I mentioned last week that I’m a fan of Pro Football Prospectus, and this year’s edition is definitely worthwhile.

One article that I find interesting is the study of how a wide receiver’s height and BMI can be an indicator of success.

The way they predict success is by determining whether or not a player falls into one of four sections on a chart of height versus BMI. The study pooled data from the past ten years and compared players by looking at average yards per game.

Here is a rough sketch of their complete graph with some representative players shown:

The theory is that if a player falls into one of the four boxes, they have a decent chance of being a top wide receiver. Conversely, if a player doesn’t have a body type that fits into one of the four boxes, then they have only a small chance of being an elite receiver.

If you’re wondering how big these relative differences in body type are, below I added myself for comparison. At 6′ 2″ and 170 lbs, I fall just a bit on the light side of a successful NFL wide receiver:

This article is by far the most extensive study I’ve seen on how well body type can predict success. I am a little hesitant at the moment to take the results as fact though.

The main reason is that I don’t think there is enough data to justify drawing four separate zones on this graph. The theory is probably overfitting the data. For example, the height difference between the top and bottom zones is only two inches.

Second, I’m not convinced there is a legitimate football-related reason why these narrow zones of body type would be successful and others wouldn’t. Especially that dead zone in the middle. Is there a reason why a player with that height/BMI combination is less likely to be successful?

The article suggests that the reason for these zones is that they identify which body types are able to get separation from cornerbacks and which are useful as large targets for a quarterback. They also propose that looking at the body types of defensive backs could help determine if these wide receiver body types create favorable mismatches.

Although I’m skeptical, I’m always on the lookout for hidden trends and new ways to predict successful players. I’m going to watch this one for the next few years to see if these body type trends continue.

If a new successful player emerges with a body type that is right in the middle of those four zones, I think this theory is busted. If not, and the trends continue, this could be a real way to predict success within a group of players that is usually just a crap shoot.

If anyone is interested in fantasy football auctions, FantasyAuctioneer has written an article about recent auction values of players. He notes that Randy Moss and Tom Brady have lower values in auctions than they do in drafts. Interesting read, especially if you’re doing an auction this year.

There have been a couple articles lately by Football Jabber and CBS Sports about how the traditional RB stud theory might not be the best strategy this season. The most recent ADP trends support this position because second round wide receivers such as Reggie Wayne and Braylon Edwards are increasing in value. Below are their ADP trends for 10-team leagues:

At the same time, second round running backs Larry Johnson and Willis McGahee are decreasing in value in mock drafts:

It’s hard to tell if a decreased interest in running backs is causing drafters to try different strategies, or if drafters’ strategies are causing running backs’ values to fall.

Either way, there are a lot of interesting mock draft strategies this year. It’s no longer as easy as taking the best RB available early on.

Let’s take a look at the top four tight ends. In mock drafts so far, Antonio Gates is #1 at 5.03 (10-team), Witten at 5.04, Winslow at 6.02, and Gonzalez at 7.01. The ADP graph for these four players shows there hasn’t been much movement, except for Witten who could actually overtake Gates as the #1 TE.

Although there’s a 2-round gap separating these players, their stats from last year were all pretty similar (stats via pro-football-reference):

Gates: 984 yds, 9 TDs: 152 Fantasy Points

Witten: 1145 yds, 7 TDs: 156 FP

Winslow: 1106 yds, 5 TDs: 157 FP

Gonzalez: 1172 yds, 5 TDs: 147 FP

Since only 10 fantasy points separated them last year, there must be either high expectations for Gates and Witten, or predicted declines for Winslow and Gonzalez.

Admin Note

On an administrative side note, the ADP graphs no longer have a weird spike for some players. The graphs are a lot easier to read now.

You’ve probably noticed that the mock drafts aren’t open right now. There’s a temporary problem with a hosting company the site uses that should be resolved around 6 – 7 PM EST.

I’m working on solving the problem so that the drafts can operate even if this issue occurs again.

Sorry for the inconvience, you should be drafting again in no time.

(Edit: 7:18 PM) Drafts are back online!

Willie Parker’s ADP is dropping like a rock.

The latest update of the ADP data shows that Willie Parker’s average draft position is dangerously close to the 5th round (4.09) for 10-team leagues. Before the NFL draft he was being taken in the mid-second round:

Parker is now firmly in the range of poor #2 RBs and solid #3 RBs. By August he may even be drafted behind Thomas Jones who was a 7th round pick in April.

