Tight End Tier Breakdown
Tight end is one of the most confounding positions in fantasy football. Beyond the top 2-3 players, it’s difficult to find consistency. But even if you pass on them there are still some great options. Three of my favorites are Arizona’s Trey McBride, Baltimore’s Mark Andrews, and Buffalo’s Dalton Kincaid. All three come with a similar ADP and have the potential to be solid anchors for your fantasy squad. They are solid options for any fantasy manager looking to secure top tight-end talent without having to pay a premium price for it. Let’s look at the strengths and weaknesses of each one, and who I prefer when all is said and done.
Trey McBride, ADP 44th Overall, TE3
The Cardinals ranked 23rd in pass percentage (55.9%) last year. But that number is a bit misleading. In the games when Kyler Murray was the starting quarterback, the team ranked 15th in pass attempts, and no quarterback targeted their tight end more than Murray did over the final eight weeks of the season. During that span, 34% of Murray’s throws went to the position. Another thing working in McBride’s favor is how involved he was down the stretch. In the first six games, McBride only saw 15 targets (2.5 per game.) This could largely be linked to the presence of fellow tight end Zach Ertz. During that same span, Ertz garnered 6.5 targets per game. However, when Ertz went down, McBride’s usage exploded. Starting in Week 6, McBride was third in targets and second in catches among all tight ends, and he was fifth in both big plays and red-zone targets, which could mean a true third-year breakout for McBride.
Still, there are a few caveats to consider. First, there’s the fact that during part of that stretch No. 1 wide receiver, Marquise Brown was either out or limited. Then there’s the small sample size. McBride has only played in 33 games in his career. Then there’s the addition of the No. 4 overall pick in this year’s NFL Draft, WR Marvin Harrison Jr. He is an elite, NFL-ready talent who will demand targets and could easily be the No. 1 target for Murray in year one. This could limit McBride’s upside. The only other question is how good this team can be in 2024. It could be a bad offense that has trouble putting up points. If that’s the case then McBride won’t have a ton of touchdown upside, but he should still see his share of red-zone targets. In the end, the targets, receptions, and yardage should be there and if several of those targets come in the red zone then the touchdowns will come. McBride is a talented, exciting player with a safe floor and solid upside.
Mark Andrews, ADP 47th Overall, TE4
Andrews’ ADP is a bit surprising to me. At 47th overall, Andrews is still considered a top-four tight end but is being taken almost 25 picks after LaPorta and Kelce. Let’s look at why. After being a dominant force at the position over several seasons, Andrews took a step back in 2023 with just three top-three TE finishes, finishing as the TE13, while missing seven games. The Ravens offense will also again be led by coordinator Todd Monken, which will mean low passing volume. The Ravens threw the football 49.7% of the time in 2023 which ranked last in the NFL. The Ravens also threw the ninth most targets to their tight ends last season. At 28 years old, Andrews is four years older than Kincaid and McBride, making durability more of a problem for him.
But there are still things to like about Andrews and his current situation. In 2023, when Andrews was active they ranked seventh in targets to the position. We also know what we are getting in Andrews. As a well-established veteran with a resume of high production, Andrews feels less risky than either Kincaid or McBride. But the strongest case for Andrews is his connection with Lamar Jackson. All three have talented signal callers distributing the ball, but Andrews is the only one who is the clear favorite target for his QB. 27% of Jackson’s career pass attempts have gone to Andrews. So although it’s not likely to be a high-volume passing game, it should be a highly efficient one. If you are looking for a safe floor with touchdown upside from a tight end who is the No. 1 target on his team then Andrews is a great pick.
Dalton Kincaid, 50th Overall, TE5
Kincaid had a strong rookie season, catching 73 of 91 targets for 673 yards and two touchdowns. This was impressive on a team with Stefon Diggs, Gabe Davis, and tight-end competition Dawson Knox. But now Diggs and Davis have departed, leaving slot receiver Khalil Shakir and TE Dawson Knox as the only remaining relevant receiving options from the 2023 depth chart. The Bills did add Curtis Samuel and drafted Keon Coleman, but Samuel has only had one season with more than 800 receiving yards in his career and Coleman is a 21-year-old rookie. This could be good for Kincaid. Kincaid is a matchup nightmare and could be deadly in the red zone. Last season, from weeks 8 to 12, after teammate Knox went on injured reserve, Kincaid saw his snap share jump to 74% and led all Bills receivers during that span with 31 receptions and was second on the team in targets, accounting for 281 yards. When extrapolated over an entire season, that’s a pace of 105 receptions for 955 yards. Josh Allen clearly trusts him, which will be important in 2024.
Still, there is one major concern for Kincaid this season. We don’t know if the Bills are willing to commit to making Kincaid an every-down player and a focal point of the offense. It’s just as likely that the coaching staff chooses to be more balanced on offense and get running back James Cook more involved. They could also decide to split the tight-end snaps more evenly among Kincaid and Knox which would not make Knox fantasy relevant but would cap Kincaid’s ceiling. While Kincaid enjoyed a 74% snap share with Knox sidelined, that snap share fell to 54% upon Knox’s return. But during the playoffs, it increased to 59% showing trust in the rookie when it mattered. I tend to lean toward the Bills knowing what they have in Kincaid and making him a key component of the passing attack. But until we see that in action it will take a certain amount of faith to take a chance on Kincaid in fantasy football drafts.
Conclusion
In this range, it’s hard to go too wrong with any of these options. But when considering my favorite among them I am aligned with their current ADP. I prefer McBride, followed by Andrews, and then Kincaid. In my opinion, McBride is the only one of these three with the upside to finish as the overall TE1. Mark Andrews should be consistent as Lamar Jackson’s No. 1 target, but I expect the Cardinals to pass more than the Ravens and be in more negative game scripts which will mean passing more to keep up with their competition. As for Kincaid, I like the talent but he is squarely my least favorite of the three because there are too many question marks surrounding the offense. The safest pick may be Andrews, but the potential league-winning pick is McBride and with only three picks separating the two it’s a no-brainer.
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