Wide receivers are already hard to predict.  Throw in huge lineup changes to the team and you make it even more difficult to guess how a player might perform this year.

Two such players with huge question marks by their names this year are Roy Williams and Chad Ocho Cinco.  They both happen to be going in the mid-fourth round for 12-team drafts at 4.03 and 4.05 respectively.  Below are their ADP trends since the NFL draft this year.

With T.O. leaving a huge hole to fill in Dallas, Roy Williams has all the opportunities in the world to step up.  Things seemed to be shaky at first, but there are reports that Romo and Williams are starting to click.

Chad Ocho Cinco is, well, just being Chad.  Although he’s entertaining and active online, there are concerns about his effort level, Carson Palmer’s health, and the absence of T.J. Houshmandzadeh.  Coles should do well to take some heat off of Chad, but he’s anything but a sure thing this year.

You can now see ADP data from 2008 and 2007 on the Average Draft Position page.  Browsing through it really brings back memories.

Remember when Shaun Alexander was a top 6 pick?  How about taking Travis Henry at the end of the 1st round?  Anyone feel like making either of those picks this year?

Top 20 Running Backs From 2007:

You can use the filters on the ADP page to view by year.  For the impatient, here is the 2008 ADP and the 2007 ADP.

The graphs still show just 2009 data.  The archived data is only a snapshot of the last ADP before the season started, and is only available for 12-team leagues now.

Trend Spotting

The most noticeable trend over the years has been a rush of non-RBs into the first round.  In 2007, 11 out of 12 first-round picks were RBs.  In 2008 that dropped to 9 out of 12, and in 2009 it’s holding at 9 out of 12 also.

Go nuts!  See what trends or interesting facts you can find by digging through the ADP data.

The Hazean recently wrote about 5 rookies ready to start, which lists the players most likely to be starters at Week 1 this year.  The next question is, when exactly do you take them in your draft?

Looking at the 12-team average draft position rankings of some promising rookies, it looks like they haven’t moved much since the dust settled after the NFL draft in April.

Running Backs

Knowshon Moreno is leading all rookies this year.  Right now he’s the leading candidate to win the starting job in Denver.  As a late fourth-round pick, he could be a steal if he lives up to his potential.

Chris Wells is a slightly bigger risk with Hightower poaching TDs, but he’s a solid RB3 that you can snag in the early 6th round.

Wide Receivers

Michael Crabtree and Percy Harvin each have question marks by their names.  With injuries and unknown quarterbacks throwing to them, there are a lot of risks here.  Throw in the usual uncertainty involved with rookie wide receivers, and it’s no wonder they’re being drafted in rounds 7 and 9, respectively.

Rookies in 2009?

Last year saw an explosion of rookies with fantasy relevance.  Was that a fluke or a new trend?  If you’re feeling lucky, you might be able to snag one that carries you to a championship.

Here’s a summary of some recent blog posts here on the Fantasy Football Calculator Blog, just in case you missed some.

Things will move fast once training camp starts later this week.  Stay on the ball by refreshing yourself with these articles:

ADP Updates and Player Analysis:

QB Showdown: Rivers or Warner?

Which Packer Do You Want?

Westbrook Drops, But Not Far

Wide Receivers Still Workhorses of the NFL

Pierre Thomas beats Reggie Bush

Romo’s Value Still Declining

Fitzgerald Leads Elite WRs

Site Updates and Other Cool Stuff:

Draft Sound Alerts and Improved Dashboard

5 Ways to use Twitter for Fantasy Football

Fantasy Football Headlines On iGoogle

New Site: Fantasy Football Chatter

Ready, Go!

There, now you’re up to speed and ready to draft smart this year.

Two very different players.

Two wildly different paths to success.

And they have the same average draft position.

Philip Rivers vs. Kurt Warner

What goes through your head when you debate whether to draft Philip Rivers or Kurt Warner?  Although Warner used to be ahead of Rivers, they are now both going at the end of the fourth round in 12 team mock drafts at 4.11.  Below are their ADP trends.

Philip Rivers

Last year, Rivers took a huge step forward.  He threw for 4009/39/11 as compared to his 3152/21/15 in 2007.  As an early 1st round pick in 2005, the expectations have always been high for Rivers.  He is also reliable, starting in all 16 games for each of the past three years.

Kurt Warner

Warner had a comeback season last year, throwing for 4583/30/14.  It was also the first time he started 16 games in a season since 2001 with the Rams.  He’s a scrappy player who fought his way into the league and back into a starting role with the Cardinals.  Even though he gets to throw to the most dangerous receiver in the NFL, his durability is a major concern to fantasy owners.

