Avoid These Three Running Back Busts in Fantasy Football (2025)

Draft day is all about finding value — but it’s just as important to avoid the landmines. Every year, a handful of running backs look like “safe” bets in the middle rounds, only to sink fantasy teams because their price tag bakes in workloads and outcomes they’re unlikely to deliver.

From our research, three names stand out in 2025 as clear bust risks at current ADP.

Alvin Kamara — Dead Zone Trap

Kamara’s reputation and name value keep him elevated, but the data shows he fits the classic ESPN Round 5–8 dead zone archetype.

• RB production cliff: Running backs drafted in Rounds 6–10 averaged only 8.6 PPR points per game, compared to 16.1 PPG for those drafted in the first five rounds.

• In contrast, wide receivers hold steadier — Rounds 1–5 WRs averaged 14.3 PPG, while Rounds 6–10 WRs only dipped to 12.7 PPG. That means middle-round WRs offer safer production, while RBs plummet.

Drafting Kamara in that range means you’re paying for “old Kamara” while bypassing WRs who deliver far better cost-adjusted output. The ESPN “comfort tax” — drafters pushing familiar RBs up a round or two — only makes the trap worse.

The research frames it simply: Kamara can be fine, but at ESPN prices he’s far more likely to disappoint relative to surrounding wideouts. If you want to test different builds, try a fantasy football mock draft and see how often WRs outperform Kamara at his current slot.

James Conner — Age, Health, and Room Pricing

Conner is one of the trickiest players to evaluate. He’s efficient when on the field, but the combination of age (29), health load, and ESPN inflation puts him firmly on the bust radar.

• Age/health flags: Conner is grouped with backs like Aaron Jones and Austin Ekeler as health/age regression candidates at price. Even if he maintains efficiency, durability risk looms large.

• ESPN Round 5–7 push: Like Kamara, Conner gets yanked up a full round in ESPN drafts compared to sharper platforms. Paying that tax means you’re buying risk at a premium, while passing on WRs in the most value-rich pocket of the draft.

The research notes that this isn’t a “do not draft” situation. Conner still projects for solid touches. But when opportunity cost is factored in, you’re essentially betting against history: that a late-career RB can hold up and outperform safer WRs available at the same price.

That’s a structural bust bet. To understand how price pressure shapes risk, review our fantasy football ADP data and notice how Conner is consistently pulled into the danger zone.

Kenneth Walker — Workhorse Price for a Committee Profile

Walker is electric with the ball, but the research repeatedly flags Seattle’s committee fragility.

• Charbonnet factor: When Zach Charbonnet started four games last season, he averaged 18.8 PPR points per game. That’s not complementary usage — it’s proof the Seahawks view this as a two-back system.

• Injury history: Walker’s durability issues amplify the risk. Paying “every-down back” prices when his own teammate has already shown league-winning upside in spot starts is an expensive gamble.

• Committee bust framing: The research highlights Walker in the “optimism priced in” bucket — talented players where drafters ignore clear workload splits.

In other words, you’re not drafting Walker alone; you’re drafting him plus the shadow of Charbonnet. And in ESPN rooms where he costs a top-20 RB pick, that’s a fragile proposition. Compare his ranking with alternatives in our fantasy football rankings to see the gap between name value and actual projection.

The Bigger Picture: Why These Three Busts Matter

These three names illustrate the macro math behind bust risk:

• RBs collapse after Round 5, averaging nearly half the PPG of early-round counterparts.

• ESPN drafts exaggerate this effect, pushing familiar RBs (Kamara, Conner, Montgomery, Swift, etc.) a round earlier than their true value.

• Committee and fragility flags (Walker in Seattle, Jones in Minnesota, Etienne in Jacksonville, Ekeler in Washington) turn “workhorse” price tags into dangerous overpays.

The opportunity cost is massive. The research shows that in start-7 builds, spending early capital on QBs/TEs or forced RBs leaves you filling FLEX with a 10.7 PPG replacement player instead of a 15+ PPG WR/RB. That structural leak alone can sink your season.

Final Word

Kamara, Conner, and Walker aren’t bad players — but at current ADP, they’re bad bets. Drafting them in the middle rounds exposes you to the worst combination: steep RB falloff, platform overpricing, and committee/age fragility.

If you want to win your draft, lean into the safer wide receiver pockets and let someone else pay the comfort tax. Avoid these busts, and you’ll be walking into Week 1 with a roster built on value, not hope.

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