low as the 6th or 7th round.  When you hear the coach describe the running back carries distributed in a 2-2-1 ratio…

“..the starter will get two series, followed by another back playing the next two series and a third getting a single series.”

it’s time to run the other direction. Guys like McFadden and Larry Johnson have their own question marks, but they should at least get the playing time they need to play a valuable role on your roster.

The Twitter feed on the news page now includes new NFL players:

• Andre Johnson
• Pierre Thomas
• Ray Rice
• Greg Olsen
• Dustin Keller
• Darren McFadden
• Reggie Bush
• Eddie Royal

Also, to avoid Chad or T.O. from clogging up the whole page with their massive tweets, it’s now limited to the 5 most recent tweets per person. That’s resulted in a better mix of players’ tweets.

The fantasy football news aggregation page is back up after being down for over a day.  There had been some problems on Twitter’s end last week that caused the Twitter feed to be disabled, but everything is running smoothly now.

The top two posts from Fantasy Football Chatter right now are articles from 12-step drop on revised QB rankings with Favre back in the mix, and a great summary from Fantasy Football Fools on Broncos, Bills, Bears and Bowe.

Then there is of course the live Twitter feed of select fantasy-relevant NFL players.  Here is Matt Hasselbeck snapping a picture of one of his offensive lineman on a boat:

This week created a lot of churn in the quarterback rankings. In order to get a grip on all of it for your draft, make sure to review the latest ADP for quarterbacks.

For convenience, here it is below.  This includes data from 12-team drafts on only Thursday, August 20th. Keep in mind that these rankings could change quickly though depending on how the preseason plays out.

New King

By the slimmest of margins, Tom Brady is neck-and-neck with Drew Brees, and possibly slightly ahead. Not much of a surprise given Brady’s solid game that has eased fears of his knee injury lingering.

Sick of Favre Yet?

Well, there are enough drafters who aren’t sick of him.  Brett Favre is going as the #14 quarterback right now, right after Roethlisberger and before Hasselbeck.  For 12-team leagues, he’s beeing treated as a high-end QB#2.

The good news is that if you had been targeting Hasselbeck as a sleeper backup quarterback, your chances of drafting him have increased a bit.  The bad news is that if you drafted Sage Rosenfels while Favre was “retired,” you’re probably a little ticked off right now.

Hope for Vick?

Vick is getting some attention, and as the 22nd QB off the board, some people are taking a chance on him as a backup.

Poor Bulger

With the news of Marc Bulger injuring his finger, he has dropped from the 24th QB to the 29th.  He is currently targeted to be back by the regular season opener, but this injury puts a dent in his and the rest of the Rams’ fantasy value. He isn’t an amazing quarterback, but he is a league above his replacement, Kyle Boller.

More Changes to Come…

The only constant in the NFL is that nothing is constant.  Between injuries, comebacks, and competition, the quarterback you are excited about drafting today may be yesterday’s news tomorrow. A mock draft or two is a great way to stay on top of the trends and ahead of your competition.

Tom Brady had a strong first outing against the Eagles, and it may have earned him the top spot among fantasy quarterbacks.

In 10-team ADP, Brady just beat out Drew Brees using data from drafts on August 19th.

That last column is their overall draft position.  Brady is going at 15.0 on average and Brees at 15.2.  A virtual tie. In 12-team leagues it’s the exact opposite with Brees a hair ahead of Brady.

Dead Heat

It’s a close race between the two right now, but another strong preseason game from Brady may solidify his top spot.

On Draft Day Eve, visions of 50 TDs are floating in fantasy players’ heads…

Due to the high demand and the draft rooms filling up very quickly, the drafts have now increased from one every 45 seconds to one every 30 seconds. That’s an increase from 80 drafts an hour to 120 drafts an hour.

So far they’re still filling up, but the wait time is cut down to about 5 minutes or less. If they start filling up too quickly, more can be added.

The Philadelphia Eagles took a chance on Michael Vick. Will you?

From the Eagles

Andy Reid had said that Vick will contribute this year.  He said that both McNabb and Kolb’s jobs are not in jeopardy, and that with Vick’s talent with running and throwing, he’ll find some way to get him on the field.

Vick’s ADP

Right now, Vick is being drafted in the 13th round of 12-team mock drafts.  This data includes some drafts that occurred before the signing was announced, so this position may change within the next few days.  He’s going between Joe Flacco and Brady Quinn right now.

Worth a flier?

It’s hard to say if his value will go up or down the news.  It sounds like the Eagles are looking forward to getting him on the field, but he’s definitely not going to be a starting QB this year.  He may end up as more of a tight end or be active in Wildcat-type plays.

He is still likely to be suspended from games for the first 5 weeks of the season, so his value has a ceiling.  Vick may have a greater fantasy value to you by distracting people in your draft who haven’t paid much attention in the past couple of years.  Cross your fingers that one of your friends grabs him in the 5th round.