The Quarterback position, like the Tight End position, always seems to be an all-or-nothing type of draft pick. Either you are grabbing the top guys super early, or you are waiting for later rounds to grab a potential top five guy.
Now when we say “bust”, we don’t necessarily mean they will ruin your season. A bust in this sense is a player who doesn’t live up to their ADP…especially when you have to spend a lot of draft capital and they don’t live up to your expectations.
There were a lot of big changes to some of the top offenses this season, so there is a lot of uncertainty going into the 2022 season that could lead to a few surprising busts. Let’s take a look at three Quarterbacks that may not live up to their ADP this season.
ADPs come from our 12-team PPR ADP .
Patrick Mahomes – Kansas City Chiefs
So I’m not necessarily saying that Patrick Mahomes will be bad this year, but we have to be honest with ourselves that this offense will be very different without star Wide Receiver Tyreek Hill. Hill was targeted 159 times last season. The next closest Wide Receiver? Mecole Hardman with 83 targets. That is a ton of production lost.
Now of course the Chiefs did add Marquez Valdes-Scantling and JuJu Smith-Schuster, but those two pale in comparison to Hill’s playmaking abilities. Mahomes is currently the second Quarterback off the board and is going at 3.05 ADP. With so many other Quarterbacks available in the fifth round or later, nabbing Mahomes this early might be a mistake if he doesn’t live up to his ADP. Tom Brady, for instance, outscored Mahomes in 2021 and is currently going at 9.10.
I’ve always been a proponent of waiting to draft a Quarterback till later, unless you want the absolute top player at the position. I think Mahomes still is a top five Quarterback this season, but you could wait and find more value in a later-round QB.
Kyler Murray – Arizona Cardinals
Kyler Murray was one of the most hyped Quarterbacks going into the 2021 season, thanks to the addition of Wide Receiver DeAndre Hopkins and his rushing stats from 2020. He was being drafted as the QB3, but finished as the QB10 in a relatively disappointing season. And that was with 423 rushing yards and 5 touchdowns.
This year Murray is currently the sixth Quarterback off the board and is going at the 5.08 spot. He is being drafted before the likes of Aaron Rodgers, Jalen Hurts (who got AJ Brown and rushed for 800 yards last season), Dak Prescott, and Russell Wilson. Murray also will be without Hopkins for the first six games (suspension) and lost Christian Kirk to free agency. Newly added Marquise Brown will lead the Wide Receivers until Hopkins returns.
All that said, Murray has a lot to prove still and has yet to throw for more than 3900 yards and 26 touchdowns in a season. He has to make up for the lack of passing stats with his running abilities, which was down last season and may be closer to what we will see moving forward. The Cardinals also don’t have the best offensive line, so Murray might not be able to repeat his 2020 season when he rushed for 819 yards and 11 touchdowns. Overall Murray needs a lot of rushing stats to get himself into the top five Quarterbacks, and I just don’t think he will live up to a QB6 ADP this season.
Derek Carr – Las Vegas Raiders
Derek Carr is currently the 16 th Quarterback off the board and is going in round 10, so it may seem odd to have him as a bust. Now it’s still pretty early in the summer, so I expect his ADP starts to creep up as we go through camps and get closer to the regular season. Carr got arguably the best Wide Receiver in the NFL with Davante Adams coming over in a trade this offseason, so it’s not crazy to think his value will skyrocket at some point.
Carr has never really been a great fantasy Quarterback, mostly because his touchdown total averages around 24 and he throws about 10 interceptions per season. He doesn’t run often, so really you have to rely on those passing touchdowns to make him a fantasy relevant Quarterback.
Now Adams does bring a ton of talent to that offense, but he will only be as good as Carr is (Carr is no Aaron Rodgers). For now Carr may be priced about right at QB16, but I included him here because the Adams addition may hype him up to a top 12 Quarterback come September.
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