ADP Update: Parker Falls, Mendenhall Undervalued
Kevin Day, July 18th, 2008Willie Parker’s ADP is dropping like a rock.
The latest update of the ADP data shows that Willie Parker’s average draft position is dangerously close to the 5th round (4.09) for 10-team leagues. Before the NFL draft he was being taken in the mid-second round:
Parker is now firmly in the range of poor #2 RBs and solid #3 RBs. By August he may even be drafted behind Thomas Jones who was a 7th round pick in April.
While it’s not surprising that Parker’s value decreased with the addition of a new rookie in the backfield, it is surprising that Mendenhall is only being drafted in the late 8th round:
If he is really going to damage Parker’s value enough to make him drop 3 rounds, I think Mendenhall should be valued higher. My guess is that Parker and Mendenhall will end up with similar stats at the end of the year (maybe 900 yds and 7 TDs each). I’d prefer to get that production from my 8th round pick rather than my 5th.
Mendenhall looks like an absolute steal right now.
Filed as ADP
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I think your projections are optimistic for Mendenhall. A 50/50 split in the backfield for a rookie? The steelers had 9 rushing touchdowns last season (that number is likely to improve but not by that much. Pittsburgh’s coaches are using the TE’s as goal line weapons.
Mendenhall is likely to fill in to Najeh’s Davenport’s role. So the stats would be similiar (say 600 yards 5 touchdowns). Mwelde Moore may even take 1-2 td’s. Mendenhall is a mid-priced handcuff.
Parker may be the best pick (of his round). Certainly between Jones, Turner, and McFadden he’s more proven track record (his fantasy worth). He’s likely to beat the other 3 backs in yardage and should have similiar TD totals.
Ben Gibberd on July 19th, 2008 at 10:36 am