Sleeper Mid-Round Wide Receivers (Half-PPR)
Once the initial five rounds of a fantasy football draft are in the books, the focus shifts towards unearthing value in the mid-rounds. This is where astute managers can gain a significant edge, bypassing the generic rankings provided by hosting platforms and relying on their analysis. Between rounds 6 and 10, hidden gems await, offering the potential to outperform their draft positions. I've compiled a list of six wide receivers currently undervalued in half-point PPR leagues, presenting an opportunity to secure a reliable WR2 or a potential steal as a WR3 or flex option.
Tyler Lockett, WR, Seahawks- ADP 65
Lockett had his fourth straight 1000-yard season and finished with the second-most receptions (84) of his career. The Seattle offense switched from their typical run-heavy approach and let Geno Smith cook in 2022, which benefited all Seahawks’ receivers. There’s no reason to believe they won’t do the same thing this season. Lockett will have more competition for targets, however, from first-round pick, Jaxon Smith-Njigba. I don’t see Lockett getting fewer than 100 targets and I don’t think another 1000-yard season is out of the question. Lockett has been a consistent WR2 the last five seasons. He might finally drop off to a high-end WR3, but even then, he’s going off draft boards a round later than he should be.
Mike Evans, WR, Buccaneers- ADP 69
Evans’ ADP is low because of the QB situation in Tampa Bay. Baker Mayfield is a downgrade from Tom Brady and, for fantasy purposes, Jameis Winston, too. Evans has been a fantasy star for so long, it’s hard to imagine him going in the late sixth round of fantasy drafts. He hasn’t finished outside the top 20 in WR fantasy points since 2016. And he’s never had a season with fewer than 1000 yards. Evans and Chris Godwin are the Bucs only two receiving threats, so even conservative estimates have Evans getting at least 100 targets. I have Evans projected for 164 fantasy points in half-point PPR leagues, which puts him as a high-end WR3 with a 5th round value. If you can draft him in the 6th round, you’re getting a pretty good discount for him.
Marquise Brown, WR, Cardinals- ADP 73
This one is a no-brainer to me. With Hopkins gone, Brown is the top receiving option in Arizona. He averaged over 18 points per game when Hopkins was suspended last season and had a 26% target share. With Kyler Murray’s timeline to return in question, Brown’s ADP hasn’t risen to where it should be yet. But if Murray can return in the first half of the season, then Brown becomes a screaming value as an early 7th round pick.
Brandin Cooks, WR, Cowboys- ADP 92
Cooks’ ADP is a result of an off year in Houston. It’s not the first time Cooks had a down season before being traded. In 2019 with the Rams, he only caught 42 passes for 583 yards, but he bounced back the next year with the Texans and had two 1000+ yards seasons. Cooks will be 30 this year, and he’ll be playing second fiddle to CeeDee Lamb, so we can’t expect the same kind of turnaround he had going from LA to Houston. But, it’s reasonable to expect 90-100 targets. If we apply his career averages to that, we can project low-end WR3 numbers with a bit of upside. For an 8th round pick, that’s not a bad haul.
Rashod Bateman, WR, Ravens-ADP 104
Bateman is currently being drafted near the end of the 9th round. At this point in the draft, I’m looking for players who offer high-upside. Bateman fits that bill precisely. The Ravens receiving corp is crowded with Odell Beckham and Zay Flowers competing for targets. Bateman could get lost in the shuffle and end up as the third receiver, but it’s just as likely he separates himself from the pack and becomes the first option in a revamped offense expected to pass more. Bateman was a 1st round pick and is entering his third year. Injuries have shortened his first two seasons, but he has shown flashes of brilliance. The range of outcomes for Bateman is wide, but worth the risk at his current ADP.
Michael Thomas, WR, Saints- ADP 113
Thomas has only played in 10 games since 2020, including three last season. He’s 30 years old and can’t seem to stay healthy. Nothing about him screams value. Unless you can get him in the 10th round. That’s a value, as far as I’m concerned. Thomas had four seasons as one of the game’s best receivers, and while that’s not likely to happen again, if he can stay on the field, we might see him catch 70-80 passes and be a solid WR3 for fantasy teams.
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