DraftKings Value Plays and Busts for Week 16
Blurb: Top value picks and players to avoid for your DraftKings Sunday slate competitions.
Current Record: Values 45-15, Busts 38-22
Quarterback Value: Baker Mayfield ($6,000) vs Jacksonville Jaguars
Two pretty solid choices for value this week; Nick Mullins is a good boom-or-bust candidate given his weapons and the matchup, but remains risky as a completely unproven player. My bargain choice is shockingly effective Baker Mayfield, who scored 19 or more fantasy points in 7 of his 15 starts. After a solid performance against Green Bay and with a bad Jacksonville pass defense next, Mayfield has real appeal.
Quarterback Bust: Tua Tagovailoa ($7,800) vs Dallas Cowboys
The Dolphins didn't need to rely as heavily on Tua last week against the Jets' laughable offense, but that figures not to be the case against the Cowboys. Dallas was embarrassed last week, but it was on the ground not through the air. I expect the Dolphins to pound the rock more than usual in this one limiting Tua's upside.
Running Back Value: Ty Chandler ($5,600) vs Detroit Lions
With Alexander Mattison out last week, Chandler ran wild on a decent Bengals defense. With Mattison once again tracking to miss time, Chandler will be in line for a lot of volume. The Lions' run defense looks good on paper but has been significantly worse in the second half of this season. There are yards to be had.
Running Back Bust: Jonathan Taylor ($7,200) at Atlanta Falcons
Jonathan Taylor is back this week, with significant presumed volume given the absence of Zach Moss. But with Trey Sermon looking more than serviceable, I'm not sure they will rush him into 20 carries. In addition, Atlanta's front seven remains stout and has only allowed over 100 yards to running backs in a game 4 times this season.
Wide Receiver Value: Dontayvion Wicks ($4,300) at Carolina Panthers
At this point, it's worth checking the Green Bay Packers wide receiver depth chart every week to see if injuries have created a volume opportunity for someone. And this week, with Christian Watson and Jayden Reed trending toward not playing, Dontayvion Wicks is in line for some heavy work. He's shown he's capable of shouldering the load, topping 90 yards twice this season already.
Wide Receiver Bust: Jaylen Waddle ($7,800) vs Dallas Cowboys
Copy-pasting a bit from my earlier talk track on Tua, I think the Dolphins run a lot, and with Tyreek Hill back, Jaylen Waddle is back to seeing second-fiddle targets. He always has an upside due to his abilities as a wide receiver, but I'm not investing this much money on a secondary option.
Tight End Value: David Njoku ($5,300) at Houston Texans
Last week's performance warranted the $600 jump in pricing, but Njoku still comes in cheaper than the likes of LaPorta, Hockenson, and McBride. Hockenson has an equally appealing matchup and a higher floor, but I like Njoku in this spot as the cheaper option against a team that has given up the 4th most yards and most touchdowns to tight ends.
Tight End Bust: Sam LaPorta ($6,400) at Minnesota Vikings
LaPorta still has a serious impact on this game, but with such terrific options at cheaper price points, it doesn't make sense to trade up to LaPorta against a Vikings defense that has only allowed 4 tight end touchdowns all year. Save money by going Njoku or Hockenson.
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