DraftKings Value Plays and Busts for Week 4
Blurb: Top value picks and players to avoid for your DraftKings Sunday slate competitions.
Current Record: Values 10-2, Busts 8-4
Quarterback Value: Russel Wilson ($5,800) at Chicago Bears
The Broncos are in absolute disarray after the 70-point shelling last week, and Russel Wilson looks like a shell of himself. But fantasy football is not real life, and despite how mediocre his play has been, he's currently sitting at QB5 from a fantasy perspective. He has the best possible matchup against the Bears this week and is priced against the public perception and not the actual fantasy upside.
Quarterback Bust: Lamar Jackson ($7,700) at Cleveland Browns
Lamar Jackson's legs will always afford him a higher floor and major fantasy upside, but the Browns defense is the real deal. With a banged-up offense across the board, you have to assume that Baltimore will struggle to move the ball. His legs are priced in here, but this is poor value and Jackson is only a differential play.
Running Back Value: De'Andre Swift ($5,700) vs. Washington Commanders
De'Andre Swift was cast off from Detroit due to his inability to go north and south effectively. Turns out he just needed the best offensive line in football to fix that issue. After getting one carry in week 1, he's averaged 22 a game since. Other backs remain involved, but Swift will see the majority of the carries in this one, and the Commanders are mediocre defending the run.
Running Back Bust: Derrick Henry ($7,000) vs Cincinnati Bengals
Derrick Henry has really struggled this season, but I think the major concern is the offensive line and the Titans overall. Henry didn't magically slow down or shrink. The Titans can't block and can't throw which is allowing teams to tee up on Henry and the run game. Cincinnati's defense remains excellent, especially against the rush, so avoiding Henry in this matchup will be in your best interest.
Wide Receiver Value: Tank Dell ($4,600) vs. Pittsburgh Steelers
Tank Dell just broke the Texans receiving record last week and his chemistry with CJ Stroud is blatantly obvious. He will continue to see targets in this offense, even when the Texans are playing with a lead as we saw last weekend. The Steelers' pass rush is no joke, so there is a definite downside here, but if Strout has time to pass, Pittsburgh's secondary is very bad. Dell's big play ability makes this a very high upside pick on a budget.
Wide Receiver Bust: Mike Evans ($7,000) at New Orleans Saints
Mike Evans has continued to put up fantasy points in spite of a terrible offensive line and a limited quarterback due to a heavy target load and three touchdowns in three games. Unfortunately for him, this kind of output is unsustainable, especially in the matchup with the Saints. Marcus Lattimore and the Saints defense have held Evans to 2 or fewer catches in 5 of the last 11 games in this matchup. This is going to be a tough day all around for the Buccaneers offense.
Tight End Value: Pat Friermuth ($3,400) at Houston Texans
I'm intrigued by the price drop on Mark Andrews even in a brutal matchup, but your best true value pick on the slate is Pat Friermuth. His bargain barrel pricing is driven by the fact that he only has 9 targets in the season, but he remains active in the red zone with two touchdown catches. This is also a very favorable matchup with the Texans struggling overall in coverage and giving up a couple of big days to tight ends already.
Tight End Bust: Dallas Goedert ($4,400) vs. Washington Commanders
Dallas Goedert is still being targeted in this offense, with 14 in his last two games, but his route combinations are much more underneath than seam-related. Given that, his depth of target is not yielding much in the way of yards. Until we see meaningful downfield passing to the tight end, Goedert is going to be a boom-bust option depending on red zone targets, not an appealing option with a slightly elevated price.
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