DraftKings Value Plays and Busts for Week 18
Blurb: Top value picks and players to avoid for your DraftKings Sunday slate competitions.
Current Record: Values 51-17, Busts 44-24
Quarterback Value: Geno Smith ($6,100) at Arizona Cardinals
Geno Smith has been quietly efficient in his return from injury, clearing 17 points in both of his past two outings. With the Seahawks' playoff life on the line, you can expect them to let it all hang out. Both the Cardinals and Seahawks are in the bottom quarter of league defenses so expect a lot of scoring chances for Smith in this one.
Quarterback Bust: Jalen Hurts ($8,100) at New York Giants
Hurts sliced and diced the Giants' defense only two weeks ago, so I think his floor is pretty high. But in a negative passing game script, I wonder if Hurts has the upside to warrant this price. Not to mention the QB priced directly behind him has the highest upside out of any QB. If you are going to spend the money, I'd rather have Prescott than Hurts.
Running Back Value: Zamir White ($6,000) vs Denver Broncos
The Raiders have officially been eliminated from the playoffs, so it seems unlikely they will risk Josh Jacobs in the final game, which means it is Zamir White time again in Las Vegas. The Raiders remain committed to the run, with White seeing 20 carries last week and now getting the 2nd worst run defense in the league. Expect heavy volume and a high floor from White as a bellcow against Denver.
Running Back Bust: Alvin Kamara ($7,500) vs Atlanta Falcons
Alvin Kamara is sputtering to the finish line from a fantasy perspective seeing only 19 carries over the past two games, and only compiling 20 receiving yards. This week is a less-than-ideal matchup against a Falcons team allowing the 5th fewest points to running backs and Kamara is nicked up. Without elite volume, Kamara isn't worth the extra bucks.
Wide Receiver Value: Brandin Cooks ($5,200) at Washington Commanders
I mentioned the juicy matchup for Dak Prescott above, which also goes for his wide receivers. Brandin Cooks has seen his involvement continue to rise in the offense culminating in an 8-target game last week. While he will continue to be inconsistent in total plays, Cooks seem to have settled in as Dak's #2 receiver and that should mean big things in a must-win against the 2nd worst pass defense in the league.
Wide Receiver Bust: AJ Brown ($8,700) at New York Giants
Tailing my take above, this is a poor game script against a team that the Eagles should smash. AJ Brown also hasn't scored a touchdown since week 12 or cleared 100 yards since week 13. He has one of the higher fantasy floors in football but the juice isn't worth the price in this case.
Tight End Value: Tucker Kraft ($3,700) vs Chicago Bears
Tucker Kraft has quietly been one of the most consistent performers at the position as Luke Musgrave's injury has opened the door to targets, and Kraft has been a lot more efficient than Musgrave was clearing 10 fantasy points in each of the last 4 games. Against a Bears team that is toward the bottom in catches allowed to tight ends, expect another solid performance from Kraft that outpaces this valuation.
Tight End Bust: Sam LaPorta ($6,200) vs Minnesota Vikings
Shut down by the Vikings two weeks ago and nursing a couple of nagging injuries, I'll be curious to see how involved Sam LaPorta is in the offense. There are also questions about how hard the Lions will try given that they are locked into the three seed. This feels like a player to avoid.
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