Diontae Johnson Traded To Ravens
After much speculation, it has happened. Diontae Johnson is on the move again. This time, he is heading to the greener pastures of Baltimore, where he will catch passes from MVP candidate Lamar Jackson. Just a few months ago, he was traded to the Panthers. The Ravens are sending the Panthers a fifth-round pick in exchange for Johnson and a sixth-round pick in 2025. That feels like a low cost for the Ravens who are adding another consistent weapon to their passing game. It makes sense for the win-now Ravens, but it still comes as a bit of a surprise since the Ravens were not in desperate need of additional pass catchers. It also seems like a small return for the Panthers who are giving up one of the better route runners and most dependable receivers in the league. Let’s take a look at the immediate fantasy impact of this trade.
Impact On Diontae Johnson And The Ravens Pass Catchers
Adding Diontae Johnson to a passing game that includes Zay Flowers, Rashod Bateman, Mark Andrews, and Isaiah Likely is great for Lamar Jackson and the Ravens offense. But it might not be great for anyone else. With their commitment to the run game, volume was always an issue for any player in the Ravens’ receiving room. Johnson will further complicate things. It will be hard for anyone catching passes from Jackson to push for 8+ targets per game. Johnson has almost no chance of duplicating his 27.1% target per route rate he was enjoying with the Panthers. But the quality of the targets should go up adding to better efficiency. Johnson is also likely to cut into Flowers’ 27% target share. This move also makes Rashod Bateman little more than a depth piece, although I expect he will find his way to the waiver wire in most leagues. As for Andrews and Likely who were already volatile fantasy assets and largely touchdown-dependent, the addition of Johnson makes them even more so. But the Ravens won’t get away from their identity just because they add another quality receiver. Derrick Henry will still be a focal point of this offense and an elite RB1 for fantasy. As for Johnson, he goes from being a solid, high-end WR2 with upside due to volume, to a less predictable low-end WR2/flex player with a capped ceiling. Plus, with new reports that he could potentially be the WR3 for the team and that he has been taking reps as a punt returner, his value may be even lower. Zay Flowers find it difficult to put up much more than mid-range WR2 numbers. The biggest impact of this trade, though, is on Jackson. Jackson is already the QB1 in fantasy and adding another weapon for him is unlikely to do anything to change that fact. He is a true difference-maker at the position. This move just increases his value. Anyone who has him should be very happy today. Overall, it’s a great trade for the team, but when it comes to fantasy, it impacts more players negatively than positively.
Impact On The Carolina Panthers
As for Carolina, some interesting, younger players could now be in play, but it’s difficult to imagine any of them becoming players you immediately insert into your starting lineup. Of course, Chuba Hubbard is still in play (at least until Jonathon Brooks returns and we see how that plays out) but the offense ranks 31st in EPA per play. This is true even when Andy Dalton was under center. It’s possible with their season slipping away from them and Johnson no longer on the team that the Panthers could choose to turn back to Bryce Young just to see what they have in him. Rookies Xavier Legette and Jalen Coker could soak up most of the volume left behind by Johnson’s departure, so they are names to be aware of as speculative adds. But they have done very little against defenses focusing on Johnson and stopping the run. It’s hard to imagine them breaking out now that they are the primary focus of the opponents’ pass defense. Coker may be the most intriguing player in redraft, especially if the team does make the switch back to Young. This past week, Coker received six targets from Young, catching four for 78 yards and a touchdown. This was good enough to make him a top 12 wide receiver. He is also great at recognizing zone coverage and has taken 70.5% of his snaps from the slot this season. If Young is the quarterback, the slot receiver is likely to be the most valuable pass catcher as the coaching staff tries to get the ball out of his hands quickly to limit his mistakes. Perhaps Adam Thielen returns and automatically takes over the WR1 role in the offense. But he’s 34 years old and hasn’t played since Week 3, so I wouldn’t hold my breath. The biggest winner from this move on the Carolina side is probably Hubbard (or Brooks if he takes over lead duties.) With very little passing game I could see the Panthers moving to a run-first game plan and giving their lead back 20+ opportunities each game. Regardless, Hubbard is the only player currently worth a starting spot. Brooks, Coker, and Legette are all worth speculative adds, in that order, with Brooks having the most upside of the three.
Conclusion
This is a much better trade for real football (if you’re a Ravens fan) than for fantasy. It will be hard to know what you’ll get every week from any of the pass catchers involved. Lamar Jackson, Derrick Henry, and Chuba Hubbard should not see their value impacted much, so if you have them then you should be safe. But if you have anybody else, you can either try to move on from them by trading Johnson or Flowers to the Jackson owner, but don’t sell them too low, or you can just wait and see how it all plays out and hope that my initial reaction is wrong.
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