Draft Strategy: 4th Spot in a 12-team Half-PPR League
With many re-draft fantasy football leagues drafting soon, preparing and strategizing is important, which means participating in as many mock drafts as possible. Mock drafts are a great way to understand how a draft may play out. They are particularly helpful if you already know your draft position. Of course, mock drafts will never be able to simulate everything that may happen in a real draft. When drafting with real people there will always be head-scratching selections and runs on positions that you weren’t expecting, forcing you to pivot away from your original plan. As you know, you cannot win your league during the draft, but you can make things much easier or more difficult for yourself. This article will discuss the best strategy for the 4th pick in your 12-team Half-PPR league, and who you may want to target on draft day.
Round 1
Drafting from the fourth spot, I'm considering only three names. Those names are Breece Hall, Bijan Robinson, and Ja’Marr Chase. Chase has yet to participate in practice while he waits for a contract extension. If it begins to look like it could extend into the regular season, then he would not be an advisable selection. But assuming things get ironed out, I’d pick Chase. He’s still an elite pass-catcher in the prime of his career, with the upside of finishing as the WR1 this season. If the contract negotiations make you nervous, then I have no problem taking Breece Hall here. He should get a ton of work in an offense that should be vastly improved with a healthy Aaron Rodgers under center. Even though the safe money is on Christian McCaffrey, Hall also comes with elite dual-threat capability and I would not be surprised if Hall is the overall RB1 by the end of the season.
Ideal Pick: Ja’Marr Chase
Next Best: Breece Hall
Round 2 and Round 3
My favorite target in this range is Isiah Pacheco. Pacheco finished as the RB15 in half-PPR formats last season, and with no real competition for touches, he is in line for a heavy workload on a high-scoring Chiefs offense. If Pacheco is unavailable, then select Derrick Henry. Age is a concern but Henry should have a significant role on early downs and near the goal line on an offense that loves to run. Lamar Jackson will vulture a few touchdowns and Henry won’t catch many passes, but he’s still guaranteed 15-20 touches a game and should be able to produce. In Round 3 I’d take another dive in the wide receiver pool and grab Deebo Samuel. Samuel was a top-12 wide receiver last season (top 9 in points per game) and could be even better in 2024, especially if Brandon Aiyuk gets traded. My next choice would be Nico Collins. There are a lot of mouths to feed in Houston, but I still believe Collins will be the WR1 for a team that should put up a lot of points. He is a solid WR2 with the upside for more if Stroud continues to improve.
Ideal Pick: Isiah Pacheco, Deebo Samuel
Next Best: Derrick Henry, Nico Collins
Round 4 and Round 5
In Round 4, if Joe Mixon is available I’m grabbing him. Devin Singletary had success on the Texans last season, and Joe Mixon, who recently signed a three-year, $27 million extension, is a better running back. As the clear lead back on an offense that could be among the league’s best, Mixon is a great value pick at this point in drafts. If Mixon is gone, I’d make a sharp left turn toward tight end and draft Trey McBride. McBride has a chance to be the top target earner in this offense and with a healthy Kyler Murray is one of only a few players with the upside to finish as the overall TE1 and put up wide receiver-like numbers. In Round 5, I’d look to grab my WR3 and draft Tee Higgins. Chase gets all the press, but Higgins who is talented in his own right will be looking to prove he’s one of the best in the league as he plays for a contract. If Higgins is gone my favorite value is James Conner. Conner finished 11th among RBs in half-PPR points per game last season and rookie Trey Benson (his only real competition) could take some time to develop. Look for Conner to be the focal point of the backfield on his way to outperforming his RB20 ADP.
Ideal Picks: Joe Mixon, Tee Higgins
Next Best: Trey McBride, James Conner
Round 6 and Round 7
This is when I typically like to grab my QB. The best option in this range is Kyler Murray. Murray had a down season in 2023, but he missed half the season, and when he was on the field he was pretty good. Now another year removed from the injury that sidelined him and with solid talent around him, Murray could produce both with his arm and legs. He has top 5 upside. If he’s gone then I’d target Evan Engram. Engram was the TE2 last season and could be even more involved in 2024. He is being drafted as a top 8 player but could finish the season top 5. In Round 7, if I got Murray a round before then I’d grab Jake Ferguson. After Ferguson the tight end landscape gets dicey. Plus, if CeeDee Lamb’s holdout extends into the regular season Ferguson would be a steal. If I missed out on Murray I’d target Jordan Love. Love was a true surprise last season throwing for 4,159 yards, 32 touchdowns, and leading his team to the playoffs (including a 48-32 victory over the Dallas Cowboys.) With healthy receivers and a better running game, Love could be even better.
Ideal Picks: Kyler Murray, Jake Ferguson
Next Best: Evan Engram, Jordan Love
Late Rounds/Recap
From this point on you want to be looking for depth and upside. Some of my favorite mid-to-late-round targets are Xavier Worthy, Tyjae Spears, Brian Robinson Jr., Jonathon Brooks, Rome Odunze, Christian Watson, Tyjae Spears, Jaxon Smith-Njigba, Jayden Daniels, Caleb Williams, Gus Edwards, Chase Brown, and Keon Coleman. Every one of these players either has upside, has proven to be a consistent, if unexciting, asset, or could become truly special if the starter ahead of them were to miss time. My favorites among this group are Xavier Worthy, Tyjae Spears, Caleb Williams, and, surprisingly, Gus Edwards. Worthy is already showcasing his explosiveness in the preseason, catching three of six targets for 62 yards and a touchdown in a preseason loss to Detroit. He also added another 11 yards on the ground. He could be involved a lot on one of the best offenses in the league. Spears should produce weekly flex numbers, with the upside for more, much more, if Tony Pollard were to miss time. Williams is looking poised and relaxed this preseason and with the number of elite weapons at his disposal he could be a major surprise. Edwards is a lead running back on a team that should run a lot. Fantasy managers have nearly forgotten him but could produce solid, consistent flex numbers, and if the touchdowns fall his way, perhaps more. Nothing is set in stone and we won’t know how things will play out until Week 1, but these are great names to keep in mind in the later rounds when you are looking for upside and consistency.
Filed under: Free Articles
