Injury Risk and Workload Concerns Loom Large
Jonathan Taylor enters 2025 with a high profile in fantasy football rankings, currently slotted at 23 overall with an average draft position of 23.6. Yet, several red flags suggest he may underperform relative to these lofty expectations. While Taylor finished the previous season strongly, averaging 28.4 carries and 144.6 yards over the final five games, this surge came on an unsustainable workload for a running back with a growing history of injuries. Taylor played 88.7% of snaps down the stretch—a rate rarely seen among modern feature backs—raising questions about his durability over a full season. With the Colts adding rookie D.J. Giddens and veteran Khalil Herbert to the backfield, there is now legitimate risk that Taylor's early-down volume is siphoned away should he miss time or require a lighter load to stay healthy.
Offensive Uncertainty and Limited Receiving Role
Projecting Taylor’s upside is further clouded by the Colts’ uncertain offensive outlook. Despite his impressive volume last year, much of it was a function of the team’s heavy run rate, itself a product of shaky quarterback play. As Indianapolis seeks more balance, Taylor’s touches could decline, especially with competition entering the mix. Perhaps even more concerning for fantasy managers, Taylor ranked only 37th in target share (7.4%) among qualifying running backs in 2024 and was outside the top 40 in both yards per route run and first downs per route run. His limited involvement in the passing game caps his ceiling, especially in PPR formats, where dual-threat backs routinely outperform pure runners.
Recent fantasy football mock drafts continue to draft Taylor as an RB1, yet his red-zone dependency, lack of pass-game usage, and mounting injury concerns create significant downside risk. The Colts’ offensive volatility, coupled with new backfield competition and Taylor’s historical workload, make him a prime candidate to disappoint fantasy managers who invest a top-25 pick. Savvy drafters should look elsewhere for upside or, at minimum, approach Taylor with far more caution than his current draft cost suggests.
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