Here’s a look at some key stats from week 3:

Earnest Graham stopped by the Bears

Earnest Graham had averaged 8.3 yards per carry through week 2. Against the Bears, however, he got shut down and averaged a measly 1.3 ypc. He would have done even worse had they not gone into overtime because he had only eight yards on 10 carries through four quarters.

Although Chicago successfully stopped the run, they did leave the door open for Griese to throw for 403 yards and maneuver a win. That may signal to future opponents that they have to respect the Tampa Bay passing game and leave some holes open for Graham.

Unexpected quarterback standouts

Would you have guessed that the top four quarterbacks of week 3 (through Sunday) ranked by QB rating would be:

1. J.T. O’Sullivan (123.3)
2. Matt Ryan (120.6)
3. Chad Pennington (113.8)
4. Jason Campbell (112.2)

[Edit: Philip Rivers had a 130.0 rating against the Jets on Monday night]

Also throw in Ronnie Brown’s perfect 158.3 QB rating against the Patriots, which tops the list of surprising performances this week.

The worst quarterbacking of the week was done by Derek Anderson who put up a 22.9 QB rating. That wasn’t the kind of game he needed to keep Brady Quinn on the bench.

Philly D holds strong

Despite facing Steven Jackson, Marion Barber, and Willie Parker this year, Philadelphia’s rushing defense is the best in the league and has allowed only 45 rushing yards per game and just one rushing TD.

The Eagles face off against the Bears in week 4, and it looks like they will give Matt Forte a tough time. No running back has more than 63 yards against them.

How bad is Detroit?

There are now public calls by the Lions’ Vice Chairman for Matt Millen to leave. Is it really that bad though?

Let’s see… their rushing defense is last in the league allowing 207 yards per game.

Their passing defense is only the 23rd worst in the league, but every quarterback they’ve faced so far is in their first year as a starter (Ryan, Rodgers, O’Sullivan).

The offense has struggled equally with the 4th-worst rushing attack in the league. Also, Kitna leads the league in interceptions (5) and has been sacked the second most in the league (12).

The Lions have a bye this week, but the Bears will be eagerly waiting for them in week 5.

Most fantasy leagues are among friends and done either entirely for fun or for a small cash prize.

On the other side of the spectrum are the big tournaments like the WCOFF and FFOC.

This year I’m competing in the million-dollar Fantasy Football Open Championship. Now, I’m probably premature in writing an article about how to win a league like this (because I haven’t), but I’ve found that I’ve had to approach this league differently than normal leagues.

I am doing well so far and I’m 4-0 in the preliminary 10-team league. Each week is a head-to-head matchup, and then if your total points are in the top half of the league that week you get another win.

Here are five tips that I plan to follow this season in the FFOC:

1. Draft well

The draft is important in every league, but it’s especially important in the FFOC because there is no trading allowed during the season. Since there’s no trading, it’s important to draft well at every position.

Just drafting the best player available won’t necessarily work. You really need depth all around. My depth is best at quarterback (Brees, Roethlisberger, Rodgers) and running back (Westbrook, Graham, Forte, Brown).

2. Identify key weeks

Sometimes the league specifies a unique ranking system that could affect how you play the game. In the FFOC, the overall winner is determined by the total score of this equation:

(Average of weeks 1 through 9) + (Average of weeks 10 through 15) + (Week 16)

With this weighting system, games during weeks 10 to 15 are valued 50% more than those in weeks 1 to 9, while week 16 is valued nine times more than a game in weeks 1 to 9. Also, week 10 is the league championship game that determines who goes on to the national tournament.

Whichever tournament you’re in, you need to target players with good matchups in key scoring weeks and avoid players with byes on those weeks. My only problem is Earnest Graham’s bye in week 10, but Forte should fill in nicely.

3. Start players with upside

Looking at the overall standings, the top teams have started all the right studs in both weeks so far. When deciding between two similar players, pick the one that seems more likely to hit it big. For instance, start Chris Johnson over Thomas Jones even though Jones might be the safer pick.

When you’re playing against thousands of other teams, you’re not going to get to the top by playing it safe. Winning a big tournament is going to take a bit of luck anyways, so it makes sense to take some calculated risks.

