Two very different players.

Two wildly different paths to success.

And they have the same average draft position.

Philip Rivers vs. Kurt Warner

What goes through your head when you debate whether to draft Philip Rivers or Kurt Warner?  Although Warner used to be ahead of Rivers, they are now both going at the end of the fourth round in 12 team mock drafts at 4.11.  Below are their ADP trends.

Philip Rivers

Last year, Rivers took a huge step forward.  He threw for 4009/39/11 as compared to his 3152/21/15 in 2007.  As an early 1st round pick in 2005, the expectations have always been high for Rivers.  He is also reliable, starting in all 16 games for each of the past three years.

Kurt Warner

Warner had a comeback season last year, throwing for 4583/30/14.  It was also the first time he started 16 games in a season since 2001 with the Rams.  He’s a scrappy player who fought his way into the league and back into a starting role with the Cardinals.  Even though he gets to throw to the most dangerous receiver in the NFL, his durability is a major concern to fantasy owners.

Conclusion

Both have upside, but only Philip Rivers has consistency on his side.  Neither player is a bad pick for late in the fourth round though.  Your tolerance for risk may be the biggest factor in who you decide for your team.

Although the Green Bay Packers lost their star Brett Favre last year, not much changed in the Green Bay offense.  Compare the stats of Aaron Rodgers 2008 to Favre 2007:

Rodgers (2008): 4038 yds, 28 TDs, 13 INTs

Favre (2007): 4155 yds, 28 TDs, 15 INTs

Rodgers’ success was a surprise to many, but he’s clearly not surprising anyone this year.  He and the other stars of the Packer offense are all being drafted between the 2nd and 4th rounds this year, as their ADP graph shows.

There has been some fluctuation in their values with with Greg Jennings and Aaron Rodgers rising slightly.

Overall it looks like most drafters are anticipating repeat seasons from these three cheese heads.  Might some of them be overvalued or undervalued though?

Ryan Grant reached 1203 yards on 312 carries last year, but had a disappointing 4 touchdowns.  Jennings was hot at the start last year, but cooled off at the end.  Rodgers needs to prove that his one year with Favre-like stats wasn’t a fluke.

These three players are going to be key to many fantasy teams this year, and each has a lot of upside.  If they can be a little more consistent then they could become a fantasy powerhouse.  They sure have the talent for it.

It’s been a couple weeks since Brian Westbrook’s ankle surgery was announced, and fantasy footballers everywhere reacted immediately.

After his value dropped almost one full round, it has held steady since then.  Here is his average draft position for 12-team leagues:

As you can see, a consensus on Brian Westbrook was arrived at quickly.  He is now sandwiched between Frank Gore and Brandon Jacobs.

Even though he’s already a known injury risk, there are plenty of people willing to snag Westbrook in the early 2nd round.  If he heals quickly and remains healthy, he could end up a steal for those who take the risk.

In 2007, wide receivers with 90+ receptions outnumbered running backs with 300+ carries.  That was the first time it happened since 2002.

At the time, it wasn’t clear if it was a fluke or a new trend in how NFL offenses operate.  To follow up the original article with data from 2008, it looks like it probably is a trend.

According to Pro-Football-Reference, there were 6 wide receivers with 90 or more receptions while only 5 running backs received 300 or more carries.

Both high-use wide receivers and running backs dipped last year, with running back studs dropping to a low not previously seen this century.

Based on the previous trend in this graph, these two graphs don’t intersect much.  There was a running back bubble period where up to a thirteen running backs received 300 carries or more.  However, no one is expecting that to happen this year.

Just like the stock market has bull and bear cycles, the NFL appears to have passing and rushing cycles.  Since the next couple of years look to be pass-heavy, it’s easy to imagine Jim Cramer screaming “BUY BUY BUY!” on wide receivers.

The typical mantra that running backs are the corner stone of a fantasy football team is slowly fading away.  Even now, with minimal action happening in the NFL, wide receivers are creeping up further in ADP rankings at the expense of running backs.

Here you can see Randy Moss and Calvin Johnson passing Clinton Portis and Marion Barber in 12-team drafts over the past two months.

The driving force for this shift seems to be a perceived lack of quality WRs.  In years past, it wouldn’t be uncommon to see running backs taken in 11 out of 12, or even 12 out of 12 picks in the first round.  This year, there are already 3 wide receivers in the top 12 in ADP (Fitz, Johnson, Moss), and Calvin Johnson is knocking at the door.

