The #1 running back in fantasy football last year has had an up-and-down off-season, at least as far as his fantasy value is concerned.

The combination of his strong pre-season performance and Jonathan Stewart’s injury status has resulted in a slow dip and sharp rise in Williams’ ADP.  In 12-team leagues, he is being drafted at 1.07, right behind Larry Fitzgerald.

There are a lot of questions about whether or not he can repeat his league-leading 18 touchdowns last year.  His great year-end stats hide the fact that he only had 2 TDs in the first 7 games. Is he for real, or did he just take advantage of a few bad defenses at the end of the year?

Fun Trivia

One other thing going for DeAngelo Williams is the fact that since 2000, a stud running back has been the #1 fantasy running back two years in a row.

This article from Fantasy Football Cafe shows that it was Marshall Faulk in 00/01, Priest Holmes in 02/03, Shaun Alexander in 04/05, and LT in 06/07.

Since D-Will was #1 in 2008, does that make him a lock as #1 in 2009?

Not only is Randy Moss snagging touchdowns in preseason, but he also just caught Andre Johnson in the ADP rankings.

Below is a graph of his ADP in 12-team leagues.  He’s slowly but surely been catching up to the Houston star since April.

Although Brady had a small injury scare, his shoulder looks to be okay.  Matt Schaub may be more of an injury risk than Brady at this point, and that could be keeping A.J.’s value from going higher than it is now.

The single-season TD reception holder may still be a steal as the #2 WR off the board.  He’s unlikely to reach 22 touchdowns, but it’s exciting to know that his ceiling is so high.

If so, your dreams may have been smashed.  The talented and promising running back that many thought would carry the load for the Bucs this year may now be part of a complicated platoon that includes Cadillac Williams.

That Rotoworld article has a good breakdown of what could be one of the more important fantasy football-related moves this week.  With a new trend of players taking one or even two wide receivers at the start of their fantasy football draft, Ward has frequently been though of as a solid RB3, and even an RB2 for those more desperate.

Ward’s average draft position has not been steady as drafters have tried to pin down his role this year.  It’s alternated between the late fourth round and the mid-fifth round for 12-team leagues.

Currently at an ADP of 4.11, expect that graph to dip back down again, perhaps as low as the 6th or 7th round.  When you hear the coach describe the running back carries distributed in a 2-2-1 ratio…

“..the starter will get two series, followed by another back playing the next two series and a third getting a single series.”

it’s time to run the other direction. Guys like McFadden and Larry Johnson have their own question marks, but they should at least get the playing time they need to play a valuable role on your roster.

This week created a lot of churn in the quarterback rankings. In order to get a grip on all of it for your draft, make sure to review the latest ADP for quarterbacks.

For convenience, here it is below.  This includes data from 12-team drafts on only Thursday, August 20th. Keep in mind that these rankings could change quickly though depending on how the preseason plays out.

New King

By the slimmest of margins, Tom Brady is neck-and-neck with Drew Brees, and possibly slightly ahead. Not much of a surprise given Brady’s solid game that has eased fears of his knee injury lingering.

Sick of Favre Yet?

Well, there are enough drafters who aren’t sick of him.  Brett Favre is going as the #14 quarterback right now, right after Roethlisberger and before Hasselbeck.  For 12-team leagues, he’s beeing treated as a high-end QB#2.

The good news is that if you had been targeting Hasselbeck as a sleeper backup quarterback, your chances of drafting him have increased a bit.  The bad news is that if you drafted Sage Rosenfels while Favre was “retired,” you’re probably a little ticked off right now.

Hope for Vick?

Vick is getting some attention, and as the 22nd QB off the board, some people are taking a chance on him as a backup.

Poor Bulger

With the news of Marc Bulger injuring his finger, he has dropped from the 24th QB to the 29th.  He is currently targeted to be back by the regular season opener, but this injury puts a dent in his and the rest of the Rams’ fantasy value. He isn’t an amazing quarterback, but he is a league above his replacement, Kyle Boller.

More Changes to Come…

The only constant in the NFL is that nothing is constant.  Between injuries, comebacks, and competition, the quarterback you are excited about drafting today may be yesterday’s news tomorrow. A mock draft or two is a great way to stay on top of the trends and ahead of your competition.

Tom Brady had a strong first outing against the Eagles, and it may have earned him the top spot among fantasy quarterbacks.

In 10-team ADP, Brady just beat out Drew Brees using data from drafts on August 19th.

That last column is their overall draft position.  Brady is going at 15.0 on average and Brees at 15.2.  A virtual tie. In 12-team leagues it’s the exact opposite with Brees a hair ahead of Brady.

Dead Heat

It’s a close race between the two right now, but another strong preseason game from Brady may solidify his top spot.

On Draft Day Eve, visions of 50 TDs are floating in fantasy players’ heads…

The Philadelphia Eagles took a chance on Michael Vick. Will you?

From the Eagles

Andy Reid had said that Vick will contribute this year.  He said that both McNabb and Kolb’s jobs are not in jeopardy, and that with Vick’s talent with running and throwing, he’ll find some way to get him on the field.

Vick’s ADP

Right now, Vick is being drafted in the 13th round of 12-team mock drafts.  This data includes some drafts that occurred before the signing was announced, so this position may change within the next few days.  He’s going between Joe Flacco and Brady Quinn right now.

