Rookie Buyers Beware
Plenty of rookie players will be available to choose from as we prepare to enter redraft season. But not all selections will be good ones. A fantasy tip I always advise when new fantasy football players want to target rookies in redraft leagues is to pay close attention to their landing spots. This one little nugget is easy to overlook when picking players wisely. Their landing spots can greatly impact their immediate fantasy value for several reasons such as veteran players ahead of them, changes to the offensive scheme, quarterback changes, and things like these. As for this season's crop of rookies, there are several rookies that fantasy managers may have "jumped the gun" on hoping to hit before the 2024 NFL draft but are likely shaking their heads now that the dust has settled.
Malik Nabers, WR - New York Giants
This one may not go over well with the masses, but Malik Nabers is at the top of my list. Despite his immense talent, Nabers being drafted by the New York Giants rubs me the wrong way. Daniel Jones remains the quarterback at the top of the depth chart, and that's the biggest eyesore for Nabers' potential.
While there is a target share pool that Nabers can tap into as the undisputed WR1, the Giants offense looks to take a step back this season. No Saquon Barkley as he went to the Philadelphia Eagles, a suspect offensive line that allowed the most sacks to the quarterback (85 in 2023), and other questions at multiple positions on the offense, as well as Daniel Jones's inability to be consistent with his deep ball. Nabers was a hot name during the offseason but this one might come back to haunt fantasy managers this season.
Jalen McMillan, WR - Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Another case of a poor landing spot for immediate fantasy output in a rookie season. The Bucs are loaded at wide receiver with Mike Evans and Chris Godwin at the WR1 and WR2 spot plus Trey Palmer being solid last season as the third wide receiver option. Baker Mayfield hasn't shown the ability to support three wide receivers for fantasy anyway, much less two for that matter (Chris Godwin finished as the WR28 avg. 12.3 FPPG) so hoping McMillan would be able to get on as the third or fourth option because there's still Cade Otton and Rachaad White to contend with for targets, wasn't the move. Outside of a major injury freeing up a spot ahead of McMillan, he's not an answer for fantasy managers who gambled on him.
Jonathan Brooks, RB - Carolina Panthers
Yeah, I had to get this guy on the list. Jonathan Brooks was the first running back to come off draft boards during the 2024 NFL draft, and it makes sense that fantasy managers would want to add him to their teams. Miles Sanders could be a potential cut candidate this offseason after an abysmal first year with the Panthers which will drive Brooks' stock up. However, Brooks' ACL injury is slowing him up, forcing the club to put the rookie on the PUP list at the start of training camp. The Panthers are a work in progress; they were last in the league last season, and I could see Brooks getting eased into the offense later in the season.
Latest reports are circulating that the Panthers may not wish to rush the young running back to the lineups. Undoubtedly, Brooks is talented, but his time might have to come later in the season. I could see the
Ricky Pearsall, WR - San Francisco 49ers
Pearsall looks like a possible investment for the future but remember, this is about Redraft formats. Simply put, the 49ers are too loaded with pass catchers where Pearsall could come in during his rookie season and be effective. Even with Brandon Aiyuk having contract issues (even though he is reporting to camp in the final year of his deal), you still have Deebo Samuels, George Kittle, and Christian McCaffrey on the roster that demand target attention. Even Juan Jennings saw 33 targets last season as the third receiver option. There are just too many bodies in front of Pearsall right now. Maybe that will change next offseason, but he'll have to wait his turn.
Braelon Allen, RB - New York Jets
If you took this guy pre-NFL draft, this should feel like a kick in the gonads. The Wisconsin running back was selected by the New York Jets in the fourth round. The reason they gave was to help punch in more touchdowns on the ground after Breece Hall struggled behind one of the worst run-blocking offensive lines last season. But they made adjustments during the offseason to bolster the line, even adding offensive tackle Olu Fashanu in the first round. Breece Hall needed more help up front, not another running mate to try and take goal-line work off his plate.
On top of that, Hall is an every-down back and a workhorse for the Jets offense. Allen will likely see some reps on the field but the hope was that Allen was going to land with a team that would need a starting-level running back. The Jets dashed those dreams.
Brock Bowers, TE - Las Vegas Raiders
Bowers falls in the same boat as Malik Nabers mentioned above. An extremely talented player landing on a team that is in flux on offense. Gardner Minshew and Aidan O'Connell are battling it out for the top quarterback spot. Still, neither are good options for the kind of fantasy production managers are looking for in Bowers during his rookie season. Recent reports have Bowers having to earn his reps on the field by improving his blocking to get over second-year tight end Michael Mayer too. Bowers must also contend with getting targets from Davante Adams and Jakobi Meyers. Last season both receivers had 20%+ target shares with Mayer seeing just nine percent during his rookie campaign. Bowers is up against it in an offense with limited passing and targets with not much scoring upside as the Raiders were the 23rd ranked scoring offense in 2023.
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