FanDuel Wild Card Weekend
The first week of the playoffs is here, and we have some great matchups this week that should allow for a ton of scoring.
Instead of building a lineup, this week we will be going through each position and listing some players we think are going to be chalky, overpriced, undervalued, and potential sleepers.
In the end its up to you on how you want to build your lineup, but hopefully this helps guide you on what chalk players to pair with some undervalued gems.
Quarterbacks
Chalk – Josh Allen (BUF vs PIT) - $9300
The most expensive Quarterback of the wildcard weekend is Josh Allen, and for good reason.
Allen finished as the top fantasy QB this season, mostly due to his rushing stats. Allen finished with 524 yards (4th among QBs) and a league-leading 15-rushing touchdowns by a QB.
The Bills face a Pittsburgh team who really doesn’t have a good defense this year, so Allen should be able to feast.
Overpriced/Bust – Patrick Mahomes (KC vs MIA) - $8000
If you had Patrick Mahomes this season in fantasy, you probably felt a little disappointed with his play.
Mahomes eclipsed the 300 yard mark only four times this season, with three of them just barely getting over the hump. Mahomes did face Miami at home in November as well, only throwing for 185 yards and two touchdowns. He also lost a fumble.
It seems as though Mahomes isn’t quite as elite as he was with Tyreek Hill, and the sudden decline of TE Travis Kelce makes this offense way less potent than it once was. I could see Mahomes struggling in this one.
Undervalued – Jared Goff (DET vs LAR) - $7700
Jared Goff has a lot of things going for him in this one, making him an obvious undervalued choice.
Goff is at home (where he typically plays better), is facing his old team (revenge?), and playing against a pretty bad pass defense. All of these things, plus the fact that the Lions’ offense has looked great this year, make him a solid choice if you are saving some salary.
Sleeper - Baker Mayfield (TB vs PHI) - $7200
The Philadelphia secondary has been horrible this season, making Baker Mayfield our sleeper for the QBs. Mayfield is the second cheapest QB behind Mason Rudolph (lol), and has one of the easier defensive matchups of the weekend.
Baker has looked good as a Buc, and Mike Evans has been instrumental in making that offense explosive. This game is in Tampa, which bodes well for Baker, plus the Eagle run defense is actually quite good, meaning the Buccaneers will have to throw if they want to move on.
Running Back
Chalk – Kyren Williams (LAR @ DET) - $9000
I don’t love the matchup, but Kyren Williams is the only one I’d consider chalk at this price level. Raheem Mostert is injured and probably won’t see his usual work, and after that it really isn’t “chalky”.
That being said, Williams is so highly utilized in the Rams’ offense that I think he should be fine regardless of the matchup. Williams also is often utilized in the passing game, especially against tougher defenses.
If Williams sees his usual 20 carries and 4-5 targets, you should be happy with the results regardless of the total yardage.
Overvalued/Bust – Raheem Mostert (MIA @ KC) - $8200
Raheem Mostert finally missed time this season, which is very typical for the veteran back.
He now returns after a two game absence nursing a knee injury, and is facing one of the better run-stopping defenses in the NFL.
Now Mostert did have a nice 85 yard, one touchdown game against the Chiefs when they played in early November, but that was before the knee injury.
Figuring Mostert isn’t 100%, Devon Achane should see more work, making Mostert a high-risk play this weekend.
Undervalued – Najee Harris (PIT @ BUF) - $6500
Najee Harris turned his season around in the second half, especially in the last three games of the season.
Harris rushed for 112 yards, 122 yards, and 78 yards in his last three contests, scoring 4 times in the process.
Buffalo is susceptible to the ground attack moreso than through the air, and I don’t trust Mason Rudolph to do much downfield.
Still, Pittsburgh seems fine with running Harris into the ground to finish the season, so hopefully he sees another 25 carries in this one.
Sleeper – Rico Dowdle (DAL vs GB) - $5000
The Packers’ defense hasn’t been good this season, especially when it comes to stopping the run. That usually bodes well for the second-string back, regardless of the team they are on.
