Monday Night Football DFS Picks: Bills at Jets
AFC East Showdown: A DFS Guide for Week 6
Monday night this week officially marks the end of the first third of the season. Some teams are overachievers, but I'm looking at you, Washington, and Minnesota. Others have been relative disappointments, like Cincinnati and Dallas, who sit at 3-3 but were just embarrassed by Detroit, 47-9. We’ve had one coach fired (Robert Salah), and somehow, DeShaun Watson continues to be the starter for the Browns. Nonetheless, some big names may be coming back from injury next week, with both Nick Chubb and TJ Hockenson rumored to be activated. If we’ve learned anything from the first six weeks, it’s that we have no idea what is going to happen over the next 12 weeks of NFL football. Enough about the season so far—let’s shift our focus to an AFC East showdown in New York as the Bills travel to take on the Jets.
Let’s take a look at the visiting Buffalo Bills’ injury report. Two big offensive names are listed as questionable: James Cook and Khalil Shakir. Cook has a toe injury and didn’t participate in practice on Thursday or Friday, but managed a limited practice on Saturday. Shakir continues to battle the ankle injury that kept him out of last week’s game against the Texans. He also didn’t practice on Thursday or Friday and logged limited participation at Saturday’s practice. While both appear to be trending upward with their injuries, it’s important to keep an eye on their status when the final injury list is announced before game time. Offensively, the Bills run the ball on 49.8% of plays, which includes all the times we see Josh Allen run the ball. The other 50.2% of the time, Allen drops back for passing plays. Surprisingly, this has been one of the more balanced offenses in terms of pass versus rush.
Now, let’s turn our eyes to the home side. The Jets have a relatively clean injury report on the offensive side, with only Tyler Conklin listed as questionable due to a hip injury. He managed limited participation in practices on Thursday, Friday, and Saturday. Logging limited practices seems to bode well for his chances to play. The obvious question in this game is how the team will play in its first game after the firing of Robert Salah. Interim coach Jeff Ulbrich is another defensive coordinator thrust into a head coaching position. Under Salah, the Jets ran the ball only 35.8% of the time, despite having Breece Hall as RB1. Meanwhile, 40-year-old Aaron Rodgers has thrown the ball on 64.2% of offensive plays for the Jets. I don’t expect these numbers to change much, as Todd Downing was named the playcaller for the Jets this week. Downing has been the passing game coordinator for the past two seasons.
With all that said, let’s see if we can leverage this information to find an edge in DFS plays!
Captain (1.5x Multiplier)
$16.5K - Josh Allen (BUF, QB)
For the past few weeks, I have tried to get a bit too fancy with my captain picks, and it has hurt my results. With the rushing upside that Allen possesses, it’s difficult to ignore him at the captain spot. Over the first five games, he has 160 rushing yards and two touchdowns. If we ignore Week 2 (only 2 yards), Allen is averaging 40 yards on the ground. With the Jets’ strong secondary, I expect Allen to use his legs a lot in this game to keep it competitive. Given that he will still have to pass the ball, I will pair Allen captain teams with at least one Bills pass catcher in the flex.
$15.0K - Garrett Wilson (NYJ, WR)
Is this the week we finally see Wilson and Rodgers truly get on the same page? Yes, he had a strong game last week, but it took him 22 (yes, you read that correctly) targets to haul in 13 for just over 100 yards. This was in a game where they trailed throughout. I feel like this is a risk, but Wilson possesses significant upside in a game without many reliable offensive options.
$14.1K - Breece Hall (NYJ, RB)
Do not overthink this play. Breece Hall has immense talent and can get work in passing downs. I love this play because of how bad the Bills’ defense has been against the run. The Bills rank dead last against the run through five weeks. The Jets' lack of dedication to the run game worries me, but if they want to rejuvenate this offense, it has to start with the run this week.
Flex
$8.2K - Dalton Kincaid (BUF, TE)
Dalton Kincaid has too much talent to continue underperforming. I am blaming his early season woes on the overall bad season all tight ends seem to be having right now. Averaging almost five targets a game, Kincaid seems destined to start cashing in on his opportunities. I don’t expect him to see as much of Gardner and DJ Reed as the Bills’ wide receivers, which increases his appeal.
$7.2K - Allen Lazard (NYJ, WR)
Has Allen Lazard become the new Randall Cobb? A trusted target for Rodgers with the ability to make big plays. Averaging almost seven targets a game, Lazard is getting plenty of opportunities to rack up fantasy points. He has caught three of Rodgers’ seven touchdown passes this season, while his fourth touchdown came from Tyrod Taylor in Week 1 garbage time. Playing him without Rodgers in your lineup is an option, but it makes the most sense to pair Lazard with Rodgers in the flex.
$5.4K - Braelon Allen (NYJ, RB)
In case you forgot, the Bills' defense is dead last against the run through five games this season. If there was ever a week to get your running game going, it’s this week for the Jets. We’ve learned that the Jets are willing to get Braelon Allen in the game. He has averaged eight touches and roughly 43 yards per game. It isn’t pretty, but the upside is there. At a low price point, Allen doesn’t need to do much to be an optimal play.
$3.6K - Jets DST
If I’ve learned anything from watching Josh Allen throughout his career, it’s that he has no issue taking risks. He has thrown at least 10 interceptions in five of six seasons. So far this season, he has thrown zero, but this is the best defense he’s faced. That screams opportunity to me. With CJ Mosley possibly returning, this defense at only $3.6K seems like a steal.
$3.0K - Ray Davis (BUF, RB)
I don’t want a lot of exposure to Davis, but I can’t ignore him in this game. It feels like there’s a lot of condensed offense, but Davis could take advantage of James Cook not being fully healthy. Davis received plenty of hype out of training camp but hasn’t been needed with how good Cook has been. Cook being out of practice during the week and only logging a limited session on Saturday concerns me about his health. Ty Johnson figures to be the third-down/change-of-pace back, but Davis would step into the main RB role if Cook misses the game or struggles to perform.
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