While it’s not surprising that Parker’s value decreased with the addition of a new rookie in the backfield, it is surprising that Mendenhall is only being drafted in the late 8th round:

If he is really going to damage Parker’s value enough to make him drop 3 rounds, I think Mendenhall should be valued higher. My guess is that Parker and Mendenhall will end up with similar stats at the end of the year (maybe 900 yds and 7 TDs each). I’d prefer to get that production from my 8th round pick rather than my 5th.

Mendenhall looks like an absolute steal right now.

I received my copy of Pro Football Prospectus 2008 this week, and I’m excited.  I’ve read it for the past three years and it’s packed with lots of great analysis.  Being a numbers guy, this book hits the sweet spot for me.

If you’re not familiar with it, half the book is analysis and projections for NFL teams, and then the other half is projections for individual players.  They also compile projected fantasy points for each player and rank them by VBD at the end of the book.

The player projections are good because in general they are modest for almost everyone.  It helps me keep a level head when I’m really positive about a player and might draft him too early.  Their trends usually show players that have great years regress to the mean the next.

One player that they project to do well is Aaron Rodgers (if he gets a chance to play that is).  However,  I still remember a few years ago when they projected Kevin Jones and Julius Jones to be #1 and #2 in rushing yards.   Whoops!  I’ll let that one slide even though I took Kevin Jones in most of my leagues that year because of their advice.

Despite the occasional bad projection, it’s still a good book for fantasy football fans and especially those who like to analyze statistics.  I’ll try to write more about the book once I’ve finished it.  At over 500 pages, I know there’s plenty of material to cover.

When I’m drafting, there’s typically three things that I want to know about a player:

1. What were his previous stats?
2. What’s happening with him lately?
3. Can I draft him in a later round?

Typically I go to these sources to answer those questions:

1. Pro-Football-Reference
2. Football Guys News Blog
3. Fantasy Football Calculator ADP (yes, shameless plug, but it’s true)

Whether it’s a slow email draft or a live draft, I want to get the information as fast as possible.  Since I use Firefox, I wanted a way to put the first two sites as custom search engines in the Firefox toolbar.

After some searching, I found the Add to Search Bar add-on.   It’s really easy to use, and here is how I used it to add PFR and FBG to my search toolbar:

1. Install the add-on
2. Go to Pro-football-reference.com
3. Right click on the search bar at the top right
4. Select “Add to Search Bar”

Then edit the name or just hit enter and you should see PFR in the search box!  Go ahead and search for a player and you’re taken directly to their career stats page.

Then you can go to Football Guys News and do the same.  My search bar now looks like this:

Obviously, if you have other sites you prefer to use this will work for any of them that have search boxes.  I’m not associated with PFR or FBG at all.  Just sharing a tip that I’ve found useful.

For Internet Explorer users, this link should help you do the same thing: http://www.microsoft.com/windows/ie/searchguide/en-en/default.mspx.  It only works for IE7 though; IE6 doesn’t have a search bar.  I don’t use IE7 so I haven’t tried it myself.

Give it a try!  I think you’ll find it easier to look up player information during those precious few moments during a draft.

The average draft position data for 8, 10, and 12 team leagues has been updated. With this update, Marshawn Lynch moves past Reggie Wayne and Peyton Manning.

Here’s Lynch’s draft position since April:

The first black dot is his traffic accident, and the second one is when he pleaded guilty to “failure to exercise due care toward a pedestrian.”

He dropped about 3 or 4 draft spots while his future was uncertain. Now that he’s gotten just a $100 fine, he’s back up to the beginning of the second round.

Hi! I’m starting this blog to post updates about the site and to write about other fantasy football related thoughts that I have.

First, I’d like to say thank you to everyone who has participated in the mock drafts. It really is the community that makes the drafts useful and fun. I’ve been in a lot of great discussions on fantasy football in the draft rooms.

I started this site three years ago because I wanted a better live mock draft program. I am incredibly pleased that so many people have found the mock drafts as useful as I have.

This year is also the debut of the Lineup Calculator. I’ll have more posts about that later.

If you have questions or thoughts about the site, leave a comment below or send me an email at FFCalc@gmail.com.