Overvalued Wide Receivers based on ADP
Many factors lead to fantasy success. One such factor is being able to project which players are on the verge of a breakout and who may be likely to bust. When considering whether or not someone can be viewed as a potential bust, we first have to look at their draft price. If a player is drafted in the double-digit rounds and fails to perform, it’s hard to see that player as a bust because the cost of obtaining them is not very steep. So you can’t make the case that they didn’t meet expectations.
So when I use the word bust, I refer to players who I believe are going much higher in drafts than where I think they’ll finish. The following are five players who could struggle to provide production worthy of their draft position.
Davante Adams, Las Vegas Raiders (ADP WR11, 17th Overall)
With WR Davante Adams currently sitting at No. 17 overall there is a lot of potential for him to bust. For Adams to be worth his early second-round draft price, he will have to produce low-end WR1 numbers, and that may be too much to ask from a 31-year-old wide receiver on a bad team with major quarterback questions, even if that receiver is Adams. If you judge Adams solely on what he has done over the last eight seasons it’s understandable why fantasy managers still value him as high as they do. But his current ADP puts him ahead of players like Nico Collins, Chris Olave, Mike Evans, Jaylen Waddle, and Deebo Samuel, who are all in better situations. Much of Adams’ production over the last two seasons with the Raiders has relied on volume, but that volume could take a hit with the arrival of generational talent Brock Bowers. There’s also the possibility that we start to see a decline in ability, something that happens to everyone, and even if that decline is minimal, it could be enough to make his Round 2 draft capital too high of a price to pay.
Stefon Diggs, Buffalo Bills (WR19, Overall 33rd)
Stefon Diggs is coming off one of his worst fantasy seasons. While he did finish the 2023 season as WR10 overall in half-PPR he also averaged just 13 points per game which made him WR15 on a points-per-game basis. Despite being the clear target leader for the Buffalo Bills (30%) Diggs was unable to deliver something we had come to expect from him: consistency. With the move from Buffalo to Houston things could get worse. Diggs will have tough competition for targets from Nico Collins and Tank Dell making his role in the Texans’ offense unclear. Diggs will also turn 31 years old during the season. His ADP of No. 33 overall (third round) as the WR19 seems high for a player with so many question marks. It’s the classic case of a player still being drafted based on his name and not the reality of the situation. There is still a chance for Diggs to produce as a WR2, but with so much uncertainty, his age, and other well-established, talented targets on this team drafting Diggs in the third round feels like a trap.
Cooper Kupp, Los Angeles Rams (ADP WR20, 35th Overall)
You may be sensing a theme. This season I’m avoiding aging wide receivers whose situation could be worse in 2024. In 2023, WR Cooper Kupp took a step back. Some of that was due to an ankle sprain and hamstring issues, but at 31 years of age, there’s no guarantee that Kupp will be able to return to his previous form.
Besides the injury concern, teammate Puka Nacua emerged, who had an amazing rookie season, finishing as the WR4 in half-PPR and serving as the No. 1 target for Matthew Stafford for much of the season. I only expect him to improve in his second season. That doesn’t mean that Kupp can’t still produce. Last year, in 12 games with Kupp and Nacua both active, Kupp received a 23.4% target share and finished as the WR23 in points per game. That isn’t far off from his 2024 ADP, but it feels like he’s being drafted at his ceiling which is not recommended, especially for an aging player with stiff competition. If you can get him as your WR3 there could be some value there, but as a mid-to-low-end WR2, the price feels a bit high.
Jayden Reed, Green Bay Packers (ADP WR35, 70th Overall)
Jayden Reed had a solid rookie season. In 2023, Reed finished with 64 receptions, 793 receiving yards, 11 carries, 119 rushing yards, and 10 total touchdowns. As the primary slot receiver for the Packers, Reed was heavily targeted, with a 25% target share, all while sometimes playing a part-time role. He’s a young, talented wide receiver who has shown he can be explosive. So why do I see him as a potential bust? Draft capital and competition. Reed is currently being taken in the sixth round, which at first doesn’t seem too early for a player with some possible upside. But the Packers just went out and signed RB Josh Jacobs, so we could see a more balanced attack, with Jacobs even stealing some targets away from Reed. Christian Watson and Romeo Doubs are still there, and with the reports surrounding Watson’s hamstring, there is some hope that he will stay healthy all season. If he does, he’s arguably the best wide receiver on the team and he’s going a round and a half later. Reed could take a step forward, but there is reason for some caution when approaching him in drafts.
Marquise Brown, Kansas City Chiefs (ADP WR36, 71st Overall)
We would love to forget Marquise “Hollywood” Brown’s 2023 season. It was a season plagued by inconsistent quarterback play and injuries which led to an uninspiring 7.8 fantasy points per game. Now with a move to the Chiefs, he (and fantasy managers) are hoping for more. The quarterback play will be better but I need to hear more than “Mahomes is his QB” to buy into the hype. Throughout his NFL career Brown has largely been a disappointment in fantasy circles. While he is entering his prime he is coming off two years with the Cardinals where he failed to finish in the top-40 at the position in either season, most recently finishing as the WR52. Then there’s the competition. The Chiefs like to spread the ball around and have multiple receiving options headlined by future Hall of Fame TE Travis Kelce and a pair of young, electric wide receivers in Rashee Rice and Xavier Worthy. Rice is likely to serve a multiple-game suspension to start the season, so Brown could have some early season production, but when everyone is on the field and healthy, it could be tough sledding. This means that even as the WR36 is off the board, he is being drafted closer to his ceiling than his floor.
Average Draft Position
Average Draft Position (ADP) data tells you where players are being taken in fantasy football drafts.
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