4 Players On Track to Break Records This Year

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It's difficult to know when to sell high on a player. They may continue to perform well or they may just be on a hot streak.

However, when a player is on pace to break an NFL record, that might signal that they will drop off soon.  So far this season, there are four quarterbacks and receivers on track to break single-season records.

The fact that no running backs are at record-setting pace indicates that the league is continuing its new passing trend that I wrote about earlier.

Here are the outstanding passers and receivers so far. The projections below are their per game averages multiplied by 16 games:

Passing Yards

NFL Record: 5,084 (Dan Marino)

Player Season to-date Projected 16 Games
Drew Brees 1,343 5,372
Jay Cutler 1,275 5,100

Both Brees and Cutler have looked good so far, but there is a good chance they will slow down to less Marino-like paces.

Receiving Yards

NFL Record: 1,848 (Jerry Rice)

Player Season to-date Projected 16 Games
Brandon Marshall 398 2,123
Greg Jennings 482 1,928

Obviously Marshall's performance is closely tied to Cutler's above, and they're both on track for big seasons. However, just one or two bad games will throw them off this pace.

No Running Backs

It's not surprising that after only four weeks some players are above record-setting pace. What is surprising though is that they are all in the passing game. Running backs are completely absent.

The leading running back in the league is Michael Turner, who has 422 yards through 4 games. That's only on pace for 1,688 yards, which is well off the record of 2,105 yards.

Sell High or Let It Ride?

Is it time to sell high on Brees, Cutler, Marshall, and Jennings? Or do some of them have a legitimate chance at maintaining their pace?

Perhaps Jay Cutler and Brandon Marshall can knock off the passing and receiving yardage records similar to how Brady and Moss broke the single-season touchdown records last year.

However, if you think they are more likely to slow down, then now is the time to trade them away.

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Categories: projections, stats