Draft Strategy: Finding TE Value
Throughout fantasy football history, the tight end position has created much frustration for managers. Every year, there are two or three elite players in the position who make a real weekly difference, while everyone else is either inconsistent or consistently mediocre. My how things have changed. This season, more so than in years past, there is a lot of high-upside value later in drafts at tight end, and even some of the elite options are getting pushed down draft boards while wide receivers and running backs continue to ascend. Let’s look at the state of the position heading into the season and the depth it provides after years of being a barren wasteland.
Tier 1
This tier belongs to Sam LaPorta and Travis Kelce. Kelce has consistently finished first or second in fantasy points per game at the position and LaPorta led the league in fantasy points for a tight end in 2023. But Kelce is 34 years old and his 14.6 fantasy points per game last season was his worst showing in eight seasons. He will also have stiffer competition for targets than last season with the additions of free agent signing Marquise Brown and first-round draft pick Xavier Worthy. Rashee Rice is also entering his second year after coming on strong to end his rookie campaign, and even if he does miss some time he will be a factor. With LaPorta, there’s always the chance of a sophomore slump and touchdown regression. But there is also ample room for improvement. So while his touchdowns may go down, his receptions, yardage, and efficiency could increase. Kelce and LaPorta have ADPs of #25 overall (#1 among tight ends) and #27 overall (#2 among tight ends) in PPR formats which puts them right at the start of Round 2. If you’re willing to pay that price these are the two to target.
Tier 2
This tier is where things get interesting. It consists of Mark Andrews, Trey McBride, Dalton Kincaid, and George Kittle. All four players are going 20-25 picks later than Kelce and LaPorta and at least two of them have the upside to finish as the overall TE1. Andrews and McBride are of particular interest to me. Andrews had a down season in 2023 due to injury, but when healthy, he is one of the premier pass-catchers at the position, a matchup nightmare, and the preferred target for Lamar Jackson. He should be in store for a bounce-back campaign. McBride is another player who should have every opportunity to produce. Other than rookie WR Marvin Harrison, Jr., there is no one to challenge McBride for targets which makes him, at worst, the No. 2 target for a now-healthy Kyler Murray. He will look to build off of a solid season in which he caught 81 passes for 825 yards and three touchdowns. George Kittle is a solid, consistent choice as someone who has ranked in the top six at the position in fantasy points per game each of the past five seasons. Perhaps the most intriguing name on this list with the widest range of outcomes is Kincaid. As a second-year player, you would expect improvement and after losing Stefon Diggs and Gabe Davis this offseason there should be plenty of targets to go around. But if the entire Bills offense takes a step back it would hurt all the pass-catchers. This is the earliest I would think about drafting a tight end.
Tier 3
This tier has just three names in it: Kyle Pitts (#67 overall, #7 TE,) Evan Engram (#74 overall, #8 TE,) and Jake Ferguson (, #9 TE.) Kyle Pitts is a confounding prospect. Coming out of college he was considered a generational talent who played the position more like a wide receiver than a tight end. Thus far, though, he has yet to put it all together. But Pitts is expected to have a larger role in the offense this season and will have a much better quarterback (Kirk Cousins) distributing the ball than he has had in the past. Jake Ferguson is another player who should have a much bigger role this season and enjoy less competition for targets. Plus, if star WR CeeDee Lamb and the Cowboys can’t get an extension done and he sits out, Ferguson could become the top target in this offense. Engram’s situation is similar to Kincaid’s. With Calvin Ridley gone, Lawrence is likely to lean on veterans he’s used to, like Engram and Christian Kirk. Engram did a lot of his damage last season when Kirk missed time so another season of 114 catches and nearly 1,000 yards may be too much to ask. But if his efficiency and touchdown totals go up (he had four last season) it may not matter. None of these three have the upside to finish in the top three but with a sixth-eighth round cost, they could be well worth the wait.
The Best of the Rest
Once you get beyond the eighth round there are still viable options who could enter the season with a safe floor, even if they lack the same upside. In fact, at this point three of the top 12 (David Njoku, Brock Bowers, and Dallas Goedert) are still available. Njoku and Goedert have finished as top 12 tight ends in two of the past three seasons. Bowers is the best tight end prospect we’ve seen in a long time but is on an offense that could limit him with poor quarterback play, a desire to run the ball, and competition for targets from Davante Adams, Jakobi Meyers, and fellow tight end Michael Mayer. Once you get outside of the top 12 there is still a lot of depth. T.J. Hockenson would normally be a top 5-7 guy, but after tearing his ACL and MCL late last season he is expected to miss the start of the season which has managers shying away. Dalton Schultz was effective in 2023 but now finds himself vying for targets with Stefon Diggs as well as Nico Collins, Tank Dell, and rookie fourth-round pick Cade Stover. The Bears have two solid tight ends in Cole Kmet and Gerald Everett, but the entire Bears’ offense should look different in 2024, and knowing who will produce from week to week could be difficult. Pat Freiermuth is one of my favorite late-round targets. With an ADP of #129 overall and #15 among tight ends, he is the perfect low-cost, high-reward target if you punt the position until late in the draft. Others like Taysom Hill and Juwan Johnson could be good last ditch options as well.
Conclusion
While the tight end position is deeper than it has been in a long time, the elite players are still considered elite for a reason. There are only a handful of players who can win you a week, but there are many players at the position who can be weekly contributors as part of a strong, balanced fantasy team. Only you can decide the best strategy for you. But waiting on the position will allow you to draft elite talent elsewhere and build up your core wide receiver and running back rooms while still finding value in a tight end who can get you 8-12 points every week.
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