You're On The Clock: Kenneth Walker, James Cook, Joe Mixon?
Running back is an interesting position in 2024. Whether you like to load up at the position or adopt a zero or hero-RB strategy, there are plenty of options. I prefer to load up on elite pass-catching talent in the early rounds and find value at running back later. If I can draft Christian McCaffrey or Breece Hall in Round 1, I usually do it, but other than that I don’t target a running back until Round 4. That makes the list of names I’m going to discuss very interesting. James Cook, Joe Mixon, and Kenneth Walker are all worthy of a spot on any roster. Each player comes with strengths and weaknesses, but, at least in my mind, there is a clear preference. Let’s look at all three and discuss what you should do if you’re ever in this situation.
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James Cook (ADP 39th Overall, RB14)
James Cook is a polarizing player in fantasy circles. For every believer, there is a doubter. There are many things to like about Cook’s potential in 2024, but he also comes with his fair share of risk. Last season Cook was a top-12 RB, regardless of format. Cook averaged 16.5 touches per contest and there’s reason to believe he could be even more involved this season. Cook also averaged 4.7 yards per carry and 10.1 yards per reception, so the production was mostly there for the young running back. The issue was touchdowns. Cook only got in the end zone six times, and only twice on the ground, and those goal-line touches may be hard to come by again in 2024. Still, Cook is a versatile, dual-threat running back with the potential to truly breakout on a team that is suddenly in need of playmakers after losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason. Cook has a nose for breaking off long runs and if he improves upon the percentage of those runs that find the end zone he could be a true difference-maker. It’s also encouraging that Cook’s usage took a major step forward from his rookie year to his sophomore, with a much higher snap share. That was with Diggs and Davis on the field and it could improve even more now that they’re gone. But the real question surrounding the Bills and, by extension, Cook is what will the offense look like in 2024, because if it takes a step backwards and fails to be as productive as it has been in the past, then fantasy points could be scarce.
Joe Mixon (ADP 42nd Overall, RB15)
Joe Mixon was the RB6 last season in PPR formats. He ranked eighth in snap share, fifth in carries, and 13th in targets. He wasn’t a particularly efficient runner, averaging just four yards per carry and ranking 36th in yards per touch. Still, the volume he received was enough to keep him in clear RB1 territory. Mixon finished with 1,410 total yards on 309 touches, including 52 receptions. With the move to Houston, Mixon could be in store for a similar workload. Behind Mixon, the depth chart does not inspire a ton of confidence. With names like Dameon Pierce, Dare Ogunbowale, Jawhar Jordan, Cam Akers, and J.J. Taylor, Mixon should be as close to a bellcow running back as we get in the NFL. Mixon is also an upgrade in certain areas over the talent last year. In 2023, Houston struggled inside the 5-yard line scoring on just 33.3% of their attempts. Mixon hit on 37.7% of his attempts within that range, which was good enough for a top-12 ranking among all running backs. Yes, Joe Mixon just turned 28 years old which is when we often start to see a decline in production, but until we see him start to slow down we shouldn’t just assume he will. His experience and versatile skill set should fit well with what the Texans want to do and help boost their run game. Devin Singletary already found success in this offense and Mixon is a better running back and the offense should be more explosive as a whole with the addition of Stefon Diggs, and C.J. Stroud entering his second year in the league. As a fourth-round pick in fantasy drafts, it’s hard to find a lot of downside with Mixon. Beyond the possible durability concerns due to his age, he has everything else going for him. A strong offensive line, a good offensive scheme fit, and very little competition for touches make him a strong selection in the fourth round.
Kenneth Walker III (ADP 45th Overall, RB16)
The case for Walker is an easy one to make. At just 23 years old, Walker is a young, explosive, highlight-reel machine. But after an underwhelming 2023 season and some uncertainty surrounding his potential in 2024 there are some legitimate reasons for concern. Last season was a bit of a mixed bag. Walker averaged 16 PPR points per game in 10 of his 15 games. In the other five, he averaged a pedestrian 7.8 PPR points per game. If this were an outlier then I’d say to disregard it. But a similar thing happened the season before when Walker averaged over 17 points per game in 10 games and hardly registered anything in the rest. The format also matters for Walker due to his limited pass-catching upside. Throughout his career, Walker has just five games with more than three targets and has received two or fewer targets in 56.7% of his games. This caps his PPR ceiling. The Seahawks also have a new play-caller in Ryan Grubb which could be problematic for Walker. Grubb tends to lean on the passing game and with DK Metcalf, Tyler Lockett, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, and Noah Fant, he will have the personnel to do it. Some may look at the presence of Zach Charbonnet and get scared off, but I think the stable of pass-catchers could hurt Walker more than Charbonnet ever could. Charbonnet was active for nine of Walker’s best games and did not have a major impact on Walker’s usage on early downs or near the goal-line. Walker is an extremely talented player who has proven to be durable throughout his short career, missing just four games in his two seasons. He also tends to play through injuries. Last season, Walker played through a bruised shoulder, a strained oblique, a chest issue, and a tender calf and still averaged over 17 touches and 82 total yards in the games where he saw over 40% of the snaps. The usage and talent make Walker a safe RB2, but with the new offensive scheme and the other weapons surrounding him cutting into his workload, he’s more of a safe floor play than a high-ceiling one.
My Thoughts
It may surprise you, but in drafts where I find myself staring down Cook, Mixon, and Walker, my preference is Mixon. Although Mixon has never been an efficient runner, he has a history of being a productive one due to volume. I don’t see that changing in 2024. Mixon should continue to enjoy a heavy workload and might be working behind the best offensive line he’s had in his career. Both Walker and Cook are more naturally gifted and have youth on their side. But both are also in offensive situations that are harder to predict. With not much pass-catching upside, Walker could be scripted out of games in a heavier pass-friendly offense and while Cook may be more involved, the entire Bills offense could take a step back in 2024. The Texans are an offense on the rise and Mixon should be a key part of their game plan giving him a higher floor and more touchdown upside.
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