Week 10 MNF DFS Showdown in LA
Another week down, another week closer to the end of the season. Most football fans are sad about that statement, but as a Colts fan, I am accepting the end of this embarrassing season. I’m sure that Cowboys, Bears, Giants, and Jets fans feel similar after this week. All these teams had embarrassing performances yesterday and took major hits to any sliver of playoff hopes remaining. Some teams continue to provide fireworks, including the Lions who held the Texans scoreless in the second half to come back and win, moving to 8-1 on the season. Enough talking about yesterday, let's shift our focus to the MNF showdown, where the Dolphins travel cross country to take on the Rams in California.
As we always do, let's dive into the visiting team first. Outside of Tyreek Hill, there is a lot of nothing on the injury report for the Dolphins. Hill continues to battle a wrist injury that occurred in training camp and has bothered him throughout the season. He reportedly re-aggravated the injury this week, causing him to miss practice on Friday and Saturday. Hill did travel with the team, but he will be a game-time decision tonight. On the season so far, Miami has run the ball on 47.2% of offensive plays. Honestly, I expected this number to be skewed more towards the run game given the QB carousel we have seen in Miami. Since returning from his concussion 2 weeks ago, Tua has attempted 66 passes, completing 53 of them for 465 yards. At only 8.7 yards per completion, are we seeing the state of the Dolphins' offense post severe concussion? If not, and Hill is healthy, this matchup presents an opportunity for this reeling Dolphins offense to get back on the right track.
Shifting our focus to the home side, let's take a quick dive into the Rams. Slowly getting healthy, the Rams sit in a tight division race which means every game counts. Offensive line injuries continue to burden the Rams as the starting RG is questionable, while the starting RT has already been ruled out. In terms of offensive role players, the only notable injury to follow would be Tyler Higbee, but he has already been ruled out for this game despite being marked to return from the PUP. With this unremarkable injury list, it should be all systems go for this Rams offense that can put up points in a hurry. Despite success on the ground this season with Kyren Williams, the Rams only run the ball on 41.3% of offensive plays. Stafford has gotten his two favorite targets back, with both Kupp and Nacua returning to play over the past few weeks. Look for the Rams to continue building offensive momentum in this game against a Dolphins defense that has given up 58 points over the last two games.
Let’s take all the injuries and stats we talked about above and see if we can leverage them into some winning moves. Below are a few of my favorite DFS plays on this MNF Showdown.
Captain (1.5x Multiplier)
$16.2K - Kyren Williams (LAR, RB)
It’s hard to ignore Kyren Williams at his high usage rate. For reference, Williams has seen 21+ touches in every game this season except the week 2 loss, a game the Rams lost 41-10. I expect the high-usage game script to continue for Williams as I don’t see a way in which the Dolphins can blowout the Rams in this game. Facing a team that ranks 24th in overall run defense, the Dolphins are giving up 120 rush yards per game. I plan to play a lot of Williams in my lineups, both at the Captain spot and in the flex.
$15.0K - Tyreek Hill (MIA, WR)
Big risk big reward going to Hill at the captain spot. He isn’t cheap and is listed as questionable heading into this game. We have seen it time and time again this season where the Rams pass defense gets exposed throughout the game. Last week, they allowed 363 yards and three touchdowns (along with 3 INTs) to Geno Smith. If healthy, we know that Hill will be one of the main targets for Tua in this game. This is a passing game that is relatively condensed, and I expect them to try and force Hill the ball to get this offense out of the mud.
$13.5K - Puka Nacua (LAR, WR)
It would not surprise me in the slightest if the Dolphins try to clamp down on Cooper Kupp in this game. Unfortunately for them, Nacua doesn’t carry an injury designation, and he did not get suspended for throwing a punch last game. It's fair to say he got extra rest on top of the extra day off teams get for MNF. In another offense where target share tends to be condensed, Nacua should see plenty of targets from Stafford. In his one full game this season Nacua saw 9 targets, which he turned into 7 catches for 106 yards. I love playing both him and Kupp tonight, but he is my favorite play at captain.
Flex
$9.8K - Cooper Kupp (LAR, WR)
I already talked about how I love the top 2 Rams receivers in this game. Kupp, when healthy, commands a large number of targets even when playing with Nacua. I expect this game to be high scoring and I expect Stafford to find success throwing against this beatable secondary. For those two things to occur, Kupp more than less likely has to have a great game. The only reason he is here is because I think the defense schemes a bit heavier to take him out of the game compared to Nacua.
$9.4K - De’Von Achane (MIA, RB)
With the wrist injury to Hill, Achane becomes the most explosive player on this Dolphins team when healthy. Achane carries no injury designation into this game and he has seen 15+ touches in each game since the bye week. While the Rams' run defense is better than we expected this season, it's not what it once was with Aaron Darnold. Achane is one of my favorite Dolphins on the slate and easily becomes my favorite Dolphin if Hill is ruled out. Just like with Hill, I expect them to manufacture ways to get him touches.
$8.6K - Matt Stafford (LAR, QB)
If two of my overall favorite plays on this slate are WRs for the Rams, then that likely means Stafford ends up on a winning roster as well. There is an off chance that Stafford spreads the ball around and then Kyren Williams steals all the touchdowns with goal-line carries, but that's not what I am building for with Stafford. Rams-heavy lineups that have both Nacua and Kupp in them should have Stafford present as well. It will be a common build so find safe plays to use and get different within your Flex.
$4.4K - Jonnu Smith (MIA, TE)
I feel like Jonnu Smith has been playing in the NFL forever but he’s somehow only 29 years old. He has also arguably been one of the most reliable targets on this Dolphins team. Converting 75% of his targets into catches this season Smith has seen 6+ targets in each of the last 4 Miami games and in 5 of 8 games this season. I plan on taking advantage of his established target share tonight and wouldn’t be surprised to see it rise even higher if Hill misses this game. If Hill does miss the game, Smith might even find his way into a captain spot on at least one of my teams.
$3.0K - Jaylen Wright (MIA, RB)
Looking down the board, there isn’t too much in the way of expected value in this game. Both offenses are relatively condensed at the top and barring injury, I don’t expect that to change. If this game gets out of hand and the Dolphins are down a bunch, Jaylen Wright could be one of the biggest beneficiaries. In the short time we have seen Wright, he’s been promising averaging almost 5 yards per carry. I’m finding it hard to like anyone below this price point but if given the opportunity, Wright could break this slate.
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