Nick Chubb Fantasy 2024
One of the most challenging decisions a fantasy football manager has to make is when to draft injured players. The NFL has a 100% injury rate, and many players enter training camp recovering from an injury. When healthy, Nick Chubb is one of the best running backs in the sport. However, he is often injured and has had a few serious injuries during his career.
Last season, in Week 2, Chubb suffered a gruesome knee injury that needed surgery to repair his ACL and MCL. Chubb is expected to return in 2024, but his status is currently up in the air. It seems unlikely we will have clarity on Chubb's return during fantasy draft season, so where should he be drafted?
Chubb's ADP is 66th overall and RB23. Selecting him as high means many fantasy managers are hoping for a return in the first half of the season. Chubb is on the Physically Unable to Perform list and has missed all of training camp. If he starts the regular season on that list, he must miss the season's first four games. It is hard to draft a player who will miss at least the first month in the seventh or eighth round. With Chubb, every fantasy manager is chasing league-winning upside. At his peak, he is one of the best running backs in the NFL and an RB1 in fantasy. In his six-year career, he has averaged double-digit fantasy points per game. What makes Chubb elite as a running back is his efficiency. He has never averaged below 5.0 yards per carry in any year of his career. But Chubb has missed time with injury in three of the past four seasons. Entering his age-29 season, coming off another major knee surgery, there is plenty of reason to be skeptical.
When drafting Chubb, you must decide how risk-averse you are as a manager. There is a chance Chubb will not be able to impact your team until Week 7 or 8. But, he could return RB1 value after that point. Also, it is essential to know your league settings before the draft. If you have IR spots, that makes drafting Chubb easier because you can stash him on the IR unit until he is ready to return. Most of the discussion around Chubb this offseason is that he is rehabbing well. The last update from the Browns was on July 29th, when Browns GM Andrew Berry said he has "a little way to go" in recovery. Everyone should be concerned about Chubb's lengthy injury history. Dating back to college, he has had multiple knee surgeries to fix his ACL, MCL, and PCL (all vital ligaments in the knee). While he has successfully recovered and even come back stronger from all those injuries, he is older now, and you never know how his body will respond.
Also, it is worth mentioning that the Browns have a new offensive coordinator for 2024. They brought in former Bills OC Ken Dorsey, who brings a pass-heavy offense. In his only full season as the Bills OC in 2022, the team was eighth in the NFL in pass attempts and 15th in rush attempts. That will be a significant change for a Browns team that has been perennially in the top five in rush attempts each of the past two seasons. So not only will Chubb not be fully healthy to begin the year, but the Browns will likely run the ball less.
Ultimately, Chubb will be a high-risk, high-reward player in 2024. We do not have enough information on his return to feel strongly about drafting him at his ADP.
But if he were to fall to the 10th or 11th round, that would make him worth it. Chubb is being drafted around running backs sucks as Tony Pollard, Zack Moss, and Jaylen Warren. Each of those players is healthy and has a clear path to fantasy success early on in the season. In any league where I have an IR spot, I will consider drafting Chubb. But it is hard to waste a roster spot on him, especially if he does not step on the field until after the first month.
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