Draft Strategy: 1st Spot in a 12-team PPR League
When preparing for the fantasy football season it’s smart to mock draft as often as possible. While it’s impossible for a mock draft to simulate everything that will go on during a draft with your league-mates, they can help you get a better understanding of the value of certain players and when specific positions tend to be targeted. They are also a good, low-risk way to try out different strategies, while allowing you to try your hand at different positions in the draft. This is especially beneficial if you know your draft spot well before the draft. But even if you don’t, moving around in the draft order can help prepare you for wherever you end up once the draft is randomized. Every spot in the draft has positives and negatives associated with it. If you pick early in the draft you are guaranteed a top-tier player or two but you also have to wait a long time between picks. The middle of the draft allows you to grab solid players throughout it but doesn’t offer you as many chances to reach on high-upside players. Many people think drafting late is bad, but while the wait can seem excruciating, you also often have the chance to pick up two top 15-20 players with every turn. In this article, I will look at the 1.01 in a 12-team PPR league. I will also assume a standard roster size of 1 QB, 2 RB, 3 WR, 1 TE, 1 Flex, 1 K, I DST, and 5-7 bench players. Let’s look at the best way to approach this draft spot.
Round 1
This pick should not take very long. There will be those who make the case for CeeDee Lamb or Tyreek Hill here, but Christian McCaffrey is one of one and is coming off a huge year where he had 2,023 total yards with 21 total touchdowns. This was good enough to make him more than 100 PPR points better than any other running back in 2023. There isn’t another player with that type of upside at any position. There is no denying that in recent years the running back position has lost value both in real football as well as in fantasy, but McCaffrey is an exception. If anything he’s gained in value. As an elite receiver and rusher McCaffrey is the most dominant back in the NFL. In 12 of his 17 games last season McCaffrey scored over 20 fantasy points, hitting 40+ twice. In PPR formats the consensus is to load up on receivers, and that’s understandable unless you can get McCaffrey. McCaffrey allows you to load up on receivers later in the draft while getting the most consistent and most upside player in fantasy football. Also, as a true hero-RB target there is a lot more flexibility in the draft moving forward.
Ideal Pick: Christian McCaffrey
Round 2 and Round 3
When the draft comes back to you there are a couple of options. Ok, perhaps three if you buy into the idea that grabbing Sam LaPorta or Travis Kelce here is worth it. I don’t. There is some good value at tight end later in drafts and I would rather take my chance with one of those players. That leaves grabbing Travis Etienne (if he falls this far) and a wide receiver or going wide receiver back-to-back. But Etienne often gets taken before the 24th pick, which leaves wide receiver. There are some solid options. Chris Olave, Drake London, Deebo Samuel, and Nico Collins are all usually available. Each comes with a great deal of talent and upside but also with some major questions. Olave is still catching passes from Derek Carr, Samuel and Collins are on teams with plenty of mouths to feed, and London has yet to prove himself as a true No. 1 WR in the NFL. If Brandon Aiyuk gets traded then Samuel becomes more interesting but having selected McCaffrey in the first round already, I’d go another way.
Ideal Picks: Chris Olave, Drake London
Round 4 and Round 5
With McCaffrey and a couple of young, high-upside wide receivers there are a lot of ways you could go in rounds four and five. If Trey McBride is available he is worth a serious look. McBride is one of four, maybe five, tight ends this season with true overall TE1 upside. He has very little competition for targets, with rookie Marvin Harrison Jr., being the only person currently on the depth chart who could threaten McBride’s target share. He was the TE7 in PPR formats last season with 106 receptions for 825 yards and three touchdowns. Now, with a healthy Kyler Murray for an entire season, I would expect McBride’s numbers to improve, especially in the touchdown department. Then after securing McBride, turn your sights on a safe No. 2 RB. Joe Mixon, Alvin Kamara, and Kenneth Walker should be available. All three are going back-to-back-to-back. Mixon is on the best offense, Kamara is the best pass catcher, and Walker is arguably the best talent. Neither is a bad choice, but I prefer Mixon and the numerous opportunities he should have to score this season.
Ideal Picks: Trey McBride, Joe Mixon
Round 6 and Round 7
With McCaffrey, two wide receivers, Trey McBride, and a solid RB2, the six-seven turn is a good time to attack the QB position and continue adding pass catchers. Jordan Love, Kyler Murray, Dak Prescott, and Brock Purdy should be available. But with an ADP of 96th overall, Purdy would be too much of a reach at this point. Love would be a reasonable choice after finishing in the top-5 at the position last season. Dak Prescott comes with a solid floor. Still, with McBride as your tight end, stacking him with Murray is hard to pass up. A weekly stack can give you a major advantage when it hits. Murray also has a bit more rushing upside than any of the other names I mentioned. As for your second pick, the PPR format matters. I tend to lean toward pass catchers and find value at running back later. Some good options are Jayden Reed, Hollywood Brown, Calvin Ridley, Chris Godwin, and Rashee Rice. Reed is in a crowded receiver room, Brown and Rice are competing for targets, and reports have stated that Ridley and QB Will Levis are having trouble creating a connection. That leaves me with Godwin who is said to be in mid-season form and playing more out of the slot. He could be a very sneaky pick.
Ideal Picks: Kyler Murray, Chris Godwin
Late Rounds/Recap
As you approach the mid-to-late rounds you’ll be looking to fill out your roster. There’s very little risk to the players this late in the draft, so taking big swings is a great way to be successful as the season progresses. There are many ways to approach these rounds. You can select rookies who will have an immediate chance to make an impact. You can target players on high-powered and high-scoring offenses. You can pick up handcuffs to established starters who are one injury away from significant time. However you choose to approach it, make sure to take a few risks. No one ever said, “I won my fantasy league by playing it safe.” With a core group of Murray, McCaffrey, Mixon, Olave, London, McBride, and Godwin you will have a lot of wiggle room for error in your later picks, so take some chances. But please don’t make the mistake of being that person who thinks they got one over on everybody by picking Justin Tucker or the San Francisco defense a round or two earlier than advised. Defense and kicker should be your last two picks. Other than that there are bound to be some late-round gems. Go find them.
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