Another football season is coming to a close, and what better way to celebrate the end of the fantasy year by throwing in some player picks to make this game even more interesting. Super Bowl 56 will be played in Las Vegas and features a young and up-in-coming Bengals team against a renewed Matt Stafford and the Rams.
We will be looking at the Pick 'Em Over/Under prop picks from Underdog Fantasy and choosing some of our favorites. Let’s dive into some of the prop picks that should give us a decent chance of getting it right (and maybe win you some money).
Matt Stafford 39.5 Longest Completion - OVER
There are two things going for Matt Stafford in this prop pick. First, he has the 1900-yard receiver Cooper Kupp at his disposal. Second, he is facing a middle-of-the-pack pass defense at best. He also has Odell Beckham Jr. and Van Jefferson. OBJ is a great possession receiver who has found some new life as of recent, and Jefferson is a speedster who has beaten opposing defenses for long touchdowns a few times this season. With all that being said, the chance Kupp takes a short pass 40 yards or Jefferson gets hit deep is pretty good. I’ll be hammering the over on this one.
Cam Akers 16.5 Receiving Yards - UNDER
I was looking back at the Rams running back stats and they really don’t see a ton of passing work. However, Cam Akers, at least in the playoffs, has had two games over 16.5 yards receiving and two games under 10 yards, so it will really depend on how the Bengal defense approaches this game. With all the weapons the Rams have, I just don’t think Akers will get a ton of passing work. Fellow Running Back Darrell Henderson has a decent chance to play, and Sony Michel will also probably see the field a bit, especially if the Rams build a nice lead. I think the Rams won’t have a tough time moving the ball, so Akers shouldn’t see too many receptions, leading me to believe he won’t hit 16.5 receiving yards.
Cooper Kupp 107.5 Receiving Yards - OVER
Cooper Kupp put on a clinic this year, almost hitting the 2000-yard mark in the regular season. Out of the 20 games he played in, Kupp has only gone under 107.5 receiving yards seven times. Three of those games came at the beginning of the season (one could argue the chemistry with new Quarterback Matt Stafford hadn’t fully developed). Out of those seven games, five of them were at least 90 yards receiving, meaning he wasn’t far off. I’m not sure if the Bengals will try and shut him down completely, but it’s safe to say Kupp will be highly targeted. With his play-making ability, Kupp is a pretty small risk to hit this over.
Joe Burrow 288.5 Total Yards – UNDER
Joe Burrow is a great Quarterback, there is no denying that. But the Rams’ defense is much, much better than the competition the Bengals have faced the last few weeks. Las Vegas, Tennessee, and the Chiefs all are pretty bad pass defenses, and Burrow only went over 288.5 yards once. Now I understand this is total yards and includes rushing yards, but besides last week against Kansas City (25 yards rushing), Burrow doesn’t run all that often. And with Aaron Donald on the opposite side, he probably won’t be running much in this one. Add to that the #1 Rams’ pass defense and Burrow will need some broken coverages to hit the 288.5 over.
Joe Mixon 3.5 Receptions - OVER
As I mentioned above, the Rams’ defense is one of the best, so if the Bengals want to win, they will have to use every weapon imaginable. That includes Joe Mixon, who faces a tall task running against the Rams’ front seven. The Bengals may need to rely on Mixon’s pass-catching abilities. Mixon didn’t really see many passes until late in the season, but now over the last five games (including playoffs), Mixon has gotten at least three catches. He is averaging 5 targets over that time, so it’s safe to say Burrow will at least look his way a few times in this one. I’m thinking Mixon will be a big part of the offense on Sunday.
Ja’Marr Chase 28.5 Longest Reception - OVER
My first thought was “Chase probably sees a lot of Jalen Ramsey”, which makes me believe Ja’Marr Chase probably won’t have a huge game. That doesn’t change for me when looking at this prop pick, but I do believe Chase has the speed and play-making ability to catch a pass over 28.5 yards. All it takes is one pass over the middle that Chase turns into a big gain to hit this over, so I think it’s worth the risk. I would stay away from total yardage unless you believe Chase > Ramsey, but this longest reception pick is a lot safer.
Tyler Boyd 39.5 Receiving Yards - OVER
Tyler Boyd has had some solid games this season but is often overshadowed by Ja’Marr Chase and Tee Higgins. I’m going to assume that the Rams will watch those two much closer, which should leave Boyd open for some short passes that could lead to a nice day. Add to that Tight End C.J. Uzomah’s status is up in the air, so Burrow may need to lean more heavily on his trio of receivers. Boyd has been quiet in the playoffs, but he did have 800 yards receiving this season so he for sure can put up big numbers if given the chance. As I said before, the Bengals faced a lot of easier defenses in recent weeks, so Chase and Higgins feasted. This one could be much different.
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