Baker Mayfield shocked the fantasy world in 2024, transforming from a journeyman QB to a legitimate fantasy asset. As we look ahead to the 2025 season, the burning question is: Can Baker continue to cook, or was last year just a flash in the pan?
After bouncing between four teams in two years, Mayfield found his groove in Tampa Bay. His chemistry with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin translated into one of the more surprising QB1 performances of 2024. Now with a full offseason as the established starter and the system fully under his belt, there’s reason for optimism.
The Bucs’ offensive scheme clearly suits Mayfield’s gunslinger mentality. Head coach Todd Bowles has publicly committed to maintaining the offense that worked so well last year, which bodes well for Baker’s fantasy outlook. The team’s commitment was also evident when they signed him to that contract extension midway through last season.
Looking at the supporting cast, it just got significantly better. The Bucs used their first-round pick (19th overall) on Ohio State wide receiver Emeka Egbuka, making him the first receiver the team has drafted in the opening round since Jason Licht selected Mike Evans back in 2014. Buccaneers Egbuka profiles similarly to Chris Godwin ESPN as a versatile, do-everything receiver with reliable hands and polished route-running ability. Mayfield has already shown his excitement about the pick, taking Egbuka and his family out to brunch shortly after the rookie arrived in Tampa. ESPN
This new “abundance of riches” at receiver gives Mayfield one of the NFL’s most impressive arsenals, with Evans, Godwin, 2024 breakout Jalen McMillan, and now Egbuka. The Bucs also added Oregon’s electric wide receiver/punt returner Tez Johnson in the seventh round, Buccaneers providing even more offensive flexibility. With such a deep receiver room, Mayfield should have matchup advantages to exploit every week.
The defense got stronger too, with the Bucs adding cornerback Benjamin Morrison (second round), cornerback Jacob Parrish (third round), outside linebacker David Walker (fourth round), and defensive lineman Elijah Roberts (fifth round). Buccaneers An improved defense should lead to better field position and potentially more offensive possessions.
The offensive line remains a concern, though. Tampa ranked in the bottom third for pass protection last season, and Mayfield’s tendency to hold the ball can exacerbate protection issues. His scrambling ability occasionally saves broken plays, but don’t expect rushing production to be a significant part of his fantasy value.
The NFC South remains a division in transition. Atlanta’s defensive improvements and Carolina’s rebuilding efforts are worth monitoring, but this division still offers favorable matchups that Mayfield can exploit.
So where should you draft him? With the explosion of elite dual-threat QBs dominating the top tiers, Mayfield falls firmly into the QB12-15 range. He’s not someone to target in the first 8-10 rounds, but represents excellent value in the later rounds as your QB1 if you’ve loaded up on skill positions, or as a high-upside QB2.
The sweet spot for drafting Mayfield appears to be rounds 11-13 in 12-team leagues. He’s the perfect candidate for a “wait on QB” strategy, offering mid-tier QB1 upside without the premium draft capital.
Final verdict: Baker isn’t flashy, but he’s proven he can produce when given stability and weapons. With an upgraded receiving corps that now includes Egbuka, his passing volume and touchdown potential look even more promising. While the rushing upside that defines elite fantasy QBs isn’t there, he could easily outperform his draft position if the new offensive pieces click.
Draft position: Rounds 10-12 (QB10-13) Projected stats: 4,350 yards, 31 TDs, 13 INTs, 150 rushing yards, 2 rushing TDs
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