Conclusion

Both have upside, but only Philip Rivers has consistency on his side.  Neither player is a bad pick for late in the fourth round though.  Your tolerance for risk may be the biggest factor in who you decide for your team.

Although the Green Bay Packers lost their star Brett Favre last year, not much changed in the Green Bay offense.  Compare the stats of Aaron Rodgers 2008 to Favre 2007:

Rodgers (2008): 4038 yds, 28 TDs, 13 INTs

Favre (2007): 4155 yds, 28 TDs, 15 INTs

Rodgers’ success was a surprise to many, but he’s clearly not surprising anyone this year.  He and the other stars of the Packer offense are all being drafted between the 2nd and 4th rounds this year, as their ADP graph shows.

There has been some fluctuation in their values with with Greg Jennings and Aaron Rodgers rising slightly.

Overall it looks like most drafters are anticipating repeat seasons from these three cheese heads.  Might some of them be overvalued or undervalued though?

Ryan Grant reached 1203 yards on 312 carries last year, but had a disappointing 4 touchdowns.  Jennings was hot at the start last year, but cooled off at the end.  Rodgers needs to prove that his one year with Favre-like stats wasn’t a fluke.

These three players are going to be key to many fantasy teams this year, and each has a lot of upside.  If they can be a little more consistent then they could become a fantasy powerhouse.  They sure have the talent for it.

It’s been a couple weeks since Brian Westbrook’s ankle surgery was announced, and fantasy footballers everywhere reacted immediately.

After his value dropped almost one full round, it has held steady since then.  Here is his average draft position for 12-team leagues:

As you can see, a consensus on Brian Westbrook was arrived at quickly.  He is now sandwiched between Frank Gore and Brandon Jacobs.

Even though he’s already a known injury risk, there are plenty of people willing to snag Westbrook in the early 2nd round.  If he heals quickly and remains healthy, he could end up a steal for those who take the risk.

In 2007, wide receivers with 90+ receptions outnumbered running backs with 300+ carries.  That was the first time it happened since 2002.

At the time, it wasn’t clear if it was a fluke or a new trend in how NFL offenses operate.  To follow up the original article with data from 2008, it looks like it probably is a trend.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, there were 6 wide receivers with 90 or more receptions while only 5 running backs received 300 or more carries.

Both high-use wide receivers and running backs dipped last year, with running back studs dropping to a low not previously seen this century.

Based on the previous trend in this graph, these two graphs don’t intersect much.  There was a running back bubble period where up to a thirteen running backs received 300 carries or more.  However, no one is expecting that to happen this year.

Just like the stock market has bull and bear cycles, the NFL appears to have passing and rushing cycles.  Since the next couple of years look to be pass-heavy, it’s easy to imagine Jim Cramer screaming “BUY BUY BUY!” on wide receivers.

The typical mantra that running backs are the corner stone of a fantasy football team is slowly fading away.  Even now, with minimal action happening in the NFL, wide receivers are creeping up further in ADP rankings at the expense of running backs.

Here you can see Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson passing Clinton Portis and Marion Barber in 12-team drafts over the past two months.

The driving force for this shift seems to be a perceived lack of quality WRs.  In years past, it wouldn’t be uncommon to see running backs taken in 11 out of 12, or even 12 out of 12 picks in the first round.  This year, there are already 3 wide receivers in the top 12 in ADP (Fitz, Johnson, Moss), and Calvin Johnson is knocking at the door.

The combination of increased passing in the NFL along with more running back committees is making the reliable wide receivers pretty valuable. If you’re used to stocking up on running backs, this might be a good time to evaluate how you’ll structure your team this year.

The flash-and-dash Reggie Bush has just dropped below Pierre Thomas in fantasy football average draft rankings. The graph below shows their ADP trends in 10-team mock drafts.

You can now draft either one in the mid 4th round.  What’s surprising is that Reggie’s value has not decreased much.  The switch has mostly been due to an increase in Pierre Thomas‘ value.

Just yesterday, fantasy writer Tom Kessenich said on Twitter that Thomas could be a monster this year.  Good timing on his part.  Looks like he’s on to something.

The cat is out of the bag now though.  For non-PPR leagues, there is a difficult choice to make between the two Saints running backs.

It will be interesting to see how each of their draft rankings change this summer.  Bush is coming off of knee surgery, and Thomas bruised his left wrist this past Saturday.  With these injuries, this battle may be decided in the trainer’s room.