The combination of increased passing in the NFL along with more running back committees is making the reliable wide receivers pretty valuable. If you’re used to stocking up on running backs, this might be a good time to evaluate how you’ll structure your team this year.

The flash-and-dash Reggie Bush has just dropped below Pierre Thomas in fantasy football average draft rankings. The graph below shows their ADP trends in 10-team mock drafts.

You can now draft either one in the mid 4th round.  What’s surprising is that Reggie’s value has not decreased much.  The switch has mostly been due to an increase in Pierre Thomas‘ value.

Just yesterday, fantasy writer Tom Kessenich said on Twitter that Thomas could be a monster this year.  Good timing on his part.  Looks like he’s on to something.

The cat is out of the bag now though.  For non-PPR leagues, there is a difficult choice to make between the two Saints running backs.

It will be interesting to see how each of their draft rankings change this summer.  Bush is coming off of knee surgery, and Thomas bruised his left wrist this past Saturday.  With these injuries, this battle may be decided in the trainer’s room.

Since Terrell Owens went to the the Bills there has been a shakeup in fantasy rankings everywhere.  The exact change in fantasy value for everyone involved has been a big question though.  Fantasy Football Fools recently wrote a good article describing the effect on Romo’s fantasy value.

As the Fools suggest, it’s now clear that Tony Romo has been hit hard by Owens’ depature.  A look at their recent ADP trends shows that Romo is still dropping in the draft boards.

Tony Romo can currently be drafted in the late fifth round (5.08).  At this rate he’s creeping towards the 6th round bargain bin QBs.  He’s already behind Philp Rivers and Aaron Rodgers, two solid quarterbacks with high upside.

Owens signed on March 8, and it looks like his value in the graph has already accounted for the move.  Romo, on the other hand, continues to creep down.

It looks like fantasy drafters are still adjusting to Romo’s new value.  It could be because several questions remain.  Can Roy Williams fill T.O.’s shoes?  How much emphasis will Dallas place on the running game?  And what happens if poor Tony hurts his little pinkie finger again?

A lot of fantasy drafters that go by value based drafting (VBD) tend to pick up quarterbacks in the middle rounds.  If you’re one of them, Romo might be one guy to keep an eye on.

Wide receivers are a tricky position to draft.  There’s a new article on WR strategy at the Bleacher Report detailing how to think about the wide receiver position in 2009.

Here’s a quick run-down of the top four WRs this year.  Larry Fitzgerald is leading the pack so far, with Andre Johnson, Randy Moss, and Calvin Johnson right behind him.  Here is a graph of their 12-team Average Draft Position so far this year.

There has been no movement in the top four since the draft, with everyone holding steady.  It’s definitely going to take at least an early 2nd round draft pick to snag one of the top four.

Draft strategies get interesting when it comes to wide receivers.  If you have a beginning draft spot, you’ll miss them completely.  A RB/WR/WR strategy might be a good way to get decent WR depth if you feel you can trust your #1 RB.

Donovan McNabb has been on a steadily increasing path for over a month and has settled at the beginning of the 6th round.  This is his ADP trend for 12-team mock drafts.

Philly picked up Jeremy Maclin and LeSean McCoy with their first two picks of the draft, which will boost the offense.

The Eagles admit that they were considering trading for Anquan Boldin, but the asking price was too high.  If that deal had gone through he might have been instantly propelled into the 3rd or even 2nd round.

Philadelphia has always been a pass-first offense.  McNabb still has the drive to win a championship and knows that he doesn’t have much left in the tank.  This could be a breakout year for him, and his ADP is adjusting accordingly.

The recent NFL draft has many complex effects on fantasy football, some of which won’t be known until the season gets closer.

Some effects have been immediate, however.  Both Thomas Jones and Joseph Addai have seen their ADP rankings drop since the draft on April 25-26.  Here is a graph of their ADP for 12-team leagues including before and after the draft.

The addition of Shonn Greene to the Jets has sent Thomas Jones from a 3.11 ADP down to the mid 4th round where he continues to slide.

Addai’s value is plummeting as well due to the Colts drafting Donald Brown with their first round pick.

Both of these backfields bear watching because they may end up in full-blown committees by the time the season starts.  Fantasy drafters are already starting to look elsewhere for their RB2.