Top Wide Receiver Busts for 2022
A few weeks ago we looked at four Running Backs to Avoid for 2022 , but this week we will be diving into some Wide Receivers who may not return value this season. The great thing about the Wide Receiver position is that it is so deep that you should be able to make up for a bust with a good waiver wire pickup.
Wide Receiver busts are a tad bit harder to see than Running Back busts, but there are some things to look out for when drafting these players. The biggest question is: Did they switch teams? Veteran Wide Receivers who switch teams often see a decline in fantasy points the first season after switching teams. Next, you have to ask if the offensive game plan or Quarterback changed and how that will affect your Wide Receiver. And lastly, you always have to think about injury history and the potential for them to miss time.
In this article, we will be looking at some of the 2022 Wide Receivers who have a higher potential to disappoint fantasy players. I took ADPs based on 12-team half-PPR drafts .
You can also find our rankings here . Statistics come from FantasyData.
Let’s dive into the top four Wide Receiver busts for the upcoming season.
Tyreek Hill – Miami Dolphins (ADP: 2.11, WR7)
There is no doubt in my mind that Tyreek Hill is one of the most electric players in the NFL, but moving to a new team with a new Quarterback makes me feel very uneasy about drafting him this season.
Hill departed a pass-happy Kansas City and Patrick Mahomes this offseason and decided to go to a Tua Tagovailoa-led Dolphins team instead. Hill has been targeted over 100 times in four of his six seasons with the Chiefs, and Mahomes attempted at least 484 passes in each of the last four seasons. He threw the ball 658 times in 2021!
On the other hand, Tagovailoa averaged 340 passes per season and has thrown for only 27 touchdowns in his two years in the NFL. He is nowhere near the Quarterback Mahomes is and has missed time with injuries. He also has built up a rapport with Jaylen Waddle, who was targeted 141 times in 2021. Tua may not be keen on switching his top target, who is more of a deep threat vs Waddle’s short route, tons of catches type of receiver.
Long story short, Hill has a lot going against him in terms of returning his ADP value this year. He is on a new team for the first time in his career, he has a much worse Quarterback and is on a worse offense. All these things are making me pause on drafting Hill this season, and he could easily finish outside of the Top 12 Wide Receivers.
Michael Thomas – New Orleans Saints (ADP: 4.11, WR19)
We haven’t seen Michael Thomas on the field in almost two years now, yet he is garnering a lot of hype this offseason…and for good reason. Thomas has always been an electric fantasy player who was absolutely peppered with targets when on the field.
But a lot has changed since he last saw the field, and that is a scary thought when seeing his name creep up draft boards. He has gotten some “he looks like the same old Michael Thomas” from beat reporters, but training camp is a lot different from actual gameplay.
Thomas has been ailing from an ankle injury he suffered in 2020, and news just broke that he is now dealing with a hamstring issue. He is almost 30 years old and may need some time to get back into game shape.
Thomas has also lost one of the most accurate NFL Quarterbacks in history with Drew Brees retiring and lost his Head Coach Sean Payton to retirement as well. Thomas will be returning with a completely new offensive gameplan and Jameis Winston, who isn’t known for his accuracy.
Thomas is a high-risk, high-reward player to draft in 2022, but I think I’ll be passing on him at this ADP for some less-risky receivers.
Davante Adams – Las Vegas Raiders (ADP: 2.02, WR4)
So let me be clear that Davante Adams is another Wide Receiver who will be just fine for fantasy, but I believe won’t return the value he is currently being drafted at. Adams is another veteran receiver who is finding himself on a new team for the first time in his career.
There is no doubt that Adams was the primary target in Green Bay. He had a 31.6% target share (2 nd in the NFL) in the offense, as well as a whopping 49.3% (1 st in the NFL) target share when just looking at the Wide Receivers.
Adams is now in a new offensive system, with a new/different Quarterback (Carr is no Aaron Rodgers, let’s be real), and has Wide Receiver Hunter Renfrow and Tight End Darren Waller to fight for targets with. Derek Carr is not a big-time passer, averaging 24 touchdowns a season in his eight-year career with the Raiders. Adams’ career best is 18 touchdowns in 2020, so he is in for a big touchdown regression with the Raiders.
Now again I don’t think Adams will destroy your team, but I don’t think he is primed for a top-five Wide Receiver finish either. I will probably be passing on Adams this year.
A.J. Brown – Philadelphia Eagles (ADP: 3.03, WR10)
A.J. Brown was a surprise trade this offseason, moving on from the Titans after a bit of a disappointing season in 2021. He now gets Jalen Hurts and the Philadelphia Eagle offense, which hasn’t necessarily been a top offense in recent years.
Last season Hurts threw the ball 432 times, completing 265 (61% completion) for only 3144 yards, 16 touchdowns, and 9 interceptions. Now the jury is still out for Hurts since this will really be his second season starting for the Eagles. He has also been garnering some hype in the fantasy world this offseason, but that can mostly be attributed to his running abilities. Hurts is a scrambling Quarterback who rushed for over 700 yards and 10 touchdowns last season.
Upcoming Wide Receiver DeVonta Smith and Tight End Dallas Goedert will be pushing for targets, and there are not many to go around if the Eagles keep their current gameplan. Something just doesn’t feel right about this whole Brown situation, and I don’t think he finishes as a top 12 Wide Receiver this season.
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