When the Saints Go Marching Into MNF
It took us five Sundays of NFL football to finally get a truly exciting day. Three early-slate games ended with walk-off field goals, four teams scored 35+ points, and another two teams scored 34. This is the NFL Sunday we’ve all been waiting for. I’m writing this as the afternoon games are still being played, so there’s potential for even more excitement. But for now, let's focus on one thing: Monday Night Football. This week, we head out to Kansas City as the Chiefs take on the Saints.
First, let’s look at the New Orleans Saints’ injury report. Most of the Saints' skill position players are relatively healthy, except for Taysom Hill, who has already been ruled out due to a rib injury sustained last week. However, the bigger concern is along the offensive line, where the Saints will be without three starters: LG Lucas Patrick, C Shane Lemieux, and RG Cesar Ruiz. Offensively, the Saints are the least pass-heavy team in the NFL, throwing on just 43.2% of plays. Instead, they lean heavily on the run, with a rushing rate of 56.8%. Defensively, New Orleans has been solid, ranking in the top 15 for fantasy points allowed to quarterbacks, running backs, and wide receivers.
On the other side, the Chiefs continue to see key playmakers go down with injuries. Isiah Pacheco remains out with a fractured fibula, and Rashee Rice is sidelined indefinitely due to an unspecified knee injury. They join Hollywood Brown and Clyde Edwards-Helaire, who haven’t played a single snap this regular season. Mecole Hardman is listed as questionable, but a full practice on Saturday increases his chances of playing. Despite the injuries and Patrick Mahomes’ subpar performance (by his standards), the Chiefs still pass on 53.6% of their offensive plays. Backup running backs Samaje Perine, Carson Steele, and Kareem Hunt are making the most of the 46.4% of snaps dedicated to rushing plays. Defensively, the Chiefs have been tough on running backs, allowing the fewest fantasy points to the position this season. They also rank 11th and 18th in points allowed to quarterbacks and wide receivers, respectively.
With all that said, let’s see if we can leverage these stats to find an edge in DFS plays!
Captain (1.5x Multiplier)
$15.0K - Chris Olave (NO, WR)
Chris Olave has been underwhelming through four weeks this season, failing to eclipse 90 yards and scoring only one touchdown. What I like about Olave is the volume he’s seen since Week 1, as he’s averaged just over seven targets per game. That kind of volume, in a game I expect to be low-scoring, could be enough to make him an optimal play. For this pick to succeed, Olave will likely need a touchdown or 100+ yards, both of which are possible on at least seven targets.
$13.5K - Xavier Worthy (KC, WR)
If I had to guess, Worthy will be the first or second most popular captain pick on the Chiefs’ side. Before Rashee Rice’s injury, Andy Reid was finding ways to get Worthy involved. Through the first three weeks, he had at least one rush attempt and three or more targets. Last week was the first time he didn’t have a rushing attempt, but he still turned four targets into three catches and a touchdown. Now, without Rice in the lineup, someone needs to step up. With his speed, Worthy makes the most sense to fill that role. I’ll look for other ways to differentiate my lineups with flex plays.
$12.9K - Travis Kelce (KC, TE)
This is a great spot for Kelce to return to fantasy relevance. Before last week, Kelce had just eight catches for 69 yards and no touchdowns. Last week, he saw nine targets, resulting in seven catches for 89 yards. Throughout his career, when Mahomes needs a reliable option, he turns to Kelce. With his top wide receiver target now out, Kelce seems like the most likely beneficiary of additional targets. If that holds, being priced at only $12.9K for the captain spot would make him one of the best values we’ve seen on showdown slates this season.
Flex
$11.0K - Patrick Mahomes (KC, QB)
I rarely use Mahomes on main slates, and this season has been no exception. He’s only thrown for over 250 yards once this season and has thrown at least one interception in every game. If this were a regular fantasy league and his name wasn’t Mahomes, he might have been benched or dropped by now. However, this is DFS, not regular fantasy. Given what Mahomes is capable of on any given night, he’s still a strong play in showdown formats. I’ll especially look to stack him in lineups that use one of the Chiefs’ pass catchers in the captain spot. If Mahomes has a vintage performance, you just have to hope your captain was on the receiving end.
$9.6K - Derek Carr (NO, QB)
Carr is more of a flier, but he can be viable in a few game scripts. If you look at my plays, you’ll notice there’s no Kamara, and that’s because I don’t think the Saints will be able to run the ball effectively. Being down three starting linemen against one of the best rush defenses in the NFL is not a recipe for success on the ground. This scenario forces Derek Carr to step up if the Saints want to win. The most likely game script is that the Chiefs will find ways to score, leaving Carr to make plays to keep the Saints in the game or try to play catch-up. Either way, Carr should be in the flex position for lineups featuring Olave or even Kamara at captain.
$8.0K - Rashid Shaheed (NO, WR)
This is a simple play that doesn’t require too much of a breakdown. In the three games where he’s recorded a catch, Shaheed has averaged over 80 yards per game. This season, we’ve seen him heavily involved in game scripts that are close or tied. I don’t see this game becoming a blowout win for the Saints, which means plenty of opportunities for Shaheed.
$4.0K - Chiefs DST
Of the plays available between DSTs and kickers, this will likely be the second or third option for most people. I expect both kickers to be more popular than either DST, and I like the Chiefs’ defense more than the Saints’ in this matchup. Missing three starting offensive linemen makes the Saints’ line vulnerable and primed for disruption. I expect the Chiefs to create a lot of chaos, leading to higher chances for turnovers and possible defensive touchdowns.
$3.4K - Justin Watson (KC, WR)
Another week, another cheap bonus pick I decided to throw out. Watson always seems to have at least one or two big catches in prime-time games for the Chiefs. With another playmaker down and against a deceptively solid defense, my Justin Watson radar is going off. I’m not expecting a massive game, but if he finds the end zone or makes his signature two big plays, he could easily land in the optimal lineup. There aren’t many feasible low-priced options, but Watson makes sense.
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