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Week 3 is coming to a close, and it was a wild weekend. Andy Dalton, Malik Willis, Daniel Jones, Justin Fields, Sam Darnold, and Bo Nix all finished inside the top 10 for quarterbacks. The NFC currently goes through the Vikings. What a positive journey for them as they lost their number one draft pick, JJ McCarthy, to injury, and it appeared to be doom and gloom for this team. They have done nothing but execute at a high level, annihilating the 49ers and the Texans in the last two weeks. I want to keep those positive vibes for you by breaking down not one but two games that are on tap for tonight. It’s the same joy you feel when the vending machine gives you two bags of chips.
One notable injury after yesterday's games was to Justin Herbert, whose x-rays came back negative. In an upcoming home game against their divisional rivals, the perfect Kansas City Chiefs couldn’t come at a worse time. Tre McBride and DeVonta Smith have both entered the concussion protocol. Sam LaPorta was carted off for an ankle injury and returned briefly; he didn’t finish the game.
For tonight's games, we have a declawed Jaguars team traveling to the table-breaking city of the north, where the Bills are currently -5.5 favorites. Next, what feels like the Washinton Jayden Daniels go to what was once known as the “beer capital of the world” in Cincinnati, where the Bengals are -7.5 favorites.
Game #1 – Jacksonville Jaguars vs. Buffalo Bills
Sitting at a current 46.5 O/U, the points lean toward the Bills. What is concerning is that the Bills and Jaguars are both below their projected passing percentage. We need to get right at the captain position to gain access to the high ownership must-have flex plays and gain leverage on the field.
Captain (1.5x Multiplier)
Gabe Davis ($8.1K) – WR, JAX
Davis currently leads the Jags with a 21.7% target share and 29.1% of Air Yards. He once had 4 TDs in one game against the Chiefs in the divisional round. Those passes were all thrown by his previous quarterback, Josh Allen. I try not to read too much into revenge games, but on a national stage, I want a piece. Most of his catches come to a decent distance, averaging a 14.8-yard aDOT. His upside is only slightly behind all other players, but his cost opens too many better avenues in the flex.
Flex
Josh Allen ($12.0K) – QB, BUF
There isn’t a foreseeable path that doesn’t involve Allen when it comes to the Bills offense right now. It’s a chalk play, but you don’t need to get cute here. His goal-line presence is too much to ignore, and this is a piece of the puzzle you must use to build your lineup.
Brenton Strange ($3.0K) – TE, JAX
This is a value play that is similar to Davis. Strange ripped 22.2% of the target share in his first game as a starter last week. This isn’t necessarily a punt with these numbers. It allows you to maneuver your lineups with little consequence or cost. Buffalo is weak in the slot, and TEs are pseudo-slot receivers.
Game #2 – Washington Commanders vs. Cincinnati Bengals
This game kicks off in favor of the Bengals, who have the same O/U as the other game, which has 46.5. This game should be favorable for Burrow to get right and we will see if Daniels can lead to a score this week instead of seven field goals.
Captain (1.5x Multiplier)
Zach Moss ($11.7K) – RB, CIN
Moss is a golden ticket in these game scripts; home favorites with a -6.5 spread. He is also on the field for 73% of the snaps and 70.5% of backfield touches. We don’t know how much Tee Higgins will play, and if Burrow scores quickly, we are in deep RB territory for the night. Behind him is Chase Brown, who has 10 touches in two weeks.
Flex
Jayden Daniels ($10.2K) – QB, WAS
See Josh Allen. It’s the same scenario: his legs can do so much valuable damage for the cost. Plus, I want him attached to a pass catcher, as they will be pushing for points to stay alive.
Noah Brown ($3.2K) – WR, WAS
Terry McClaurin has not been schemed well into this offense. He is positioned on one side of the field and has only had two balls of 20+ yards thrown his way so far this season. I do not trust Zach Ertz to return four times his value in my lineup. Brown has earned a role ahead of Dyami Brown and Olamide Zaccheaus, and for good reason. He had three top-10 finishes last season with the Texans and 10.3% of target share and went 3/56 receiving on only 12 routes run. Now that we know he will be more involved, I want access to his big-play capability and savings.
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