Thursday Night Football Preview
Spread: Cowboys –9, Over/Under: 47.5
The Seattle Seahawks are in the second week of a brutal four-week stretch where they play the 49ers (twice), the Eagles, and this week, the Dallas Cowboys. It doesn’t get much tougher than that! The Cowboys, on the other hand, have faced the Giants, Panthers, and Commanders in the last three weeks. While the Seahawks have lost three of their last four games, Dallas has three consecutive blowout wins. Seattle needs this game to stay in contention for a playoff spot, while the Cowboys appear to be a lock for at least a Wildcard.
Showdown Strategy
As a home favorite by more than a touchdown, the public will be heavy on Dallas this game. Dak Prescott, CeeDee Lamb, and Tony Pollard will all be chalk plays with high ownership. I would also expect these players will have significant usage in the Captain spot, as well. Historically, Captains come from the favored team about 75% of the time in the top 1% of lineups. If I were to use a player from Seattle in the Captain spot, I would probably go with a wide receiver, with Tyler Lockett being my first choice.
As far as my expectations for this game, I think Vegas generally has it right. The Cowboys have an implied total of about 28 and Seattle’s implied total is 19. Given that Dallas is giving up just 16.8 points per game and the Seahawks are scoring about a point under the league average, it makes sense to go heavy on Cowboys players. Dallas also scores more points per game than any other team and also has the most defensive touchdowns. I’m probably going to go heavy on the Cowboys this week with mostly 4-2 or even 5-1 builds.
Here are the players I’m considering for my GPP lineups this week.
Captain Choices (1.5x salary, 1.5x points)
CeeDee Lamb, WR, Cowboys ($17,100)
CeeDee Lamb will be a popular choice in the Captain spot, and with good reason. Over the last five weeks, he is averaging 30.5 DraftKings fantasy points. No player on the slate has a higher ceiling than Lamb. In a game where Dallas is favored by 9.5 points, Dak Prescott and Lamb are almost impossible to ignore as Captains, but I like Lamb a bit more because I expect he will be lower owned. He’s also getting 31% of the targets since Week 7 and almost 50% of end zone targets. It’s a chalk play, for sure, but I’d rather talk the chalk at Captain and try to differentiate my lineup in the flex spots.
Zach Charbonnet, RB, Seahawks ($10,200)
Zach Charbonnet is a bold choice at Captain, but there is an argument for it. First the negatives; he’s on team that a road underdog by a significant margin and he’s not known as a pass catcher. However, there are also some solid reasons to use Charbonnet in this role, the first being leverage against the field. He’s probably going to be use around 5%-10% in the Captain spot as opposed to the 25% or so that Lamb and Dak Prescott will see. Besides leverage, Charbonnet has been used as a bell cow back in Kenneth Walker’s absence. He’s received 75% of the rushing attempts and a 15% target share the last two weeks. While the Cowboys defense can be dominant, it is more vulnerable against the run. Because of Charbonnet’s recent increase in the passing game, a negative game script shouldn’t affect his usage too much. Lamb or Prescott are the safer choices, but Charbonnet could pay off in a large-field tournament.
Top Flex Options
Dak Prescott, QB, Cowboys ($11,000)
I prefer Prescott in the Flex because I like Lamb’s ceiling more, but I wouldn’t have an issue using Dak as a Captain. He’s a must-use in your lineup. He’s scored over 30 fantasy points in four of the last five weeks on DraftKings. Seattle is 22nd in passing yards allowed, so Prescott should have a fairly easy day. If anything, the Cowboys could go run-heavy this game if they get up early, but that’s just one more reason to use him in the Flex instead of the Captain role.
DK Metcalf, WR, Seahawks ($9,600)
Aside from Lamb, I think Metcalf has the highest ceiling in this game, so I definitely want to fit him into lineups where I can. The Seahawks are likely to go pass-heavy in this game, so Metcalf should see plenty of targets.
Tony Pollard, RB, Cowboys ($9,800)
As the lead back on a home favorite, Pollard would be considered a chalk play here. I do think his upside is capped, however, so if I use him, I want to fill out my roster with lower-owned high-upside players.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks ($7,200)
Lockett would be my pivot from Metcalf if I need salary relief. While Metcalf has the potential for big plays, Lockett gets more endzone targets. I would imagine similar ownership numbers for both, so it’s really a matter of preference and price.
Cowboys Defense ($5,600)
The Cowboys have six defensive touchdowns this season, the most in the league. They have scored 15 or more points in six of their 11 games. The Dallas defense is sure to be highly owned, but it’s still tough to fade them.
Brandon Aubrey, K, Cowboys ($4,800)
Both kickers are in play, but I prefer Aubrey with the high team total for Dallas.
Rico Dowdle, RB, Cowboys ($4,200)
Seattle gives up the 28th most fantasy points to running backs, so it’s a nice matchup for the Dallas backfield. Dowdle has played well in a complementary role to Pollard. If he can sneak a touchdown into this game, he’ll more than pay off his salary.
My Lineup
CeeDee Lamb (Captain)
Dak Prescott
Cowboys Defense
Zach Charbonnet
Rico Dowdle
Brandon Aubrey
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