Cam Newton's ADP is Record-Breaking

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Cam Newton , last year’s NFL MVP, is now breaking fantasy football records. And this one’s not even close.

Never before has the top quarterback in fantasy football been drafted this late. Going back at least 10 years, a quarterback has always been selected in the first two rounds of fantasy football drafts. The second-lowest ADP for the top quarterback was for Drew Brees in 2013 when he was drafted at 2.07.

Year Top Pre-Season Quarterback ADP Source
2016 Cam Newton 3.04 Source
2015 Andrew Luck 1.10 Source
2014 Peyton Manning 1.06 Source
2013 Drew Brees 2.07 Source
2012 Aaron Rodgers 1.02 Source
2011 Michael Vick 1.05 Source
2010 Aaron Rodgers 1.07 Source
2009 Drew Brees 1.11 Source
2008 Tom Brady 1.06 Source
2007 Peyton Manning 1.10 Source

This year, the top quarterback, Cam Newton, is not being drafted until the mid 3rd round.

Let that sink in. The quartback position has been devalued so much, that you can load up on two top-tier running backs or wide receivers, and still draft the #1 quarterback.

No doubt, the Late Round Quarterback theory promoted by JJ Zachariason and others has had something to do with this change. It is surprising how drastic the change is across the board and how widely accepted that theory has now become.

Since Cam is the top QB this year, let’s look at his ADP in more detail to see if it has a chance of rising. Below is his ADP trend for the past month in 12-team fantasy football mock drafts.

Cam Newton Fantasy Football Average Draft Position

Cam Newton

Cam Newton’s average draft position is holding steady around 3.05 in standard 12-team leagues. Considering that he was the top fantasy quarterback last year, and he’s getting back his best weapon in Kelvin Benjamin, the third round could be a steal for him.

The latest reports, however, are that he “hasn’t looked particularly sharp”. And there are some who believe he will regress from last year’s big numbers. Those doubts will likely keep his ADP depressed and outside of the top two rounds.

Another thing to keep in mind is that if you’re drafting with knowledgeable players, you will likely still see Newton’s name in the 3rd round. However, if you are drafting with inexperienced fantasy football players, they may not know that quarterback values have plummetted this year and may draft Newton earlier than his ADP.

Conclusion

No matter what the reasons, Cam Newton, and the rest of the quarterbacks this year are being drafted significantly lower than in past years.

You can try a free fantasy football mock draft yourself to get a feel for how this impacts your draft strategy!

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Categories: ADP, mock drafts, rankings, advice, draft strategy, news