MNF Showdown: A Battle for Texas
It took 10 games, but the Kansas City Chiefs finally lost. There are no longer any undefeated teams in the NFL. In other news from around the league, Detroit continues to roll, putting up 52 points on the Jaguars. Also, has anyone checked in on the NFC West recently? Arizona was on a bye this week, so they captured sole possession of first place at 6-4. Behind them, it’s a three-way tie, with all teams sitting at 5-5. Enough about the rest of the league—let’s shift our focus to the battle for Texas on Monday Night Football. At roughly 240 miles apart, the Texans will travel up to Dallas to take on the Cowboys in a primetime showdown.
As always, we start by looking at the visiting Houston Texans. From an injury perspective, the biggest question over the last two weeks has been the health of Nico Collins. As of now, he appears to have shed his injury designation after practicing in full on Friday. With Collins back to full health, there are no other notable offensive injuries to monitor heading into the game. For a team that runs the ball relatively consistently on first down, the Texans still only run the ball on 42.8% of plays overall. With a healthy Nico Collins, perhaps they’ll be able to move the ball more effectively through the air. In this game, I fully expect the Texans to take control—it’s just a matter of how they’ll do it. Defensively, the Texans are strong against the run, ranking 6th in the NFL. While they’re ranked 22nd against the pass, they have no issues blitzing and wreaking havoc on opposing offenses.
Now, let’s move on to the mess that is the Dallas Cowboys. Injuries are a significant concern for this team. Dak Prescott is out for the rest of the season following surgery on a partially avulsed hamstring. Other injuries include CeeDee Lamb, who is questionable with a back injury sustained earlier this week, though he is expected to play. Brandin Cooks remains on IR, leaving the Cowboys with Jalen Tolbert and Jalen Brooks backing up Lamb at wide receiver. Heading into this week, the Cowboys run the ball the least in the NFL, doing so on only 34.2% of their plays. This shouldn’t come as a surprise, considering their top two running backs are Rico Dowdle and Ezekiel Elliott. The passing game isn’t much better, as Cooper Rush will continue as the team’s starting quarterback. Defensively, the Cowboys rank 29th in the NFL against the run and slightly better against the pass, where they rank 18th. It will be interesting to see how Dallas tries to avoid being embarrassed at home on primetime television.
Using what we know about these teams, let’s break down the best plays for both the Captain and flex spots on DraftKings.
Captain (1.5x Multiplier)
$16.5K - Joe Mixon (HOU, RB)
This season, Mixon has five games with over 100 rushing yards, and he also has 24 or more rushes in five games. A high ankle sprain took him out of the Week 2 game early, which is the only game in which he doesn’t have a touchdown. Needless to say, Mixon has been one of the best backs in the NFL this season and should continue to produce this week against Dallas. Facing one of the league's worst run defenses, Mixon appears primed for a big night, making him likely to be highly owned in the captain spot.
$15.6K - Nico Collins (HOU, WR)
Finally back for the Texans, Nico Collins returns after being sidelined with a hamstring injury since Week 5. Before the injury, Collins was averaging over 100 yards per game while coexisting with Stefon Diggs. With Diggs out for the rest of the season, Collins is poised to reclaim the WR1 role in this offense. The team should see improved efficiency now that Stroud’s favorite target is back in the lineup. Fully healthy, Collins is expected to hit the ground running against this struggling Cowboys team.
$13.5K - Rico Dowdle (DAL, RB)
Rico Dowdle is my favorite Cowboy to slot into the captain spot. Honestly, I don’t plan on using many Dallas players in the captain role this week. This team is a mess, struggling to move the ball effectively. With Cooper Rush at quarterback, I believe Dowdle has the best chance to succeed by catching plenty of dump-offs. This seems like his clearest path to production. That said, I’m generally avoiding Dallas players in the captain spot for this matchup.
Flex
$10.8K - CeeDee Lamb (DAL, WR)
At this point in the season, it’s hard to ignore CeeDee Lamb in DFS lineups. While he won’t be a core fixture for my lineups, I still want exposure to one of the best wide receivers in the NFL. In each of the last four Cowboys games, Lamb has seen at least 10 targets, and I don’t expect that trend to change. If the Cowboys want to stay competitive and have any chance of winning, Lamb will need to play a significant role. The bottom line is they’re determined to get him the ball. However, his captain salary is too steep given the current situation, so my exposure will come from using him in the flex spot.
$9.4K - Tank Dell (HOU, WR)
Someone will need to step up and fill the WR2 role on this team, and Tank Dell is the obvious choice. A player who was poised to take on this role last season before his injury, Dell is already accustomed to seeing plenty of targets. I expect the Cowboys to focus on limiting Collins and Mixon, and if they succeed, Dell is the most likely beneficiary. He’ll find his way into my lineups when I pivot away from Collins.
$6.2K - Texans DST
The Texans’ defense comes with a high price on this showdown slate, but no smart player can ignore them. I don’t see Dallas scoring many points, and the Texans are likely to force at least one turnover in this game. In their last outing, the Cowboys turned the ball over five times, scored fewer than 10 points, and managed only 146 total yards of offense. I’ll have plenty of exposure to the Texans DST on this slate.
$5.2K - Brandon Aubrey (DAL, K)
This Texans defense is beatable—we’ve seen it at times throughout the season. The problem is, I don’t see how this Dallas team can actually get into the end zone. I expect them to move the ball past the 50-yard line a few times but ultimately stall out. Brandon Aubrey, who is 22 of 24 on the season, has the ability to hit 50-yard field goals with ease. Given the state of the Cowboys' offense, I’m hesitant to roster many of their players, but Aubrey provides a solid way to get exposure to this Dallas team.
$4.0K - John Metchie (HOU, WR)
John Metchie currently sits as the likely WR3 on this team as he continues to build trust with C.J. Stroud. With six targets last week against Detroit, Metchie saw his highest target share of the season. I expect his production to dip slightly with Nico Collins returning, but Metchie has the potential to push Tank Dell for the WR2 role if Dell continues to underperform. Priced at $4.0K, Metchie is the most affordable player likely to see a meaningful workload.
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