Declining Production and Age Concerns
Travis Kelce has long been one of the premier tight ends in both the NFL and fantasy football, but several warning signs suggest he is poised to be a bust based on his current fantasy football rankings and his average draft position. Last season, Kelce posted a 97-823-3 stat line over 16 games—his lowest receiving yardage output since his rookie year and by far his lowest touchdown total outside of that season. More concerning, his 8.5 yards per catch and 1.49 yards per route run were career lows, signaling a clear decline in explosiveness and efficiency. Even with steady volume, these numbers reflect a player whose best days are likely behind him.
At nearly 36 years old when the 2025 fantasy season begins, Kelce will be facing not only the typical challenges associated with aging athletes, but also the increased risk of injury and reduced recovery capabilities. While he remains a reliable target for Patrick Mahomes, the Chiefs' offense has evolved, with more weapons and distribution than in years past. Kelce’s historically high fantasy floors have masked the mounting red flags, but expecting him to return meaningful value at his current average draft position of 67.4 is increasingly risky, especially given his overall fantasy football ranking of 87. He finished as only the TE5 in PPR formats last year, a far cry from his run of TE1 finishes that fantasy managers have come to expect.
Draft Cost and Market Expectations
Despite the clear signs of decline, Kelce’s name value continues to inflate his draft stock in fantasy football mock drafts. Many drafters are reaching for him based on past production rather than current reality, ignoring statistical trends and the hard truth of age-related regression. The Chiefs’ offensive scheme could shift further, reducing Kelce's red-zone usage and overall market share. Betting on a dramatic statistical rebound at this stage of his career is extremely risky.
Ultimately, Travis Kelce's draft price in 2025 does not align with his realistic outlook. There are younger, ascending tight ends available later with similar or higher upside. Relying on Kelce to anchor your fantasy roster could leave you frustrated and outperformed by managers who wait on the position or target emerging players. For those referencing the latest fantasy football rankings, the prudent move is to avoid paying a premium for a declining veteran. Don’t let name recognition sway your draft strategy—Kelce is one of the best candidates to disappoint relative to his ADP this season.
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