Draft Strategy: 12th Spot in a Half PPR League
We’ve all been there at some point. The fantasy season approaches, and with it comes hopes of taking home fantasy gold: a goal that all starts with the fantasy football draft. Everyone has a different opinion of the best draft spot, but one thing that seems universal is that no one wants to draft last (except, at times, in keeper leagues.) If you find yourself in this position, don’t panic. It is possible to win your fantasy league from any draft position, even the dreaded 12th spot. As long as you go into the draft with a basic strategy and the willingness to adapt as the draft goes on, drafting at the end of the first round should not be a death knell for your fantasy season. Let’s look at your options and what you should consider if you’ve drawn the 12th overall pick.
Rounds 1 and 2
The first thing to do when drafting in the 12th spot is to get a feel for which players may be available to you at the end of the first round. With 11 players going ahead of you, you are starting at a slight disadvantage, so having a plan in place can go a long way toward helping you overcome being at the back of the line. Drafting in the 12th spot might require you to take more risks than those drafting at other positions. The goal is to win your league, not just make the playoffs, so you may have to think outside the box. To that end, there is an argument to be made for taking a top TE with one of your first two picks. Having a clear positional advantage at TE could make it difficult for your opponents to match your overall production. You could also draft back-to-back wide receivers. The top options would be Davante Adams, Garrett Wilson, and Marvin Harrison. Harrison could be worth a top-15 pick, but it feels like you’d be drafting him at his ceiling at that price, so I’d lean toward the well-established Adams and one of my top breakout candidates in Wilson. Running back is also an option. I have seen Jonathan Taylor fall to the end of the first, and if that happens, he’s hard to pass up.
Round 3/4 Turn
By the time the draft comes back to you 22 more players will be off the board. If you went TE/WR with your first two picks then you should be looking to add the best RB available and another WR here. If you opted to double-dip at WR then you can either go TE/RB or WR/RB. Typically, I prefer to be first or last at TE so I would lean toward the WR/RB route. If a top RB fell to you then you could go back-to-back RB, but if you have gotten to the end of the third round and are targeting your first RB, you’re likely locked into a zero RB approach, so taking two in a row at this cost is not advisable. It could be tempting to take a top-tier QB if someone like Lamar Jackson falls to you. With a new contract, a new offense, and some solid weapons, Jackson has QB1 upside. But as tempting as that may be, there is solid value at QB later in the draft so I would avoid the temptation. Based on ADP, players like D.J. Moore, Cooper Kupp, Devonta Smith, James Cook, Joe Mixon, and Rachaad White could fall to you. Those are all solid options as a foundation for your squad.
Round 5/6 Turn
This is where things start getting a little difficult. By this point in the draft there will be 59 players off the board likely made up of around 7-8 QBs, 4-6 TEs, and 20-25 RBs/WRs. If you have yet to select a quarterback then turning your sights on one here makes sense. Someone like Prescott provides a safe floor and a relatively solid ceiling. Players like Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Caleb Williams, and Brock Purdy could be available at the 7/8 turn, but waiting, although waiting on the position could pay off, also comes with a lot of risk. Just be aware of draft tendencies and how many QBs are likely to come off the board before your next pick. But assuming you draft your QB there are only a couple of directions you can go with your second pick. If Kyle Pitts is available here he is worth considering. But at this point in the draft, there is still good value at TE later in the draft. If you have gone TE/2WRs/RB or 3WRs/RB, you can’t pass on RB here. The drop off from RBs available at the end of round 5 or the beginning of round 6 and those available at the 7/8 turn is steep. You should be staring down James Conner, Rhamondre Stevenson, or David Montgomery. I would be comfortable with any of them as my No. 2 RB.
Round 7/8 Turn
If you did take the risk and chose to wait on QB then you must take one here. But if you have a QB and have waited on TE then grabbing a TE and the best available WR or RB is an option here. You could also punt the TE position and load up on the other skill positions. This could be the perfect time to look to some high-upside rookies like Jonathan Brooks or Ladd McConkey and Rome Odunze. What you did in the earlier rounds will dictate this. If you only have two RBs then I would leave the 7/8 turn with at least one more. My favorite target is Jonathan Brooks or Raheem Mostert. As for WR, if you are opposed to drafting too many rookies then you could look to perennially solid, if unexciting, veterans like Diontae Johnson or breakout candidates like Jaxon Smith-Njigba. Of all these potential strategies my favorite is going RB/WR and looking to fill my TE spot at the next turn.
Later Rounds
Once you get beyond the eighth round your strategy should be well-established. There are only two options from this point on. If you have yet to draft a TE, then you get one at the 9/10 turn, and then you take a best available player approach. In a typical 16-round snake draft I like to leave the draft with 6-8 WRs, 4-5 RBs, 1 QB, and 1 TE. Some will argue that you should have a backup QB on your roster and if there are people in your league who subscribe to that philosophy and want to draft a second QB, let them. Don’t get pulled in by their approach. Unless your starting QB suffers an injury, any backup you have will be a waste of a roster space. The one caveat is if you believe one of the top rookie signal callers could break out and want to take a chance on one for later in the season. This strategy is of particular interest in keeper leagues. Otherwise, there is little reason to have more than one quarterback or TE because, for the majority of the season, they are unusable. Please don’t make the mistake of taking a defense or kicker before the first two rounds.
Recap
While receiving the 12th spot can appear daunting at first, the one major benefit of it is that you are free to take some risks. This gives you a chance to target upside and take a chance on unproven talents who carry a great deal of skill and opportunity. This doesn’t mean you should be completely reckless, but it does mean that you may be forced to reach a bit more than your leaguemates who aren’t drafting toward the end of every other round. In the end, you want a solid foundation for your starting squad and a bench full of players with the potential to force their way into your starting lineup. Just remember, the draft is only the beginning. How you manage your team will make all the difference.
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