In this case it’s Rico Dowdle, who has seen his fair share of work behind Tony Pollard.
Figuring the Cowboys try to exploit that mismatch, Dowdle should see some opportunities. I don’t necessarily think he will light it up, but a touchdown is very much in the cards this weekend.
Wide Receiver
Chalk – CeeDee Lamb (DAL vs GB) - $10000
There is a reason CeeDee Lamb is the highest priced player in FanDuel this week, both thanks to his matchup and to his #1 WR finish in fantasy.
Lamb has suddenly become THE focal point of the offense, seeing at least 10 targets in 13 games. He hasn’t seen less than 10 since November 23 when he had nine.
Lamb has been dominant as of late, and I don’t think the Packer secondary scares me enough to stay away.
Overvalued/Bust – AJ Brown (PHI @ TB) - $8200
Something isn’t right in Philly, and besides that the Eagles have a bit of an injury problem heading into wildcard weekend.
Jalen Hurts left Week 18 with a finger injury, and AJ Brown left with what looked like a serious knee injury.
Somehow both seem fine and are planning on playing this weekend. That said, Brown has been very volatile recently and seems to be becoming an issue in the locker room. Add to that the injury issues and Brown could easily bust in this wildcard matchup.
Undervalued – Chris Godwin (TB vs PHI) - $6900
Chris Godwin was overshadowed by Mike Evans’ 2023 season, but he still managed to hit 1000 yards receiving. He saw plenty of targets over the 2023 campaign, making him a great option in a plus matchup this weekend.
The Eagles have a pretty bad secondary, which is why I like Baker Mayfield as well. That said, Evans and Godwin should feast in what could be a high scoring game with tons of passing.
Both defenses are relatively good at stopping the run, so this could turn into a shootout as both teams abandon the run game early (we hope).
Sleeper – Khalil Shakir (BUF vs PIT) - $5800
Khalil Shakir has had some solid games recently, which can’t be said for fellow Wide Receiver Gabe Davis.
Davis left last week’s matchup with a PCL sprain and is currently questionable. Now my guess is Gabe pushes to play, but even if he does suit up he may not do much on an injured knee.
Shakir saw six targets last week against Miami, catching all six for 105 yards. That should be enough evidence to use Shakir as a sleeper against a bad pass defense.
Tight End
Chalk and Overvalued/Bust – Travis Kelce (KC vs MIA) - $7200
I probably would have had Sam LaPorta here under Chalk and Travis Kelce as a bust, but I think he can serve both purposes here.
Is Kelce done being the must start Tight End in fantasy? Maybe…maybe not. But safe to say the Chiefs will try everything to get their star TE the ball in this tough matchup.
Kelce started the year as his typical self, but really struggled in November and December. His worst game actually came against the Dolphins (in KC), catching just three passes for 14 yards.
The KC passing attack is no longer as scary, so if the Dolphins home in on stopping Kelce, he will bust again. That said, it’s still Kelce, so it wouldn’t be surprising to see him at least score a touchdown.
Undervalued – David Njoku (CLE @ HOU)
David Njoku’s 2023 season was a rollercoaster. He started off cold, suffered a horrific burn injury, and then suddenly exploded to finish the season.
He scored double digit points in each of his last four games, and he scored four touchdowns over that same stretch.
One of those games was in Houston, where he caught six-of-nine targets for 44 yards and a touchdown.
QB Joe Flacco and Njoku are leading this offense (as everyone guessed), and Houston isn’t really a scary defense, so figure Njoku could outperform his salary/ranking.
Sleeper – Tucker Kraft (GB @ DAL) - $5300
Tucker Kraft has been a vital part of the Green Bay offense after Luke Musgrave went down with a kidney injury. He maintained that role even with Musgrave returning for Week 18.
Kraft has averaged 6 targets over his last six games, and with the Green Bay receivers constantly battling injuries, he has to be a part of the passing attack.
This is a real test for Jordan Love and the young Packer squad, and figuring Dallas tries to rush as much as possible, Kraft could be a great safety valve when Love needs to get rid of the ball quickly.
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