Draft Strategy: 8th Spot in a 12-team Half-PPR League
As we get closer to the fantasy football season, managers everywhere have either started participating in mock drafts or, in some cases, have begun to kick off their real drafts. If this is you, it’s important to go into your draft with some idea of who you would like to target. If you know your draft position well in advance developing a strategy will be easier. Still, even if it is randomized a half hour before draft time, articles like this can help you strategize from any position. This article will look at the 8th spot in a 12-team half-PPR format. Let’s dive in.
Round 1
With Ja’Marr Chase’s holdout dragging on his ADP continues to drop, which pushes other players up the draft board. This means players like Breece Hall and Bijan Robinson will be unavailable. If they were to fall this far then the decision would be much more difficult. But I believe in drafting wide receivers early in half and full-PPR formats and in this range you’re likely to be deciding between Amon-Ra St. Brown or Justin Jefferson. Both feel pretty safe, but, as things stand, St. Brown comes with less risk. In 2023, St. Brown’s total routes run per game and red zone targets went up from the previous year. This led to 164 targets, 119 receptions, 1,515 receiving yards, and 10 touchdowns. This was good enough for a WR3 finish in all formats. He should probably get picked in the top of the first half in fantasy drafts, so if you can get him after that, he is a value, even as a first-round pick.
Ideal Pick: Amon-Ra St. Brown
Other Options: Justin Jefferson, Ja’Marr Chase, A.J. Brown
Round 2 and Round 3
This is the last chance you’ll have to draft a running back who falls into a hero-RB strategy. If you pass on one here then you’re entering zero-RB territory. My favorite target in this range is Travis Etienne, Jr. Etienne is still just 25 years old and is one of the best dual-threat backs in the league. In 2023, he finished as the RB3 in all formats with 1,484 total yards and 12 total touchdowns and could be even more involved in 2024. Some may try to push you toward a quarterback in Round 3, and there’s merit to that so if you want to go that route, I don’t have a major problem with it. But I would continue loading up on pass-catchers by selecting Jaylen Waddle. Waddle is being undervalued this season because of a disappointing 2023. But he is still a young, elite talent who plays opposite a wide receiver (Tyreek Hill) who will take defensive attention away from Waddle. I expect a bounce-back for Waddle, who could flirt with a top-12 season if things fall right.
Ideal Picks: Travis Etienne, Jaylen Waddle
Other Options: Kyren Williams, Derrick Henry, Isiah Pacheco, Mike Evans, Cooper Kupp, Michael Pittman, Jr.
Round 4 and Round 5
This one is a no-brainer for me. Trey McBride is a tight end who could be the No. 1 target on his team, especially if Marvin Harrison, Jr. takes time to adjust to the NFL. McBride is also only one of a few players who have the upside and opportunity to be the overall TE1. By drafting McBride, you’ll have to pass up some solid wide receivers, but I don’t mind doing that to get a true difference-maker who will give you a weekly advantage and could produce wide receiver-like numbers. Round 5 will be the last chance to secure an RB2 you can feel comfortable starting. Rhamondre Stevenson and David Montgomery are both options here, but I like Montgomery better. The possible emergence of Jahmyr Gibbs has people backing off Montgomery. But Montgomery is coming off a season where he finished as the RB13 with 1,132 total yards and 13 touchdowns. He will continue to be involved on early downs and near the goal line and will be a consistent if unexciting pick for your RB2 spot.
Ideal Picks: Trey McBride, David Montgomery
Other Options: DJ Moore, DeVonta Smith, Tee Higgins, Rhamondre Stevenson, D’Andre Swift, George Kittle
Round 6 and Round 7
After selecting Trey McBride in the fourth round, Kyler Murray becomes my immediate target in the sixth. I’m a big supporter of creating a weekly stack as long as you don’t have to reach too much for it and it’s the right stack. Murray/McBride fits the bill. Murray only played eight games in 2023, but when he was on the field he was effective, finishing with 1,799 yards passing (a 17-game pace of 3,822) and 10 touchdowns. Murray also added 244 yards (a 17-game pace of 518 yards) and another three touchdowns on the ground. Now another season removed from his injury, Murray has top-five upside and stacking him with McBride could pay huge dividends. In Round 7 I would buy the dip on Rashee Rice. He still has an ADP of #80 on some platforms (although it is beginning to rise.) Still, the chance of a suspension seems to be scaring people away in many drafts. But as we get closer to the season, a suspension in 2024 becomes more and more unlikely, making this great value for a player who could be the top wide receiver target on one of the best offenses in football.
Ideal Picks: Kyler Murray, Rashee Rice
Other Options: Jordan Love, Dak Prescott, Tank Dell, Chris Godwin, Calvin Ridley, Raheem Mostert
Round 8 and Round 9
Diontae Johnson is one of my favorite picks in this range. Last season was not great for Johnson due to poor quarterback play, injury, and target competition. Poor quarterback play could still be an issue in Carolina, but injuries are impossible to predict and he should have little to no competition for targets. Getting a WR who could flirt with weekly double-digit targets and has an uncanny way of getting open is something you should not pass up. In Round 9 I’d target Brian Robinson Jr. Last season, he was a top-20 running back in fantasy points per game. In his third year, on an offense led by dual-threat QB Jayden Daniels, I expect him to be even better. We have seen in Baltimore how having a QB who can run can open lanes in the run game. Robinson is a better runner than he’s given credit for and will be heavily involved. Austin Ekeler will be involved as well, but Robinson should be the early down and goal line back, and even catch a few passes. He’s a great value in the ninth round.
Ideal Picks: Diontae Johnson, Brian Robinson Jr.
Other Options: Jayden Reed, Devin Singletary, Javonte Williams, Xavier Worthy, Jonathon Brooks, Rome Odunze
Late Rounds/Recap
At this point in the draft, the goal is to build depth and take risks. This is also when you can take a chance on a rookie QB like Jayden Daniels or Caleb Williams if you’ve chosen to wait on the position. If you do that, it’s smart to get a veteran to pair with your rookie. A few options would be Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff, or Trevor Lawrence. When you get to the later rounds the risk of missing on a selection declines while the reward of finding a hidden gem increases. That’s why rookies in primary roles, players who are just an injury away from fantasy gold, and veterans being overlooked are great players to key in on. If your league plays with a defense and kicker and forces you to draft them, then use your last two picks on them. But if you’re not required to draft them, i like passing on defense and kicker, loading up on a couple more RBs/WRs, watching how the preseason goes, and then streaming the positions.
Possible Options: Keon Coleman, Courtland Sutton, Brian Thomas Jr., Khalil Shakir, Rico Dowdle, Gus Edwards, Blake Corum, Chuba Hubbard, T.J. Hockenson, Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Tua Tagovailoa, Jared Goff
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