Draft Strategy from the 1st Spot (Half-PPR)
In fantasy football, receiving the first overall pick might evoke conflicting emotions.
In a standard snake draft format you won’t get to pick again until the end of the second round. But while that’s the case, you will get back-to-back selections throughout the draft.
While that can provide a bit of hope since you get the top pick in every other round, it also means you have 22 picks in between picks. This could make it difficult to navigate the best picks from round to round. But don’t let this draft position scare you too much. It can be a highly beneficial draft spot if you go into it with a strong strategy. Having the first pick in every other round can lead to great talent and value. With that in mind let’s take a look at how you may want to approach the No. 1 pick.
Round 1
The first overall pick is both easy and complicated. The best part is that going into the draft you know at least one of the players you’ll be drafting, so you can start preparing and building around that player the second you realize you hold the pick. Who you choose at No. 1 will have huge implications for how your draft ultimately plays out. The choice comes down to two players: Christian McCaffrey or CeeDee Lamb. The smart money is on McCaffrey. He has proven to be a fantasy cheat code and he plays a position that is increasingly thin as we see more and more teams moving away from a primary ball carrier and taking an RBBC approach. But if you’re opposed to drafting running backs this early due to the high injury concern at the position and want to pivot to Lamb, know that how you approach the 2/3 turn will change. Still, you can’t go wrong here. Both McCaffrey and Lamb, when healthy, will be difference-makers at their respective positions, but depending on who you choose your final roster could look pretty different.
2/3 Turn
This is where things get interesting. After you choose your first player, you will see several players go off the board that you were hoping would fall to you. If a top 20 player (based on ADP) falls to you then that’s a no-brainer, especially if they are a running back or wide receiver. But where you go here will, at least partially, depend on who you picked at No. 1. If you went McCaffrey then you should go WR/WR. You will also be facing down a top QB like Jalen Hurts and a top TE like LaPorta in this range, but I tend to think this is too early to draft those positions in most formats, so I’d pivot to the other skill positions. If you went Lamb at No. 1 then things get a bit more difficult because passing up on a RB locks you into a Zero RB build and in that scenario, LaPorta becomes a bit more enticing than he would normally be. If you’re staring down Travis Etienne or Derrick Henry then I would probably choose one of them, but going LaPorta/WR and picking up value RBs in the later rounds is also justified.
Round 4/5 Turn
Every draft is different, but if you’re drafting against knowledgeable fantasy managers then there should be four or five quarterbacks off the board by this point. You could draft a QB here, but I still tend to think it’s too early, especially in 1QB leagues. But with names like Anthony Richardson and C.J. Stroud available you might be swayed to pull the trigger. However, I would encourage you to wait a round and a half to two rounds later and grab someone like Joe Burrow, Dak Prescott, Kyler Murray, or Jordan Love. But if you went Lamb and LaPorta with two of your first three picks then going QB here might make sense because it plays into your Zero RB strategy and locks up your 1-off skill positions. If you went McCaffrey and passed on LaPorta then you could be tempted to go tight end here, but this feels a bit rich for Mark Andrews or Dalton Kincaid. Assuming you have flex spots, I’d encourage punting the tight end position and going RB/WR or QB/WR here.
Round 6/7 Turn
When you get to this point in the draft you’re always faced with the question “Should I fill my entire starting roster or pick solid bench players who could develop into weekly options?” This all depends on where your holes are on your starting roster. If you have yet to select a QB and/or TE then the players available will have a huge impact on your selection. If the draft has been QB-heavy and you’re looking at players like Brock Purdy or Jared Goff then it might be prudent to wait until the next turn when you’ll be faced with signal callers like Tua Tagovailoa or Justin Herbert. By season’s end, they are likely to finish close to, or even ahead of, Purdy and Goff so I don’t see a lot of value in drafting a QB here. You could go tight end, but I firmly believe in “be first or be last” when it comes to tight end. There are very few elite difference-makers at tight end and if you pass on one of them I would rather be the last manager to get one and build up my other skill positions first. If you’ve taken a QB and a TE already then going RB/WR to flesh out those spots is an easy choice.
Later Rounds
First of all, you should always choose your kicker and defense in the last two rounds. Sometimes I’ll even forego one of those positions to take a flier on a player who could benefit from the preseason. There are always waiver wire options at K and DEF/ST and they are nearly impossible to predict, so sometimes the right choice is to punt one of the positions and make a free agent pick up before the season. If you have passed on your QB and/or TE up to this point then the 8/9 turn will likely be when you address those positions. If you only want to choose one position then go QB. I am willing to wait on TE because there is not a big difference between those TEs selected in the eighth round and those chosen at the end of the draft. The other positions are where what you did at No. 1 comes into play again. If you adopted a Zero RB approach then loading up on later round, high-upside players is a good thing to do here. This is also the point in which you take a chance on either high-upside rookie wide receivers or forgotten veterans who could find success in new systems.
Recap
While there’s no foolproof strategy in fantasy football, there are ways to try to plan for different scenarios. Knowing who your first pick will be will help in that preparation and influence whether you go Zero RB, Hero RB, or use a more balanced approach. Of course, like with any strategy, the key is to remain flexible and let the draft come to you. Since there are so many players taken between your picks there will be times when you may have to reach a little to get a player that helps your team. That’s ok. Fantasy football is won or lost by how you manage the team you have, so as long as you stay focused, engaged, and approach the draft with some flexibility you will be fine.
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