Building the ideal DFS DraftKings Lineup for Super Bowl 58
Super Bowl DFS is unique compared to the week-by-week competitions. Instead of picking by positions, you simply pick 6 players to ride with, and anoint one of them your "Captain" which multiplies their point output by 1.5X but also increases their cost by 1.5X. Additionally, the prices on most of the players are higher than the regular season, forcing you into some difficult decisions on who to include and what players you have to go without.
Lineup Strategy
These articles usually start with a captain's choice, but I wanted to start with my thoughts on a game script. Your best shot in these one-game DFS competitions is to try to nail the game script and load up on players who follow it. Trying to meet in the middle with the best players overall usually doesn't pan out as most games don't support it. For me, I like the Chiefs in this game.
Both defenses have been excellent so I'm not anticipating a back-and-forth affair, but I think Kansas City has the better offensive matchups both through the air and on the ground. Specifically, the Chiefs' pass defense has been incredible, so I'm fading the majority of the 49ers passing game. Additionally, the Chiefs have recommitted to the run with Mahomes still seeing production, so I like Pacheco on the ground as well. Given this script, I've assembled the team below.
Captain Choice: Patrick Mahomes
Given what I have outlined above, I'm rolling with Patrick Mahomes as my captain choice. Most importantly because he has the best chance to end up with the most fantasy points by the end of the game, but also because the 1.5X multiplier on Christian McCaffrey's flex value creates major issues for the rest of the lineup. The 49ers' fantasy points allowed against QBs are excellent, but it's built on not allowing touchdowns. I'm trusting Mahomes to reverse that trend.
Rest of Lineup
Christian McCaffrey
Even in a positive Kansas City game script, Christian McCaffrey feels like a must in all lineups. He's the focal point of the 49ers offense and a near guarantee for a touchdown. The differential of going without McCaffrey is too great, especially considering his upside.
Travis Kelce
Also a must in a positive KC gamescript and Mahomes captain is Travis Kelce. After a disappointing regular season by his lofty standards, Kelce has been dominant in the postseason collecting 23 catches and three touchdowns. The 49ers defense was just roasted by Sam Laporta, so Kelce looks like a good bet to get in the end zone again.
Isaiah Pacheco
After selecting the above top 3 and the significant outlay of cash that it takes to get them (about 76% of your salary,) I had to be very intentional about my final three selections. As mentioned, I think Pacheco will be in line for a lot of work. He's now seen 15 carries or more in 8 of his last 9 games and the 49ers rush defense is just OK and wholly dependent on their linebackers making insane play after insane play. His floor and ceiling are terrific at that price.
Kansas City Defense
At this point, we are bargain hunting and punting on the last spot, which given the upside I've assembled with my first four choices, I am OK with. Again, it makes sense to pull in the Kansas City Defense with this game script. They've cleared 6 points in 7 of their last 8 games and get Willie Gay back for run support. I'm not a full believer in Purdy and think there are sacks and turnovers to be had.
Richie James Jr.
And with the final selection, it's more or less a punt, but I'm taking the best under $500 player in Richie James Jr. Any bonus points from him will be a value add.
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