Best DFS Picks for Monday Night’s Doubleheader
We're nearly finished with Week 4 of the NFL season, and over the past four weeks, we've seen some trends start to take shape. Scoring is down across the league, and high-volume passing games seem to be a relic of previous years. Despite this, we have another MNF doubleheader coming up. I’ll break down key injuries and run-pass percentages for each offense to help you find an edge on Monday night.
Miami faces Tennessee in the first game of the doubleheader. The big news is Tua being on IR, with backup Skylar Thompson also questionable. Head Coach Mike McDaniel has confirmed that Tyler Huntley will start at quarterback. There are no other notable offensive injuries for Miami. So far, the Dolphins have passed on 60.7% of their plays and run on 39.3%. This may shift slightly towards the run with their current QB situation. Tennessee, on the other hand, passes 62.6% of the time and runs on 37.4%. The game script here could heavily favor the running backs given the uncertainty at QB for both teams.
The second game takes us to Ford Field, where the Lions host the Seahawks. This game is less affected by injuries. For Seattle, Kenneth Walker is expected to return after missing the last two weeks with an oblique injury, while the biggest absence for the Lions is center Frank Ragnow, still sidelined with a torn pectoral. Seattle has run a pass play on 59.7% of snaps and a run play on 40.3%. With Walker back, we might see a shift toward the run, though Detroit has allowed only 76 rushing yards per game. Detroit, meanwhile, passes 52.4% of the time and runs 47.4%. This game has a better chance of turning into a shootout.
With two games, DraftKings offers full-lineup contests. Below, I’ve highlighted my top plays at each position for these matchups!
Quarterback
$5.9K - Geno Smith, Seattle
Averaging 17.7 fantasy points per game, Smith is actually the highest-scoring QB among the four available. Detroit’s pass defense ranks in the bottom third of the league, which makes Smith an appealing option. However, his ability to gain yards with his legs makes him stand out. He’s my favorite QB on the slate, as Goff has been underwhelming from a fantasy perspective so far.
Running Back
$6.0K - Tony Pollard, Tennessee
Last week, Pollard only logged six carries but added three receptions on four targets. While these aren’t stellar numbers, he still led the backfield with nine of the team’s 15 running back touches. Tennessee’s early deficit of 10 points before the end of the first quarter made it difficult to establish the run. Miami’s 28th-ranked run defense was shredded by Zach Charbonnet last week and James Cook the week before, so Pollard should see quality touches in what projects to be a close game.
Wide Receiver
$6.8K - D.K. Metcalf, Seattle
Detroit doesn’t have anyone who can match up well against Metcalf. With 24 total targets through three weeks (averaging eight per game), he brings considerable upside. He’s also averaging 87 receiving yards per game and is $1.4K cheaper than Amon-Ra St. Brown. With strong run defenses on both sides, there could be a lot of passing, making Metcalf a strong play.
Tight End
$5.7K - Sam LaPorta, Detroit
It’s been a rough year for tight ends. It took an injury to Rashee Rice for Travis Kelce to finally have a breakout game. I’m not sure if LaPorta will explode here, but this pick is based purely on the upside. He’s the most expensive option but also the only tight end on the slate with a consistent target floor of 3-4 per game. I like him as a run-back option in lineups featuring Geno and Metcalf. It’s not the safest pick, but he’s more likely to boom than bust.
Flex
$6.9K - Jahmyr Gibbs, Detroit
This is a bonus pick, but Gibbs will be in most of my lineups. He’s logged 51 touches through three weeks, but the problem is his lack of touchdowns. I expect Detroit to prioritize getting him into open space in this matchup. When the Detroit offense was at its best last year, Gibbs was heavily involved in the open field. They need to get him going to jumpstart an offense that has struggled through the first three weeks.
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