Drew Brees will break Dan Marino’s record

Kevin Day, October 16th, 2008

(Follow-up 12/19: Drew Brees is still close to Marino’s record.)

In my last post, I outlined four players on track to break records this year.  In just two short weeks, however, that list was cut down to one:

Drew Brees

Brees is holding steady at 332 yards per game, which will give him 5,315 for the season if he can continue that pace.  But can he?

The Saints have had an easy schedule so far.  He’s already lit-up the league-worst Broncos for 421 yards, and  the toughest pass defense he’s seen so far was Washington, the 13th best in the league.

Adjusting for Strength of Schedule

The graph below shows Brees’ passing yards versus his opponent’s defensive passing rank.  The blue dots show his actual performance in the past six games and the red dots show his predicted performance for the next 10 games.

Drew Brees Passing Yards

As you can see, not only has he faced a lot of bad defenses, he’s scheduled to play even more bad defenses including San Diego (31), Detroit (30), and Atlanta twice (24).  He only has three games against above average defenses: Carolina twice (2) and Green Bay (7).

Adjusting his average yards per game for opponent difficulty, he is projected to finish the year with 5,111 yards.  That’s a hair more than Marino’s 5,084 yards in 1984.

Conclusion

Drew Brees has played a cream-puff schedule so far and has a cream-puff schedule ahead of him.

After adjusting for strength of schedule, he is on pace to break Dan Marino’s single-season passing record, but just barely.

Don’t expect a big game from him this week against Carolina, but he will stay within reach of Marino’s record down the stretch.

12 Comments

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12 Responses to “Drew Brees will break Dan Marino’s record”


[...] Drew Brees is taking aim at Dan Marino’s passing yardage record. [Fantasy Football Calculator] [...]

Daily Haze: Live chat later today | The Hazean on

this is total bull
yes hes faced a lot of bad defenses but wait a second so did marino
plus dnt talk about statistics the nfl is not about statistics its nit baseball u have people who want to win and it doesnt matter what they did before the game its what they do in the game so dont make the nfl about statistics because it football not golf.
so yea let drew play football.

spencer parker on

ok yea im bak
you never dogged on peyton manning when he beat marino for touchdowns and peyton had extremely easy teams so forget statistics they leave it on the field just watch the falcons game

spencer parker on

Hey Spencer,

I might not have come across the right way, but I’m not putting down Drew Brees’ achievements. He’s been playing amazing football. However, he has also had an easy schedule. It’s the combination of an easy schedule plus great performance that puts him so close to breaking Marino’s record. Brady had an easy schedule last year as well, and that did help him a lot when he broke the TD record.

Kevin Day on

Yes Drew will break Dan’s record and he hasn’t had an easy schedule but he has proved that he is a great quaretrback and has kept New Orleans in the mix for the playoffs all season. If you put an outstanding defense in New Orleans and keep Drew healthy then the Saints will be a team to go far in the playoffs and win a couple of Superbowls. And for the critics who dnt think its possible for the Saints to make the playoffs at 7-6 it is very possible, because if Carolina lose to Tampa Monday they drop to 9-4 and with having Dnver, NYG, and The Saints to play at the superdome they could possibly end the season 10-6 an dif the Falcons loose to Tampa Sunday, and win there last two then they go 10-6 and with Dallas at 8-5 if they loose to the Giants Sunday then its possible that they loose their wildcard spot and if Was looses to the Ravens then they fall to 7-6 and the playoff picture gets very insteresting

Trey on

The bigger story is the effect of playing indoors or in warm weather most games in the NFC south, and also the illegal contact rule, which completely kills coverages.

Watch him struggle in CHicago’s cold, again. Change the illegal contact rule, and shave off 500-1000 yards.

Marino’s games were longer though due to out of bounds rules.

matt on

Actually Drew Brees won’t break Marino’s single season passing record.. Brees would have to throw for more than 375 yards a game to break it.. and with the Saints now eliminated from playoff contention there really is no need to push it.. also in recent weeks a man by the name of Pierre Thomas has been the Saints main offensive weapon.. by a stroke of luck and the hand of god only will Brees break the record.. but with that said your prediction fell short.. sorry but better luck next time..

Anthony on

[...] Drew Brees will break Dan Marino’s record Categories [...]

Drew Brees On Pace to Pass Marino - Fantasy Football Calculator Blog on

Anthony,

You’re right that he’ll have to put up big numbers, but he does have the Lions this week. That should give him a boost. I don’t think we can rule it out just yet.

Kevin Day on

the season ended already. he did not break dan marinos record. sorry to break it to you guys but you should really go consult your local calendar or something

weiners weiners on

For all of those who said he wouldn’t, all of you are wrong cause he will break it next season so shut up. He hasn’t had an easy schedule, all of those teams have a good defense and why don’t you go and try to play in the NFL and see haow hard it is.

bla bla bla on

[...] in the NFL season, I thought that Drew Brees would break Dan Marino’s record, which obviously didn’t happen.  He [...]

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