4. Be diligent with free agents

You can’t let any worthwhile free agent slip away. When you’re playing for a million dollars, it’s worth the time to stay up-to-date on every transaction going on in the NFL.

5. Spend wisely

Although it’s important to watch for valuable free agents, don’t spend frivolously. The last couple years have featured breakout players late in the season. If there’s a cap to free agent spending like there is in FFOC, don’t spend all your cash too soon. Just because a player has a great week 1 game doesn’t mean they can produce all year long.

Conclusion

Again, these are just a few ways that I’ll be approaching my major tournament differently than my other leagues. I haven’t won any tournaments yet, but I hope that following these tips will change that.

If you’re not in a big tournament this year, I highly encourage joinging one next year. It’s a lot of fun playing with so much on the line.

It can be addictive to track live game stats on a Sunday during football season. When you’re in multiple leagues, nearly every play counts for or against you.

While most league hosting websites offer free live stats, Yahoo still charges for them with their StatTracker product.

Fortunately, if you don’t feel like paying for live stats, there is an alternative. It is a Greasemonkey script for Firefox called Yahoo Fantasy Football Free Stats. This is part of a screen shot from my team yesterday using the Free Stats program:

The upside is that it’s free. The downside is that it doesn’t calculate fantasy points. It just displays raw stats. That’s one big advantage StatTracker has. Still, it’s better than clicking on every game score within your team list and searching for their stats.

To use this program, you need Firefox with the Greasemonkey add-on installed. This program is not supported by Yahoo (or Fantasy Football Calculator).

If you’re a Firefox user who has decided not to buy StatTracker, give this program a try. It’s guaranteed to save you time every Sunday.

Tom Brady’s injury is devastating to the teams that drafted him. The effect is a net loss of 14 to 20 fantasy points per week.

That number was calculated by looking at the predicted fantasy points per game for quarterbacks before the Brady injury:

Tom Brady was expected to produce about 26 fantasy points per game; a lot more than any other quarterback.

Decent Backup

The effect of his injury depends on who you have to replace him. If you have a decent replacement or were able to pick up Matt Cassel, then your new QB will probably average 12 fantasy points per game. It’s still early to tell what Cassel will do, but with a great team surrounding him he’ll still be a solid replacement.

In this scenario with a decent backup, the net loss is 14 points per game due to Tom Brady’s injury. That’s a lot.

Waiver Wire

Unfortunately, that’s the best-case scenario for most fantasy owners. If you weren’t fast enough to grab Cassel and you didn’t draft a good backup then you’re looking at pulling someone from the free agent pool.

In general, there will be better players on the waiver wire in smaller leagues than in larger ones. Assuming there were two QBs drafted per team, a 10-team league will have the 20th-best QB available, such as Jon Kitna.

If you can grab the 20th-best QB, then your net loss from Brady’s injury is 17 points per week.

For a 12-team league the 24th-best QB, Matt Ryan, should be available and the net loss is 19 points per week.

For a 14-team league the 28th-best QB, Jamarcus Russell, should be available and the net loss is 20 points per week.

Ouch.

Trade! Trade! Trade!

If you think you can spot every team in your league 14 to 20 points per week and still make the playoffs, you’re dreaming.

To have any shot at winning, you need to get more points per game into your starting lineup. That means taking a risk and sacrificing depth at other positions. Package up your backup running backs and wide receivers to upgrade at quarterback.

The only exception is if you got lucky and had an amazing draft and the rest of your team can make up for the loss at quarterback. If you drafted Michael Turner and Willie Parker, who are both outperforming their ADP, then you can probably limp along with a scrub at QB.

All the other unlucky Brady owners, however, need to start looking for teams to trade with. It’s going to take a lot of work to get back into playoff contention.

Drafts are done and the season is now underway.

Good luck in your leagues this year. Hopefully you dominated your drafts and are on your way towards a league championship or two.

Remember to check back to the site often.  Even though the mock draft season is over, there is still a lot to come.

The projections for the Lineup Calculator will be updated throughout the season, and even more additions are planned.  Also, here on the blog I will dig into the fantasy predictions every week.