While it may seem odd to perform a dynasty mock draft before knowing the final destinations of prospects, it actually serves as a good barometer for determining the favored prospects and the overall strength of position groups heading into the draft. With that in mind, the Fantasy Football Calculator team set out to draft the best possible players on potential production, regardless of where they may end up.
1.1 Saquon Barkley, RB
1.2 Derrius Guice, RB
1.3 Nick Chubb, RB
1.4 Sony Michel, RB
1.5 Ronald Jones II, RB
1.6 Calvin Ridley, WR
1.7 Rashaad Penny, RB
1.8 James Washington, WR
1.9 Courtland Sutton, WR
1.10 Kerryon Johnson, RB
1.11 Royce Freeman, RB
1.12 D.J. Moore, WR
As with most first round dynasty drafts, our mock draft was pretty much chalk for the first twelve picks. It was extremely running back heavy, with eight of the twelve selections coming from that position. That speaks to both the depth of the position this year, as well as the relative uncertainty at the quarterback and wide receiver positions.
The wide receiver position is a bit murky, with no real stand outs. Sutton and Ridley seem to be the consensus top two, but I could see arguments for Washington, Moore, or Kirk. I think the lack of clarity led to five of the first six picks being from the running back position. Quarterbacks will also be interesting to watch, with similar issues to the wide receiver position. There is no clear talent gap between Allen, Rosen, Darnold, and Mayfield, and with no quarterback standing out, their value will largely be determined by their final destination.
Best Value: Courtland Sutton, pick #9
The answer is probably Saquon Barkley considering his outrageous physical tools. But if you don't have the pleasure of having the first pick, you will have to look elsewhere for value. So if you'll excuse some self-praise, I think the Courtland Sutton pick was great value. Depending on your preferred expert, the top wide receiver in the class is either Calvin Ridley or Courtland Sutton. And while I think Ridley is the more polished of the two, Sutton has impressive physical tools and the most perceived upside of any wide receiver prospect. Getting him in the back third of the draft is a relative steal for a first round selection.
Biggest Reach: Nick Chubb, pick #3
It pains me to say this since Nick Chubb is one of my favorite college running backs in recent memory. The guy is a battering ram of a player that causes defenders to literally bounce off him and recovered from what looked like a career threatening knee injury to run for an additional 2,500 yards over his final two seasons. However, I'm just not sure of his NFL prospects. He visibly lost explosion after the injury, and doesn't possess breakaway speed. I think Georgia's offensive line masked some deficiencies in his game and NFL defenders will make broken tackles much harder to come by. He will likely go in your first round, but I'm higher on Jones, Michel, and Penny.