Worth a flier?

It’s hard to say if his value will go up or down the news.  It sounds like the Eagles are looking forward to getting him on the field, but he’s definitely not going to be a starting QB this year.  He may end up as more of a tight end or be active in Wildcat-type plays.

He is still likely to be suspended from games for the first 5 weeks of the season, so his value has a ceiling.  Vick may have a greater fantasy value to you by distracting people in your draft who haven’t paid much attention in the past couple of years.  Cross your fingers that one of your friends grabs him in the 5th round.

What goes through your head when you draft your WR3?  Are you safely filling a roster spot or plotting to find a diamond in the rough?

A lively discussion at Fantasy Football Cafe asked this exact question.  It started out by getting feedback on late round WRs and by page 3 evolved into a philosophical debate. The thread did such a great job covering each side that it’s worth quoting parts here:

Risk and Reward Strategy

In favor of a bold strategy was Kensat30, a longtime member of the Cafe:

“Derrick Mason and Donald Driver are the model of consistency. Do I want them as my WR3? Hell no.
…Devin Hester and Ted Ginn aren’t bye week players, those guys are potentially the next Javon Walker or Steve Smith.”

This strategy views every pick as an opportunity to draft an amazing, championship-winning player.  Taking a player with a low ceiling means missing a chance at a big winner.  In shallow leagues, waiver wire players can often fill in respectably if a risky player totally bombs.

Steady Freddy Strategy

In rebuttal, mattUTD20 replied:

“I think it is pretty foolish just to write off the older guys who have been around the block a few times because of whatever misconception you have of them. Too many people spend too much of their time looking for that pipe dream WR1 in the 10th round.”

The cold-hard facts show that it’s unlikely that a given player in the 10th round will turn into a star. That’s why they’re in the 10th round to begin with.  If you draft your WR3 trying to get a WR1, you may end up with a zero instead.

ADP Comparision

Here is a comparison of the ADP trends of some old guys (Mason and Driver) versus some young guys (Harvin and Ginn) that can all be had in the 8th/9th round of 12-team drafts:

Harvin is the only player moving, but he’ll likely stop in the 8th round for now.  If he makes some big flashy plays this preseason, his value could climb even more.

It is a little odd to see players on such opposite ends of the risk spectrum so close together in ADP.  There is definitely more upside to the younger players, but it requires skill and luck to actually land a great wide receiver who pans out.

To Each His Own

Risk is a big factor in fantasy football, and it should be managed with care.  It’s important to think about which strategy you think will work best for you, because drafts can be won and lost by late round picks.

There is a minor buzz around Eddie Royal these days.  Partly because he’s been playing well, and partly because of doubts surrounding Brandon Marshall.  Marshall wasn’t even listed as one of the top 3 receivers on Denver’s most recent depth chart.  His leg injury and the recent talk that Eddie Royal will be taking a bigger role in the offense have kept him from participating fully at practice.

Looking at the average draft position for both receivers, it appears that Royal is creeping up a bit.  For 12-team drafts, Marshall is going at 4.02 while Royal is being drafted at 5.10.

Ever since Marshall’s blog post vaguely declaring that it is “time for a change”, the trade rumors have been holding back his value relative to his actual talent.  Throw in an injury that has sidelined him since August 2, and it is only a matter of time before his value starts to drop.  Fantasy owners are going to want to see some progress both with his leg and with getting along with his team (whichever one he ends up with).

It’s likely that Royal will continue to climb in the rankings.  He showed a lot of promise last year going for 980 yards and 5 TDs.  Even though Orton is less talented than Cutler, the porous Denver defense will likely keep the offense in a lot of passing situations.

Wide receivers are already hard to predict.  Throw in huge lineup changes to the team and you make it even more difficult to guess how a player might perform this year.

Two such players with huge question marks by their names this year are Roy Williams and Chad Ocho Cinco.  They both happen to be going in the mid-fourth round for 12-team drafts at 4.03 and 4.05 respectively.  Below are their ADP trends since the NFL draft this year.

With T.O. leaving a huge hole to fill in Dallas, Roy Williams has all the opportunities in the world to step up.  Things seemed to be shaky at first, but there are reports that Romo and Williams are starting to click.

Chad Ocho Cinco is, well, just being Chad.  Although he’s entertaining and active online, there are concerns about his effort level, Carson Palmer’s health, and the absence of T.J. Houshmandzadeh.  Coles should do well to take some heat off of Chad, but he’s anything but a sure thing this year.

You can now see ADP data from 2008 and 2007 on the Average Draft Position page.  Browsing through it really brings back memories.

Remember when Shaun Alexander was a top 6 pick?  How about taking Travis Henry at the end of the 1st round?  Anyone feel like making either of those picks this year?

Top 20 Running Backs From 2007:

You can use the filters on the ADP page to view by year.  For the impatient, here is the 2008 ADP and the 2007 ADP.

The graphs still show just 2009 data.  The archived data is only a snapshot of the last ADP before the season started, and is only available for 12-team leagues now.

Trend Spotting

The most noticeable trend over the years has been a rush of non-RBs into the first round.  In 2007, 11 out of 12 first-round picks were RBs.  In 2008 that dropped to 9 out of 12, and in 2009 it’s holding at 9 out of 12 also.

Go nuts!  See what trends or interesting facts you can find by digging through the ADP data.